Outside the Beltway

The Most Important Trump Number

Steven L. Taylor
18

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Remember how I have noted (twice, in fact) that one of the factors one has to consider in terms of Trump’s poll numbers is the current fragmentation of the field?  In other words, leading a field of more than a dozen, even with numbers in the mid-20s raising the question of whether he can garner second and third preference support when the other candidates start falling away.

Well, here’s at least one answer to that question that I missed from last month:

From the linked piece:

Among Republicans — you know, the people who decide the identity of their party’s presidential nominee — Trump has a net negative 42 rating.  As in 23 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of Trump while 65 percent(!) had an unfavorable one.

Also:

Just one in ten Republicans (11 percent) have no opinion of him. So, Trump is both extremely well known and extremely disliked by the members of the party he is running to represent.

Unless that changes drastically, Trump has no shot at the nomination (but then again, we knew that already, yes?).

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18 responses to “The Most Important Trump Number”

  1. gVOR08 Avatar
    gVOR08

    Facts to an internet fight again, Steven. Got nothin’ to add, but I’d like to go on record as up-voting this.

  2. michael reynolds Avatar
    michael reynolds

    Steven, but that’s a very old poll. Nate Silver has a take that agrees with you on the basics but has very different numbers. Using polls from Iowa and NH, he has Trump with a net favorable of 4 points.

  3. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @michael reynolds: Fair enough, but based on those numbers and that piece, I think the basic thesis that I am offering here holds.

    As the piece states:

    On Twitter yesterday, I likened Trump to the band Nickelback: disliked by most people but with a few very passionate admirers.

    I still think he caps out at roughly where he is at: mid-20s.

    Also from Silver:

    Relatively few voters say Trump is their second choice,3 and many Republicans dislike him.

  4. Neil Hudelson Avatar
    Neil Hudelson

    “Every party needs a pooper and that’s why we invited you….”

  5. Moosebreath Avatar
    Moosebreath

    For Trump, the most important number is always Number One!!!

  6. HankP Avatar
    HankP

    I hope you’re right, but there seems to be a really large market for assholes this election.

  7. JohnMcC Avatar
    JohnMcC

    Possibly related: A video of a New Hampshire focus group discussing The Donald as if he were the second coming:

    http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-nh-focus-group

  8. Liberal Capitalist Avatar
    Liberal Capitalist

    Trump don’t care… He doesn’t like ’em either !

    Who needs them ! They’re fired !

    If he wants someone to vote for him, he’ll buy them !

  9. Pinky Avatar
    Pinky

    I’m surprised how high Huckabee and Cruz are in favorability. I’ve said before that Rubio or Walker could attract both conservatives and moderates, and if I were either of them, I’d be pretty happy with this poll.

  10. Slugger Avatar
    Slugger

    How about money? I would like to see how many contributions he has garnered. In American elections the bankroll is more important than polling numbers. I believe that the bank account is a highly reliable predictor of election outcome. I doubt that the Donald will spend his own money.

  11. OzarkHillbilly Avatar
    OzarkHillbilly

    @Pinky: I can see Rubio, tabula rasa that he is, but what about Walker makes you think he might be attractive to moderates? The man is as hard right as they get in this election and he has the record to prove it.

  12. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Slugger:

    In American elections the bankroll is more important than polling numbers.

    Well, actually no. Money is very important, but not more important than actual support.

    Ask Presidents Perot and Forbes, for example.

    And even if we want to talk more recent history: go back and note that Gingrich had a great deal of cash infusion from major donors and it was not enough to sustain his run for the nomination.

    Money is necessary, but not sufficient.

  13. Pinky Avatar
    Pinky

    @Steven L. Taylor: Just for clarity: Slugger was talking about donations, not personal wealth.

  14. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Pinky: Well, I suppose Slugger can clarify as he wishes.

  15. Pinky Avatar
    Pinky

    @OzarkHillbilly: Walker as hard right as they get? I don’t see it. Maybe if you view him primarily as a union-buster, but even then, as hard right as Santorum and Cruz? I’m thinking he’ll come of as primarily a budget-balancer who doesn’t put a lot of emphasis on social issues.

  16. Slugger Avatar
    Slugger

    @Steven L. Taylor: Dr. Taylor, maybe one of your grad students can do the looking and run the statistical correlations between standing in the polls twelve months ahead of the election, money in the kitty at that point, and outcome for gubernatorial, senatorial, and presidential elections. I think HRC was ahead of Obama in dollars in 2008, but otherwise I think the r value for dollars is better than for the polling numbers. I am willing to bet a $250 donation to Doctors Without Borders on it.

  17. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Slugger: As I said: money is necessary, but not sufficient.

  18. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    To be a bit less glib: I suppose it depends on what you are asking. Are you saying who has the better chance at this stage of the game to persevere to the end? Then yes, the fact that Bush, for example, has a lot more money than Kasich absolutely matters.

    Of course, part of my current thesis is that the polls don’t yet mean all that much, so perhaps that figures into your statement as well.

    The money calculations are different, however now versus 6 months from now v. a year from now.

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