The Return of the Economics President
Inflation is up.
Via NBC News: Inflation hits 3.8%, outpacing wage growth for the first time since 2023.
Inflation surged to 3.8% in April, its highest level in nearly three years, according to data released Tuesday, as the war in Iran causes a ripple effect across the economy and energy prices surge.
[…]
April’s inflation rate means that prices are now rising faster than wages for the first time since 2023, which could exacerbate the affordability crisis that has already been gripping consumers.
The pace of wage gains has been slowing over the past two years. In November, wage growth continued to rise at a pace of almost 4%. April’s jobs report, which was released on Friday, showed that wage growth had slowed to 3.6%.
Here’s the graph:
Meanwhile, CNN reports: Americans’ anger about the economy hits Trump and Republicans’ midterm prospects.
A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds that 77% – including a majority of Republicans – say that Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living in their own community. Roughly two-thirds of Americans say that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the country. And Trump’s approval rating stands at 30% on the economy, a career low.
Without any doubt, the fact that SCOTUS has flung open the gates to allow Republican-controlled states to squeeze as many seats as possible from their maps is going to dampen Democrats’ ability to capitalize on this discontent at the ballot box.
Still, the own-goal of it all is pretty staggering.
Further, as I seek to wring whatever few drops of optimism I can from swirling bad news around us all, two things are at least partially heartening.
First, if Trump were a more effective authoritarian, far rosier numbers would have been reported than these. His purge was clearly not sufficiently complete to get him reports to his liking.
Second, and along the same lines, had Trump been a smarter authoritarian, he would have ridden the solid economy Biden left him, while taking credit for it all, while getting away with his other nonsense. Instead, he has demonstrated the same acumen that led to failed marriages, bankrupt casinos, and numerous sham businesses.
Trump’s cult always has an explanation when Trump is failing. I think that for now they are claiming that the only alternative was to let Iran get nukes. I think this means he needs a big win in Iran. He needs the nuclear material removed, regime changed, the strait open and an agreement that allows inspections anytime, anywhere without notice by the US and/or Israel. The odds of getting this are low. That means he still keeps his core, that 30%-35% that support him no matter what. I honestly dont know what changes those people. However, I can see him losing that 5%-10% that put him over the top. Since he isn’t running again he wont care that much except he needs to have the GOP win the 2026 election. It’s clear he has decided the best path for that is not win more votes but instead make it hard for people to vote or make sure votes dont count.
Steve
@steve222: I think support doesn’t break so much as it erodes. Every day of bad news makes it all a bit harder. Every day of bad news has a few more people who just stop posting things, or just stop reading his stream on Truth Social, etc. That transition can move at glacial speed, but let’s not forget that glaciers move, and that movement is as powerful as it is slow.
The trick – and this is part of what makes it so slow – is that they need to construct a new identity that isn’t organized around Trump. Organizing a new identity isn’t easy (I’ve watched someone do this first hand!), even when there is powerful motivation to do it.
One of the things that helps a person organize a new identity is when they find a group which supports or shares that identity. Social interaction is very powerful in conversions. Which is one reason that I am sparing with the contempt of people with other political views than I hold.
Whether Republicans are able to dampen the effects of a blue wave may depend on turnout. I haven’t had the time (or heart, really) to compare the new redistricting lines to other votes, but at some point carving out Republican districts does dilute the vote, rather than concentrate it. You have to put the Democratic voters somewhere. That means that turnout becomes more important, because an R+20 district that has a bunch of Democratic voters added to it that then becomes an R+10 district. With Democrats continuing to heavily over-perform in special elections, even seats that lean R could flip.
And I think that Republicans are harder and harder-pressed to defend the nonsense that is coming out of the White House. When I saw the headline of this piece, I thought it was going to be about Trump’s “”I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation” quote today. He directly stated he DNGAF, and that should be in every Democratic campaign ad.
Jamelle Bouie posted a video recently in which he discusses changes in voting schemes – he clarifies that he’s talking about House representation, not the Electoral College.
This is his reaction to the SCOTUS decision about the VRA. It’s clear that he’s a “go forward, not back” sort of guy, like I’ve been saying.
Approval voting seems an interesting variation that I don’t think I had heard of before. At first blush, I like it. Are there gotchas?
I mean, in some respects it seems superior to party lists, which has a lot of gatekeeping. But maybe in a PR scheme, the gatekeeping isn’t as much of a problem?
EDIT: Argh. The thing on approval voting was a Veritasium video from a couple of years ago, not Bouie. Though he may mention it, too.