Virginia holds their gubernatorial elections the year after the presidential elections every cycle. Polling has begun, and early indications favor the likely Democratic nominee. PluribusNews reports: Dem leads early Virginia governor polls.
Early surveys show former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the race to replace Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), in what is likely to be the marquee gubernatorial matchup of this year’s off-year elections.
A poll conducted for the Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University released Friday shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by a 44% to 34% margin.
A separate survey for the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University, released Jan. 16, shows Spanberger leading by a 44% to 39% margin.
Two other surveys conducted in December and January show Spanberger leading by smaller margins.
It is crazy early to take such numbers to the bank. Indeed, neither candidate has been officially nominated yet, as the primaries are not until June.
Still, this caught my eye because I am watching the race with interest because of the established near-perfect pattern going back until at least 1977 of the state electing a governor of the party opposite the one in the White House. The only exception was 2013 when Democrat Terry McAullife won when Obama was in office. I discussed all of this here back in 2021.
It is an interesting example of how the electoral calendar can affect outcomes.
Just something to watch in 2025.
