Harris Leads But Could Still Lose

Nate Silver is throwing cold water on the convention bounce.

Biden’s Second Term? Or Trump’s?

A Republican columnist is angry that Trump, not Harris, is being seen as the incumbent.

[Graph of Monmouth Survey on Enthusiasm for 2024 Presidential Race] [Graph of Monmouth Survey on Enthusiasm for 2024 Presidential Race]

The Problem Of A High Floor & Low Ceiling

A graph that shows why Trump should be concerned

Kamala’s New Map

Democrats suddenly have multiple paths to victory.

No Joe-mentum

The Democrats are in a good place heading into their convention.

Trump Campaign’s Alleged Role In The Whisper Campaign Against Shapiro

Stoking anti-Semitism for political gain

Polls, Damn Polls, and Aggregators

There’s something for everyone in the post-debate surveys.

Polls Continue Trumpward Shift

The slide continues.

Post-Debate Polling Trends

The changes are minor but in the wrong direction for the guy who’s behind.

More Data

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

Presidential Immunity and the Catch-22 of American Politics

All of the legal remedies are impossible.

Biden Isn’t Dropping Out

More post-debate thoughts and a reminder about how US parties work.

Trump Leads Biden Going into Tonight’s Debate

He’s doing better in all the swing states but one than in 2020.

Kennedy Won’t Qualify for Debate

That’s some catch, that Catch-22.

Crystal Ball Moves Trumpward

It all comes down to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Formal group photograph of the Supreme Court as it was been comprised on June 30, 2022 after Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson joined the Court. The Justices are posed in front of red velvet drapes and arranged by seniority, with five seated and four standing. Seated from left are Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr., and Justices Samuel A. Alito and Elena Kagan. Standing from left are Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil M. Gorsuch, Brett M. Kavanaugh, and Ketanji Brown Jackson. Formal group photograph of the Supreme Court as it was been comprised on June 30, 2022 after Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson joined the Court. The Justices are posed in front of red velvet drapes and arranged by seniority, with five seated and four standing. Seated from left are Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr., and Justices Samuel A. Alito and Elena Kagan. Standing from left are Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil M. Gorsuch, Brett M. Kavanaugh, and Ketanji Brown Jackson.

Age and the Supreme Court

Gaming the appointment process.

Trump’s Path to 270

It’s depressingly short.

Biden Rejects Commission on Presidential Debates

The President wants an alternative schedule and format.

An Observation or Two on SCOTUS

Well, more than two…

Is Our Problem a Lack of Public Virtue?

Are we betraying the Founders?

Maine Joins ‘National Popular Vote’ Compact

A longstanding project inches forward.

Nope Labels

Who could have seen this coming?

Nebraska Considers Winner-Take-All Electoral Vote

Partisanship and representation in conflict.

Airpods Airpods

Podcast Recommendation

“The Rise of ‘Middle-Finger Politics’”

Third Parties and Ballot Access for 2024

And back to thoughts on section 3.