Sunday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Sunday, February 2, 2025
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34 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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So my main thoughts that I’m going to ponder today are purely self-centered. Do I sell the index funds in my Roth and rollover IRAs and invest them in short term securities (around 4.5-5%) until this storm blows over or just keep them in a balanced portfolio. Another way to look at it: Is the downside risk much higher than the possibility of gains.
BTW, this is the risk I was talking about a couple of days ago that makes people unhappy. Having to assume the risk of planning for your old age when pensions used handle that risk.
This is some shitstorm we are in.
@Scott:
Having weathered several deep dips, either shocks or recessions, I’ve always left the investments alone and they took care of themselves, the market always comes back. But the truth is, if you were to pursue the sell strategy, you’re too late, the market will likely open in a rout tomorrow and what you get for your portfolio will likely be near the market’s low.
I call and write my Senator regularly to let them know my views and opinions. Invariably I’m polite. But now I feel like just calling and yelling: “What the f… are you doing, John Cornyn. Just sitting on your ass while this idiot President systematically destroys this country? I didn’t serve a career in the Air Force just to see the country crumble. Get out there and do something, you stupid potted plant.”
Or something to that effect.
@Sleeping Dog: I invest in broad market ETFs, both domestic and international, and leave them alone. But this is new and I am nervous about it. The futures open at 6pm ET today. We’ll know then the extent of Trump idiocy on the markets.
During WWII, the Germans created a puppet government in occupied France in the town of Vichy. Since then “Vichy Government” implies weak people doing the bidding of an evil regime, merely to enjoy the trappings and perks of government office without any responsibility.
The Republican Party is our Vichy Government
We’re witnessing how economic policies affect everyday people. Hope decision-makers get it right.
@MarkedMan: Just last week in response to some Facebook post (I think it was the Hegseth nomination) my representative posted, I called him a Vichy Congressman. Also commented that while he may have been brave on the battlefield (what is it, BTW, with all these Navy Seals running for Congress), he was a political coward. I need to stay away from social media. It brings out the worst in me.
On January 21, 2021, Matthew Yglesias posted on Twitter
@MarkedMan:
Welcome to Vichy America
@Kingdaddy:
Mel Brooks joked, “There’s something Vichy about the French.”
It looks like something similar will be said about the Republicans (and possibly all Americans) in the future.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/female-pilot-in-crash-trump-blames-on-dei-was-in-top-20-of-army/
Stock market, crock market! I have a vacation trip scheduled in eight weeks. It’s all paid for. Will there be ATCs by then? I will lose a lot of money if I cancel now, but that’s better than crashing. My trip is to Canada; maybe I should not fly to an enemy state. I am certainly not making any more travel plans till things settle down.
That’s the NYT’s take on their poll. Some other interesting bits:
– 53% of Republicans thing Trump will help them personally. That’s a vulnerability.
– The number of GOPs and Dems who expect the economy to improve during Trump’s second is identical, 29% and 30%.
– There is a huge gap on FP with Republicans overwhelmingly isolationist.
Here’s where the NYT lede comes from, and it’s not just ‘Americans’ but ‘Democrats’.
Which of the following issues are most important to you personally? Please select up to three.
Just Democrats:
Economy 36%
Health Care: 36%
Climate Change: 25%
The State of Democracy: 21%
Housing: 17%
Taxes and Abortion both at 16%
Guns: 14%
Education, Immigration, Polarization all at: 13%
Crime and Racism tied at: 12%
Student loans: 6%
LGBTQ issues: 5%
Ukraine: 4%
Censorship and the Middle East tied at: 3%
Democrats have leaned into issues that even Democrats DGAF about. Percentages vary of course, sometimes dramatically, but the hierarchy of concerns is roughly similar between GOPs, Dems and Indies. It remains, the economy, stupid.
Clearly Democrats need to work on their economic issues. When both Dems and GOPs have the same expectation of an improving economy under Trump, we got problems.
@CSK: Now I wonder, can an estate bring a defamation suit? I sure hope so.
