Sunday’s Forum

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. drj says:

    While Trump and friends are working hard to destroy the international liberal order, as well as the rule of law at home (but hopefully not hard enough!), it is easy to miss what an over-the-top evil country Israel is becoming.

    Right now, they’re pretty close to introducing mandatory death sentences (in practice for Palestinians only, of course) for terrorist offenses to be issued by military courts, with the sentences to be executed within 90 days and without the possibility of pardons or commutations.

    Meanwhile, the Jerusalem Post is publishing op-eds openly calling for ethnic cleansing. It’s not radical, it’s just science:

    The only way Israel can ensure how the Gaza Strip will be governed, and who will govern it, is to govern it itself. Moreover, the only way Israel can govern the Gaza Strip without becoming an external oppressor of “another people” is to remove “the other people” from the confines of the Gaza Strip itself.

    This is the only feasible path to durable deradicalization of Gaza.

    This is not radical right-wing radicalism. It is merely sound and sober political science.

    All this, of course, in addition to starting an illegal war that is wrecking the global economy and preparing for what is likely a permanent occupation of southern Lebanon.

    I was never much for questioning Israel’s right to exist, but if this is what they want to be, I’m not so sure anymore.

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  2. Gavin says:

    The Epstein Files are not in Iran.

    4
  3. charontwo says:

    GCC and Ukraine now allies

    The geopolitical and security architecture of the Middle East underwent a profound and irreversible rupture in the first quarter of 2026. For decades following the Second World War, the region operated on a simple “oil for security” doctrine: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states guaranteed the free flow of global energy, and the United States provided an ironclad security umbrella. Today, that paradigm has effectively collapsed.

    ​The catalyst was Operation Epic Fury, a massive, coordinated military campaign launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026. Despite frantic diplomatic efforts by GCC states to avert the conflict, the operation immediately spiraled out of control. It exposed the structural vulnerabilities of the Arabian Peninsula and paved the way for a highly unconventional geopolitical actor to emerge as the Gulf’s new security guarantor: Ukraine.

    The sheer volume of these attacks exposed a critical flaw in the GCC’s defense strategy. For years, Gulf nations invested billions in the world’s most sophisticated American air defense architectures, such as the Patriot and THAAD systems. While excellent against advanced aircraft and ballistic missiles, they are economically and strategically useless against massed swarms of cheap drones.

    ​The math simply does not work for the defenders. The Iranian military utilized Shahed-136 drones, which cruise at roughly 185 km/h toward static infrastructure and cost a mere $30,000 to $50,000 to manufacture. In stark contrast, a single Patriot PAC-3 interceptor costs between $3.7 million and $4 million, while a THAAD interceptor costs $12.7 million. In just the first sixteen days of the war, the US and its partners fired 402 Patriots and 198 THAADs, burning through 40% of their pre-war THAAD inventory and spending nearly $5 billion just to swat down cheap drones.

    Ukraine possessed something the Gulf desperately needed: unmatched expertise in destroying the exact same Iranian-designed Shahed drones devastating their cities. Beginning in March, Ukraine deployed 228 counter-drone experts across the Middle East. They didn’t fight; they advised on radar integration, shared combat data, and showcased Ukrainian interceptor technology.

    ​This led to Zelenskyy pitching an “experiential barter.” Ukraine would provide the technology, co-production licenses, and tactical expertise to secure Gulf airspace. In return, the GCC would invest massive capital into Ukraine’s defense sector, guarantee energy supplies, and transfer their high-end Western air defense missiles to the Ukrainian armed forces.

    Ukraine’s technological offerings permanently invert the cost-exchange ratio that had paralyzed the Gulf. Instead of firing a $4 million missile at a $30,000 drone, Ukraine offered ultra-low-cost, highly effective alternatives.

