Trump, Hamilton, and the Electoral College

Don’t blame the primary author of The Federalist for our current mess.

Unrepresentative Democracy and Child Labor

We’re getting weird policies almost nobody is asking for.

The Theory of the Case Against Trump

Legal analysts are skeptical.

Never Trumpers Never Win

Being against something just isn’t enough.

Another Reason to Dislike the Electoral College

“Red States” and “Blue State”

Trump Remains Odds-On Favorite for 2024 Republican Nomination

As tired as we may be of him, his nominating electorate appears ready for another round.

Weak Parties, Part Gazillion

“The GOP” is not a singular unit.

Pence Subpoenaed by Trump Special Counsel

An aggressive but expected move.

On Polling and Media Narratives

Some thoughts on polling and the news since 2016.

The Chaos is the Point

The anti-McCarthy holdouts have no end game.

Election Reform Through the Back Door

Electoral Count Act reforms are “hidden” in the bipartisan budget bill.

Trump Committed Four Crimes, Say January 6 Committee

The ball is now in Merrick Garland’s court.

Trump Facing Multiple Criminal Charges

The January 6 Committee is expected to make a minimum of three referrals.

What Now for Stacey Abrams’ Model?

Her emphasis on turnout has helped other Democrats but she’s a two-time loser.

Rehnquist and the ‘Independent State Legislature’ Theory

The late Chief Justice was right; his successors are wrong.

Minority Rule Isn’t a Myth

The will of the majority can prevail even in a skewed system.

The Tip O’Neill Era and Why Governing was Easier

A reminder of how things (specifically the party system as a whole) have changed.

Red and Blue States Aren’t Permanent

The margins for 2024 are likely to be slim. But that hides a larger story.

Marginal Differences Magnify Individual Races

We used to (usually) know the results on Election Night because the outcomes were clearer.

Democrats Outperform Expectations

The Needle is Broken

Biden Warns Democracy at Stake

Is the President governing like he means it?

Imagining a Stolen 2024 Election

It’s easy if you try.

Why Not Direct Democracy?

Would bypassing politicians altogether make the system more just?

lego people crowd lego people crowd

Fear and Resentment of a Changing America

A revealing comparison of Republican districts that deny and don’t deny the 2020 outcome.

A Basic Theory of Voting Behavior

And a reminder of the role of political parties.

Roberts and the Court’s Legitimacy

Roberts may not like it, but SCOTUS is political and does have a legitimacy problem.

Sarah Palin, Ranked Choice Voting, and the Perils of N=1 Analysis

More details from the Alaska special election.

N=1 Means, Well, Not a Lot

No one should draw conclusions about RCV from the AK special election.

American Civil War II is Unlikely but Not Impossible

A repeat of 1860 can’t happen. But something even worse could.

Nonhierarchical Parties and the Problems of Candidate Selection

American parties are coordination problems with shared branding.

We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Constitution

Is it time to call the whole thing off?

Feelings Don’t Care About Facts

“America can survive the demagogues themselves, it’s their audience that will kill us.”

Non-Majority Presidents

Are plurality winners less legitimate than popular vote losers?

Independent State Legislature Theory

A theory floated in Bush v Gore could radically change American elections.

Defending the Constitution Against All Enemies, Foreign and Domestic

What should conservatives who can’t support the party of Trump do?

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More Numbers (Trump and Biden)

More intraparty support numbers.

Abortion and the Filibuster

Assuming they had the votes, should Democrats carve out yet another exception?

Democrats in Disarray, Abortion Edition

Here we go again . . . .

Minority Rule in a Winner-Take-All System

How long can the unsustainable be sustained?

Democracy and the End of Roe

This will just reinforce minority rule in the US.

January 6 Committee Divided on Which Non-Starter Recommendations to Make

They’re taking their eye off the ball.

America’s Gun Problem is Here to Stay

The obstacles to fixing the problem are many.

Airpods Airpods

Podcast Recommendation (Plus: More on US Democracy)

Ezra Klein discusses the dynamics of American conservatism in historical perspective. Plus, he helps illustrate a key problem that we have in thinking about American politics (IMHO).

No, Congress Won’t Create an Abortion Right

At least not right away. But it’s quite possible by 2040.

The Least Dangerous Branch?

The apparently eminent demise of abortion rights has reignited an old debate.

New York’s Gerrymandering Disarmament

When doing the right thing is the wrong thing.

An Action-Oriented Prescription

A follow on from yesterday.

Voting Underway in French Presidential Runoff

The incumbent should win easily but turnout is low and the consequences dire.

Chip Roy’s Texts

More willingness to subvert the election.