The WaPo gang asks the presumably rhetorical question, “Will this government shutdown ever end?”
The list several milestones that could force lawmakers’ hands:
- Friday, October 31: Our uniformed military members will quite likely miss their first paycheck
- Saturday, November 1: The Affordable Care Act marketplace opens without the expiring subsidies in place, wherein those who rely on that for health insurance will see something like a 30 percent price hike
- Tuesday, November 4: Election Day in Virginia and New Jersey
- Tuesday, November 21: The House-passed continuing resolution, which has majority support in the Senate but is being filibustered by Democrats, expires. At which point, we start from scratch.
It seems obvious to me that the first is the most critical. As best I can tell, we’ve never been in this position. While we’ve had many shutdowns since the Carter administration decided that the Antideficiency Act mandates closing the government during lapses in funding, we’ve generally passed defense appropriations before troops felt the crunch.
I was talking over the weekend with a buddy who supports a line unit, and their leadership is having discussions about what happens if soldiers miss two or three paychecks. Many are barely managing their funds as it is. How can we demand that they not only go without paychecks but actually spend money driving to work, maintaining their uniforms, getting haircuts, and the like? It’s just unsustainable.
I’m more skeptical of the next two milestones.
The anointed Democrat has been favored over the anointed Republican* for months, and while there’s some evidence the race has tightened a bit, the Democrat will almost certainly win. The expected happening is not going to change anything.
As for the ACA milestone, I suspect it’ll get fixed. The nature of subsidies is that people quickly feel entitled to them. But lawmakers unwilling to budge over troops forced to work without pay aren’t going to suddenly feel motivated by folks paying somewhat higher healthcare premiums. (Indeed, federal employees are expected to see another big jump in our premiums, as we have every year for awhile. Congress doesn’t seem to care.)
The November 21 deadline—three weeks from tomorrow—is one my colleagues and I were eyeballing at the outset of this fiasco. Not so much as a deadline but as a point when we might have to start this cycle all over again.
*I’ve been following gubernatorial elections for more than four decades and can not recall one in which neither party had a contested primary. Two decidedly lackluster candidates somehow gathered support and didn’t attract opposition.