    ​The vanguard of this arsenal is the P1-SUN (SkyFall) interceptor. Manufactured for roughly $1,000, this vertically launched quad-motor drone can reach speeds of 450 km/h to physically ram low-speed UAS threats like the Shahed. Similarly, the STING (Wild Hornet) interceptor is a high-subsonic, first-person view drone costing between $1,000 and $3,000, heavily utilized against loitering munitions.

    ​To protect the critical maritime domain, Ukraine offered the Magura V7, modified with an American-made “Bullfrog AI” turret. This autonomous platform creates a mobile surface-to-air defense network against low-altitude maritime aerial threats, boasting an 800-meter engagement range and firing 850 rounds per minute—a perfect solution for offshore oil platforms.

    The Collapse of the American Monopoly

    ​The GCC’s pivot to Ukraine has severely disrupted the historical dominance of US defense contractors. Initially, Wall Street viewed the conflict as a windfall; stock prices for prime contractors surged, with Lockheed Martin rising 3.37% and RTX Corporation (Raytheon) jumping 4.71% in early March. They secured massive emergency DoD contracts and enjoyed rapid backlog growth.

    ​However, this short-term profitability masked a fatal structural deficiency: US primes simply cannot build weapons fast enough. RTX’s capacity is limited to producing roughly 1,000 Patriot interceptors per year—a number the coalition consumed in mere days. They face years-long lead times and highly rigid supply chains. Consequently, companies like Lockheed Martin face a severe risk of losing market share in the counter-UAS space, relegated solely to providing bespoke, low-volume ballistic missile defenses.

    ​In contrast, the Ukrainian defense sector operates with incredible agility. SkyFall is currently capable of scaling production of its P1-SUN interceptor to 50,000 units per month, capturing the high-volume market via direct GCC contracts and localized production. Wild Hornet utilizes rapid prototyping and overnight software iterations to establish indigenous supply chains that are entirely independent of restrictive US ITAR regulations.

    Ultimately, the first quarter of 2026 shattered the illusion of an exclusive American security umbrella. By partnering with Ukraine, the Gulf states aren’t just buying weapons; they are securing their autonomy. As middle powers forge direct, consequential alliances that bypass traditional superpowers, the GCC-Ukraine nexus stands as the ultimate testament to a new, definitively multipolar world.

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  4. Jay L. Gischer says:

    An Iranian drone and missile attack appears to have destroyed an AWACS on the ground in Saudi Arabia.

    The aircraft cost about a billion dollars. Zelensky is saying that he is certain that the Russians are providing targeting information to the Iranians. The Russians took satellite photos of the base three times before the attack.

    2
  5. charontwo says:

    @drj:

    What about the U.S. right to exist? Israel is not the only state controlled by a right wing war mongering minority.

    Plus similarly motivated nutjobs such as Pete Hegseth.

    2
  6. charontwo says:
  7. drj says:

    @charontwo:

    What about the U.S. right to exist?

    If it’s Trump and Trump-alikes ever after, at some point that becomes a valid question, too, of course.

    I think the most fitting comparison is South Africa, though.

    Should the rest of the world have respected the right of the Republic of South Africa to exist in its pre-1985 form? After all, don’t White Africans deserve a homeland, too?

    If they could have done it without apartheid, I would have been at least somewhat sympathetic to that argument. But if apartheid remains their sine qua non, too bad for them, I guess.

    3
  8. Gavin says:

    Very apt comparison also given S Africa’s many attempts to conquer the territory of all their neighbors with the explicit money and war materiel support of the USA.

    2
  9. charontwo says:

    @Gavin:

    Along with all the rocket and missile attacks S Africa’s neighboring states were subjecting them to.

    1
  10. Daryl says:
  11. charontwo says:

    Update:

    Nance

    Trump’s Invasion of Iran is Imminent

    UPDATED: Men, weapons and resources are moving that make invasion of Iran inevitable.