@Jay L Gischer:
As far as I know, you can’t libel the dead.
@Slugger:
All Terrain Cows?
Subtlety and bigotry are difficult bedmates. Their child is bald faced hypocrisy.
@Gustopher:
Aren’t all cows all terrain? Four hoof drive, high clearance (unless udders are very full), a lot of demonstrated off-road capability, and in many terrains they can live off the land.
@Rob1:
So, basically VP Eyeliner is saying; “the helicopter crew was well-qualified and lily-white, but somewhere we will find someone who fits our bullshit narrative.”
In the meantime anyone who licks President Doughboy’s elevator shoes is given immense power for which they are wholly unqualified for.
@Rob1:
I think we can just skip the investigation.
I can’t wait to see how they blame the inevitable consequences of the Trump tariffs on DEI. I’m guessing DEI hire Herman Cain’s last words were “tariff your neighbors.”
Also, men are becoming women to get those DEI jobs — because there is just no place for a white man in our society.
Sensitivity towards human dignity on the chopping block —- but just watch Trump’s DoD bring back references to the Confederacy.
I feel that everyone should be aware of this:
@Michael Reynolds:
A necrophiliac serial killer otter. Sounds like a Trump cabinet member.
Here’s the latest MAGA theory to explain the plane-helicopter crash: The CIA did it as a warning to Trump that they can kill him anytime they want,
Not explained by this theory is why they’d want to give him warning of their intent.
@CSK:
Because they are so stupid they think we live in the movies?
@Beth:
They’re also convinced that the heli pilot was promoted to captain solely because she was a lesbian Communist Democrat.
https://bsky.app/profile/chrishudsonjr.bsky.social/post/3lh7bp3ktzc2k
@CSK: Sigh, not that facts matter, but promotion to Capt (O-3) is automatic at 4 years time of commissioned Service across all Services–unless one’s Commanding Officer has serious reservation about the officers psychological fitness or they’ve committed a crime or been formally reprimanded. 99%+ of officers make Capt.
@Jim Brown 32:
I know; I have a nephew in the army. But do facts matter to a MAGA?
On news that seem to belong to more normal times, Boeing has reached a deal to acquire Boeing Wichita, aka Spirit Aerosystems.
It’s a stock swap, plus Boeing taking over Spirit’s debt. Very much like how Boeing acquired McDonnel Douglas…
The opening snark is explained thus: Boeing Wichita was the division of Boeing that made fuselages and other components for Boeing’s aircraft. it was sold off as a cost-cutting measure (beats me) in the early 2000s, and renamed afterwards Spirit Aerosystems. in the 20 or so years that elapsed, Spirit began to make components for Airbus and a few others.
Of course, we live in current times and not the good old days of -checks notes- two weeks ago. So notice all news items mention “regulatory approval pending.” Two weeks ago that meant one thing. Today it may mean something else. Boeing isn’t acquiring the plants that make parts for Airbus and others, only those that make components for Boeing. I can see someone in the tinpot tyranny DOJ and DOT figure that Boeing needs to own such plants, the better to trade war against Airbus along with Europe.
@Scott:
@Sleeping Dog:
As predicted:
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures plummet after Trump hits Canada, Mexico, China with tariffs
The general mood on BlueSky is best summarized by the Simpsons clip with Ralph Wiggum saying “I’m in danger”
Meanwhile, on the Puget Sound Socialist Rifle Association website:
The Puget Sound John Brown Gun Club might be a’moldering in its grave.
Eh, who needs training?
Also, Google reports that 88 Tactical in Omaha, NE is “busier than usual.”
Just ran across this…
So in addition to the recent revelation that the soon-to-be Attorney General received about $3 million in trump media shares, now the FBI Director nominee gets about $800 thousand in shares “as consideration for services provided.” Is there any doubt that this bought-and-paid-for Justice Department will bend the law to the will of its leaders’ benefactor?
@CSK:
New head of Coast Guard?