Outside the Beltway

In idea whose time is gone.

Ignorance and motivated reasoning are never a good combination

They won’t tell you who’s going to be President. They’re still useful.

The skews may offset.

The election analyst is out on a limb with Trump.

The release of a second set of figures has created a lot of hyperbole.

Compared to any available alternative, yes.

Grouping House Members by their voting patterns.

People around the world are more skeptical about governing institutions.

It’s harder than I would have thought.

The S&P and Nikkei are at all-time highs. Economists warn that it won’t last.

A breakdown of new survey data.

He appointed a third of the Justices but has the worst record before them in modern history.

The media’s favorite Republican is doing better in some polls than the other candidates losing to Trump.

All states but one receive more in federal money than they pay out in taxes.

The personnel bureaucracy reinterpreted regulations.

Some thoughts on polling and the news since 2016.

Plus misleading reporting.

The numbers aren’t real. Not yet, anyway.

Manipulating public opinion with dubious survey research.

What we believe and what we say we believe are often not the same.

Who should have the final say on the law of the land?

Why would a group that claims it has evidence of ballot harvesting refuse to turn it over?

We did much better in 2020 and worse since 2021 than we thought.

Why clearing criminal records makes economic sense

It depends on how you do the math.

Politicians controlling lines control voters (instead of voters controlling politicians).

We’re three short years from the next election.

Multiple indicators point to a decline in the representativeness of the American system.

The Pundit’s Fallacy meets opportunism.

Two prominent media pollsters are hedging their bets.

A new poll shows meaningful shifts in public attitudes.

Joementum.

The Tara Reade allegations haven’t hurt the presumptive nominee with the party.

The counting methodology is flawed and that’s assuming honest reporting.

The 45th President polls worse than other prominent Republicans.

For the third time since 2015, Donald Trump gets Politifact’s “Lie Of The Year.”

The Commission on Presidential Debates has released the schedule and criteria for the General Election debates. As usual, the criteria are heavily biased in favor of the major party candidates.

The August Jobs Report came in below expectations as other economic statistics point to a slowing economy.

A Federal Judge in Virginia has found the terrorist watch list unconstitutional.

He could lose the popular vote by an even larger margin in 2020—and still coast to re-election.

Just over nine years after retiring from the Supreme Court, former Associate Justice John Paul Stevens has passed away at the age of 99.

Not surprisingly, the President’s opening speech of the 2020 campaign was filed with lies.

May’s Jobs Report came back with disappointing jobs growth, suggesting that the economy may be slowing down.

Jobs Growth in April was much higher than expected, seemingly putting to rest for now fears that the economy might be slowing.

The President has hit a dubious milestone barely two years into his administration.

Scholars argue that the shifting media landscape is largely to blame for our political crisis.

As problematic as some of what we know about the internal workings of the White House may be, it isn’t a coup.

President Trump is apparently a Hurricane Maria Truther.

A new study concludes that the total death toll from Hurricane Maria was vastly higher than previously reported.