    However, the mission to seize Iranian nuclear materials inside Iran has taken on the flavor of a bold fantasy from a military action thriller novel. Right wing commentaor talk is rife with images of a bold WWII-style combat jump and daring Special Forces raids into an underground complex to find and disarm Iran. As this week has prgressed more and more discussion of this option, designed to “Secure Israel’s” and, I guess, America’s safety from an atomic bomb that does not yet exist.

    It’s a form of Chicken Hawk madness that has taken hold in some parts of the administration, that bold Tom Clancy-style attacks or what is needed.

    ASSESSMENT: But recent monitoring of US troop movements leads me to believe that the United States is about to carry out a highly risky parachute jump into Iran itself, as I outlined in two previous substacks.

    The mobilization of what could be as many as 1,000 US special operations personnel, including Navy Seals, Army Rangers, and Delta Force, is an indication that this operation is being planned seriously and could be launched at any time.

    Be prepared not just for war, but for an invasion of Iran by thousands of US troops and a death toll that will likely be unacceptable.

    03/29 URGENT UPDATE:

    Last night, Donald Trump tweeted that he wanted all of his followers to watch a special edition of Mark Levin’s right-wing talk show. Levin has been championing American attacks on Ron in order to secure Israel’s security. According to many national security riders, it is Levin, along with crazy woman, Laura Lumer that has Trump’s ear on this war.

    … I watched Levine’s video which you can see below. It is an open call for the United States to parachute into around and sees nuclear materials which I first wrote about three weeks ago.

    … It turns out it is this very proposal that former director of the national Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent quit his job over. He saw that the United States was being led around by a nose ring by Bibi Netanyahu, and that it was to the detriment of American security.

    All of the signs are in place now that this campaign, which Levine says is not a “invasion” of Iran is going to go ahead.

    Hold onto your hats.

    America is about to go through a very bumpy ride

    2
  12. charontwo says:

    @Daryl:

    Depends who/what is considered the target of the threat.

  13. Michael Reynolds says:

    @drj:
    Israel is pretty clearly pushing for Iran to become a failed state, for civil war, for the country to be torn apart by warlords, perpetually impoverished. They want Iran to be another Syria. Yep, that is evil. Israel has shed the last vestiges of liberal European Zionism. Israel has gone Middle Eastern, they are no longer so out-of-place sandwiched between Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.

    Netanyahu is not a Saddam or an Assad, but he is now the moral equal of MBS.

    @Jay L. Gischer:
    The Air Force ignored their own best practices leaving planes exposed that way. Arrogance and incompetence.

    2
  14. drj says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Israel has gone Middle Eastern

    I’m not sure I would express it in geographical terms, but something has certainly changed.

    Around fifteen years ago, I was on holiday in Bolivia, where I shared a canoe for a couple of days with a bunch of Israeli ex-conscripts who were celebrating the fact that they were civvies again.

    They didn’t speak English very well (let alone Spanish) but they were accompanied by another Israeli who had settled (more or less, I think) in South America and who had made a career out of guiding his compatriots on their post-conscription holiday trips – something of a tradition considering that back then anyone remotely suitable got conscripted for no less than three years.

    This guide told me stories about how quite a few of the former conscripts he accompanied tended to get black-out drunk while crying about the vicious shit they had been ordered to do on the occupied West Bank, mostly.

    He also told me stories about other ex-conscripts who were proud of what they had done. And that the latter group seemed to get bigger over time.

    I think about this quite a bit.

    It also reminds me of Star Wars and the dark side of the Force (and the countless martial arts movies that espouse similar ideas). I don’t think it is a coincidence that George Lucas belonged to a generation whose fathers often had first-hand combat experience.

    Even if you crush your enemies, there is still a price to be paid. For a certain kind of politicians that might be easy to forget, though.

    Likelier still: they don’t even give a fuck.

    4
  15. dazedandconfused says:

    @charontwo:

    As a quasi rule of thumb, any dissertation on defense against the swarms of Shaheds that doesn’t mention the APKWS is probably a politically driven desired narrative, and not a serious look at deets.

