Early VA Governor’s Race Poll Dem-Leaning

Will the pattern persist?

Virginia holds their gubernatorial elections the year after the presidential elections every cycle. Polling has begun, and early indications favor the likely Democratic nominee. PluribusNews reports: Dem leads early Virginia governor polls.

Early surveys show former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the race to replace Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), in what is likely to be the marquee gubernatorial matchup of this year’s off-year elections.

poll conducted for the Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University released Friday shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by a 44% to 34% margin.

A separate survey for the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University, released Jan. 16, shows Spanberger leading by a 44% to 39% margin.

Two other surveys conducted in December and January show Spanberger leading by smaller margins.

It is crazy early to take such numbers to the bank. Indeed, neither candidate has been officially nominated yet, as the primaries are not until June.

Still, this caught my eye because I am watching the race with interest because of the established near-perfect pattern going back until at least 1977 of the state electing a governor of the party opposite the one in the White House. The only exception was 2013 when Democrat Terry McAullife won when Obama was in office. I discussed all of this here back in 2021.

It is an interesting example of how the electoral calendar can affect outcomes.

Just something to watch in 2025.

FILED UNDER: 2025 Election, US Politics, ,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Rob1 says:

    Ugh. No more poll prognosticating.

    1
  2. Kathy says:

    @Rob1:

    A hundred thumbs up.

  3. DK says:

    If it’s not a poll by best-in-the-businsess Ann Selzer, I don’t want it /s

    3
  4. Andy says:

    I’m always conflicted about off-year elections. On the one hand, I don’t want to increase the influence of national politics on state and local elections. On the other hand, off-year elections have lower turnout, and especially at the local level, it is sometimes entirely intentional to game the results.

    1
  5. James Joyner says:

    @Andy: I think that’s doubly true of off-off-year elections like Virginia’s. People are exhausted by the Presidential cycle and largely tuned out. At least in 2026, there would be an election for the US Senate seat held by Mark Warner and for all House seats. But, in 2025, it’s just the Virginia governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general.

    1
  6. Jen says:

    I think Spanberger is great and I hope she wins. That said, this feels…early.

    4
  7. MarkedMan says:

    @Andy: Turnout isn’t everything. Another way to put it is that during an off year election only the people most interested in the outcome will drag themselves to the polls. The ones who don’t have made it plain they don’t care all that much about who sits in those seats.