    It’s been the mainstay of Ukraine’s war against those cheap drones, and anybody who suggests the Ukrainians are routinely lobbing Patriots or THAADs at those things hasn’t been paying attention. I think it quite likely the Saudis and Gulfies have opted for the more expensive stuff in their defense spending though. Just a wild guess, but they tend to always ask for nothing but the best.

    This error, if it happened, we can safely bet our houses is being corrected as fast as possible at the moment.

    1
  16. charontwo says:

    @dazedandconfused:

    Didn’t I just already post this pic?

    JPEG

    Which does not change the likelihood a lot of flag draped boxes will start arriving very soon.

    Come on fathers don’t hesitate

    Send them off before it’s too late

    Mom be the first one on your block

    To have your boy come home in a box

  17. Gustopher says:

    For some ungodly reason, I accidentally wandered to the r/SeattleWA subreddit the conservative Seattle subreddit (it was linked from r/DragonsFuckingCars, a much better subreddit that doesn’t involve conservatives, just dragons and cars and their relationships).

    Anyway, they’re all whining about taxes and liberals and blaming everything on Seattle and Washington being uniparty blah blah blah, and it occurs to me that blue state Republicans are as fucking useless as the leftists who complain about Democrats being a right wing fascist party — they’ve just removed themselves from any and all power in favor of purity. They want to run a MAGA choad that can never win, and they don’t even have a closed primary to blame for this.

    A Third Way Shithead promising social liberalism and fiscal conservatism and “common sense” solutions to complicated problems would actually stand a decent chance of getting elected.

    I don’t particularly want a Third Way Shithead to get elected, but it could happen. And it would give the MAGA choads a fair bit of what they say they want — lower gas taxes, worse education and rising syphillis rates. But rather than going for what is possible, and building from there, they want all of it, right now, and they won’t get any of it. It turns out that high gas taxes are more popular than MAGA.

    But it surprises me that we don’t have well-funded Bloomberg style people running in the blue areas, not on a Republican ticket (less popular than gas taxes), but as their own party. And maybe even if deep red areas, although I suspect the Bloomberg types are generally fine with Republican control.

    (A Manchin-esque party in Alabama really might be competitive, given their desire to elect stupid people. Sure, it would be hard to compete with someone whose first name is “Coach”, but Manchin once held up legislation to try to get work requirements on the Earned Income Tax Credit. Could call it the Very Stupid People’s Party.)

    Also, there’s a subreddit about dragons fucking cars. It’s exactly what you think it is, and it is hysterical for about 3-5 minutes.

    2
  18. Michael Reynolds says:

    @drj:

    Even if you crush your enemies, there is still a price to be paid.

    To pat myself on the back just a bit, this is a point we made many, many times in Animorphs and that I made as well in Gone and Front Lines. It is a terrible thing to orphan a child, no matter how righteous your cause may be. Necessary evil is still evil.

    I wonder if there is some individual in the US military who knows he is responsible for the error that resulted in bombing that girl’s school in Iran. How the fuck do you carry that for the rest of your life?

    1
  19. JohnSF says:

    @drj:
    If Israel resorts to “ethnic cleansing” in Gaza, it will lead to European economic sanctions.
    About a third of all Israels exports and mports are with the EU.
    Their loss would be economically crippling for Israel.
    In addition, Israel could kiss goodbye to any hope of reconciliation with any Arab or Muslim state.

    Israel would become a pariah state, dependant on alliance with the US alone.
    And likely a Republican US alone.
    (And given the rise of the “groypers” in MAGA, relying on the Evangelical Zionists to secure even the Republicans looks a reckless bet)

    This is probably better regarded as scream of incoherent rage against intractable problems, than a serious policy proposal

    4
  20. JohnSF says:

    @charontwo:

    America is about to go through a very bumpy ride

    As someone once said: “I’ve got a bad feeling about this.”

    1
  21. JohnSF says:

    @dazedandconfused:

    Just a wild guess, but they tend to always ask for nothing but the best.

    Also, given the stories told to me by various ex-RAF guys who spent time either as Saudi military support contractors, or BAE reps, another factor is that big-ticket weapons systems leave plenty of room for skimming.

    3
  22. JohnSF says:

    @Michael Reynolds:
    I think I’ve mentioned before, I once met a WW2 vintage RAF Bomber Command operations staff planner.
    One of his jobs was assisting in the programme for bombing transport targets prior to D-Day.
    It was known, at all levels, that this would involve killing large numbers of not just civilains but nominally allied French civilians. He said this was something they were well aware of, and attempted to minimise
    Nonetheless, about 50,000 French civilians were killed.
    The transport damage was probably vital to the success of the Normandy campaign.
    How do you balance out such things?
    I never asked him.
    I did not think I had the right to ask.

    2
  23. charontwo says:

    @JohnSF:

    Also, given the stories told to me by various ex-RAF guys who spent time either as Saudi military support contractors, or BAE reps, another factor is that big-ticket weapons systems leave plenty of room for skimming

    The Trump family and their pals are making really really big bank from this “operation.”

    Discussed in detail here:

    Schmidt

    There is a transcript button so you can read instead of listen.

    ETA: Including, BTW, heavy investments in drone manufacturing.

    1
  24. dazedandconfused says:

    @charontwo: Certainly the Gulfies will be sending money in exchange for expertise, and Ukraine can use all the money it can get.

  25. Rob1 says:

    @Gavin:

    The Epstein Files are not in Iran

    Made ya look!

  26. Rob1 says:

    A dark thought here. As it is being reported Trump is ramping up troop deployment, but not on a scale at this point to make any kind of difference to Iran’s existential imperative given it’s likely residual armament — and if this war becomes a rapidly deteriorating locus for the global economy, energy needs, fertilizer, food security, and Trump’s own political NECK — what real “failsafe” exists anymore against preventing this madman from nuking Iran in an attempt to bring his whole self-made mess to a halt? The moron once spoke of nuking a hurricane for crying out loud. And he has surrounded himself this time with supplicants and morons. The militant religious right seems like they’d be amenable.

    Trump’s has a history creating big messes and leaving bag holders. He did so throughout his business life. He continued the practice as the 45th President. We are in the midst of perhaps Trump’s most colossal, bigglyest self-made mess ever. It wouldn’t be surprising to learn that the discussion of “possible use” hasn’t already arisen in the Oval Office. This current debacle could blanket the world with “bag holders.”

    4
  27. Rob1 says:

    The shitstorm inside the shitstorm

    The Iran War Could Collapse the United States in the Next Six Months

    Simon Johnson, MIT economist and 2024 Nobel laureate, put it plainly: “There is no excess capacity [for producing fertilizer] anywhere in the world that can fill that gap.” Maurice Obstfeld, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, said the effects will be most devastating in low-income countries where agricultural productivity is already challenged, and that adding this cost component produces “the prospect of significant food shortages.” [..]

    We are looking at grocery inflation of at least 20 percent. We are starting from a baseline of 54 million people who already cannot reliably eat. And we are cutting the safety net rather than expanding it. The cross-national evidence puts the number of food-insecure Americans, under those conditions, between 75 and 90 million.

    —-

    War with Iran disrupts fertilizer exports as U.S. farmers prepare for planting season

    “If you had sat us down before and said, ‘Hey, I want you to think of the nightmare scenario for fertilizer. What would it be?’ It would be this exact event during this exact time of year,” said Josh Linville, who oversees the global fertilizer department at the brokerage firm StoneX.

    Linville says urea that had been expected to arrive in the United States next month, in the peak of planting season, won’t come.

    The Fertilizer Institute predicts that U.S. farmers will be short some 2 million tons of urea this spring.

    America was playing with a faulty loaded gun by re-electing Trump. It was bound to go off at anytime.

    3
  28. charontwo says:

    @charontwo:

    Here is some more regarding drone manufacturing and the Trump family:

    Denver Riggleman

  29. charontwo says:

    @charontwo:

    And more:

    Denver Riggleman

    THE PRESIDENT’S SONS ARE GETTING RICH OFF A WAR THEY HELPED START.

    Eric Trump invested in an Israeli drone company 11 days before the U.S. attacked Iran. That’s not a coincidence. That’s a business model.

    LET ME GIVE YOU THREE DATES

    February 17, 2026. Eric Trump quietly makes a strategic investment in Xtend — an Israeli AI drone company with an active Department of Defense contract. XtenD builds autonomous drone systems. It is bidding for more. Also on the investor sheet— Unusual Machines, a drone maker in the U.S. with ties to Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump’s brother. In November 2024, Unusual Machines announced that Donald Trump Jr., who was already one of the company’s investors, was joining its advisory board.

    February 28, 2026. The United States and Israel launch coordinated surprise airstrikes across Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed. The war begins. Both sides deploy drones not as a supporting tool but as the primary delivery mechanism of violence. The New York Times will later call drones “a defining feature” of the conflict.

    March 14, 2026. Anduril Industries — in which Donald Trump Jr.’s investment firm 1789 Capital holds a major equity stake — receives a 10-year Army enterprise contract worth up to $20 billion. The award came fourteen days into a war that made drone manufacturers the hottest sector in defense.

    Three dates. Eleven days between Eric’s (brother with him) investment and the bombs. Twenty billion dollars.

    Dean and I want you to sit with that. Not because we are claiming to know what was in Eric Trump’s head on February 17th. What we are claiming is that the pattern — family investment, then war, then contract — is not the shape of coincidence.

    I’ve spent two decades in intelligence work. I know what coincidence looks like. This isn’t it.

    I want to be precise about something. In an intelligence context, when I lay out a timeline, I’m not asserting motive. I’m asserting pattern. Patterns tell you where to look. This one tells me to look very hard.

    HOW WE GOT HERE: THE NOVEMBER 2024 PIVOT

    This didn’t start with the Iran war. It started the month Donald Trump won the presidency.

    In November 2024, Trump Jr. joined the advisory board of Unusual Machines — a drone component maker he already held an investment in. He received 200,000 shares of stock as compensation for the advisory role. Forbes later reported the company had essentially created the board position specifically to give him a role, then announced at least $15.2 million in military-linked orders shortly afterward. The company’s stock tripled.

    etc., etc.

    Gee, maybe Trump might have taken us to war even without Bibi’s nagging.

  30. Michael Reynolds says:

    President Donald Trump made several telling remarks Sunday in an interview with the Financial Times, revealing some of his administration’s potential war plans as it relates to Iran.

    “To be honest with you, my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people,” Trump told the Financial Times, the outlet reported.

    Trump told the outlet that his “preference” in his administration’s war against Iran would be for the United States to “take the oil,” invoking a comparison to the U.S. takeover of Venezuela’s oil industry in January when the Trump administration halted Venezuelan oil shipments to the Cuban government, and started oil shipments to Israel “for the first time in years.”

    Said this was where he would come down, four weeks ago..

  31. Michael Reynolds says:

    I had in my head that it was uranium enriched to 60%, which you wouldn’t want to sleep on, but won’t just up and kill you. But it’s uranium hexafluoride. Look it up. It might as well be nerve gas. I would imagine given the June bombing that a lot of this stuff may be partially or completely buried. Picture the operation involved in digging up canisters of very deadly shit and carefully loading it on helicopters while the hills are full of drone operators. Someone here mentioned Dien Bien Phu the other day. I mean, if they can pull it off, drinks all around. But if I were 82d Airborne I think I’d be concerned.