So, as James Joyner noted this morning, we are back in the middle of the Trump Iran War Rhetoric Cycle of rinse (threaten escalation), wash (announce we are waiting to escalate), repeat (do it again in a few days). It is a first cousin to Schrödinger’s Hormuz Strait, which is both open and closed until you get your morning report on NPR and are forced to look at it.

This is where I pause and note that Groundhog Day is perhaps a perfect movie and that a sequel is not warranted (unless you count Palm Springs, but that’s another conversation).

This cycle of threats of massive escalation, followed by a decision to hold off for now, is (like pretty much everything else about this administration) exhausting. Part of me thinks it is a lame strategy to appeal to some elements of the domestic audience. Perhaps the goal is to sound tough, then merciful/thoughtful to his supporters? Certainly, some of his groupies think (or, at least used to) that all of the threatening language is him arting the deal (you know, Ye Olde Madman Theory, or something).

Alternatively, it could be a purposeful effort to just flood the zone with so much confusing and contradictory nonsense that people stop paying attention.

However, I am to the point that Occam’s Razor suggests that maybe, just maybe, the brain behind Trump Steaks, Trump Vodka, and Trump University doesn’t know what the Hell it is doing. Or, at least, it knows how to start a scam, but eventually has to walk away, declare bankruptcy, and stiff the contractors on the way out the door. It’s all just so very dumb (“b” included).

Meanwhile, as Politico notes, Gulf countries want the war to end, but can’t agree on how.

This just in: starting a war is easier than ending one satisfactorily. Trump should have asked his buddy Vladimir about that one.

Part of me wonders if giving any of this ongoing thought, let alone writing about it, makes much sense. It’s not like reliving this timeline over and over is leading me to learn ice sculpting, the piano, or leading to self-enlightenment.

But I do have to admit, it really is stunning to see, he really, truly is exactly who we (well, some of us) thought he was.

He really is just an egotistical huckster who doesn’t know what he is doing. The well-trodden observation that he bankrupted more than one casino was, in fact, an illustrative warning about his business acumen. It is, in fact, true that his main business move has been slapping his name on things. And, yes, the fact that he has a record of not paying his bills was an actual warning.

Like with the list of misogynistic and weirdly sexual statements I noted the other day, none of this is news, but sometimes it is striking to be reminded.

Here’s a list of casino bankruptcies.*

1. Trump Taj Mahal — Atlantic City, 1991. Trump funded most of the casino’s $1 billion construction using junk bonds with high interest rates, and when it sought Chapter 11 protection a year after opening, the casino had about $3 billion in debt — PolitiFact, “Fact-checking claims about Donald Trump’s four bankruptcies”
2. Trump Castle Hotel & Casino — Atlantic City, 1992. Sought Chapter 11 protection amid heavy debt and cash flow problems — Washington Post, “Fact Check: Has Trump declared bankruptcy four or six times?”
3. Trump Plaza Hotel & Casino — Atlantic City, 1992. Filed alongside the Castle amid the same debt pressures — Washington Post fact-check
4. Plaza Hotel — New York City, 1992. Declared bankruptcy in 1992 after amassing debt — Washington Post fact-check
5. Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts — 2004 The American Presidency Project, republishing Associated Press coverage
6. Trump Entertainment Resorts — 2009 Hit by the 2008 recession, the company missed a $53.1 million bond interest payment in December 2008, and Trump resigned as chairman while keeping a 10 percent stake — ABI, “Donald Trump Business Bankruptcies: A Summary”

And here is a list of businesses that failed, mostly of the “put Trump on something” model.*

1. Trump University — for-profit real estate “school,” 2005–2011. Founded in 2005, it offered unaccredited online courses in subjects like asset management, entrepreneurship, and wealth creation for fees of up to $35,000. It was renamed “The Trump Entrepreneur Initiative” in 2010 after regulators objected to the “university” label, the same year several former students sued alleging its classes amounted to little more than infomercials. The venture ultimately led to a $25 million fraud settlement. France 24
2. Trump Shuttle (Trump Airlines) — commuter airline, 1989–1992. Trump paid $365 million to take over Eastern Air Lines’ hourly shuttle service between New York, Washington, and Boston, rebranding 17 Boeing 727s with maple veneer, faux marble, and leather seats. He failed to earn enough from the venture and defaulted on a $1.1 million loan payment, eventually surrendering the company in a merger deal. — South China Morning Post
3. Trump Steaks — premium meat line, 2007. Launched on the June 2007 cover of the Sharper Image catalogue, the “world’s greatest” steaks brand was discontinued not long after — around the same time a Trump Steakhouse in Las Vegas was closed for 51 health code violations, including serving five-month-old duck. — TIME. Trump’s own SPAC merger filing later disclosed the brand discontinued sales just two months after launch. — Yahoo Finance/LA Times syndication
4. Trump Vodka — 2006–2011. Unveiled in 2006 with the slogan “Success Distilled,” Trump predicted the “T&T” cocktail would outdo Grey Goose as the country’s most-ordered drink. The trademark was abandoned two years later, and the product reportedly disappeared from circulation altogether by 2011. — TIME / France 24
5. Trump Mortgage — 2006–2007. A financial services company founded in 2006, it ceased operations in 2007 — right before the subprime mortgage crisis hit. — Yahoo Finance/LA Times
6. GoTrump.com — luxury travel search engine, 2006–2007. Launched in 2006 and powered by Travelocity, the site was shut down about a year later. — TIME
7. Trump Magazine — lifestyle publication. Described by NBC News as one of the “notorious misfires” Mitt Romney cited in a 2016 speech attacking Trump’s business record, alongside Trump University, Trump Airlines, Trump Vodka, and Trump Steaks. — NBC News
8. Trump: The Game — board game. A Monopoly-style game that, per retrospectives, arrived with hype but quickly disappeared from store shelves. — Ranker

All of that makes one wonder if, in fact, the market really does punish failure if you start off with enough money to begin with.

I could also provide a list of examples of him stiffing contractors. Instead, here’s just one link via NBC News from 2016: Hundreds Claim Donald Trump Doesn’t Pay His Bills in Full.

But it also means that it is hardly shocking that the man has bungled this war, not to mention the general damage he has done to the global order via his treatment of allies and his nonsensical tariff policy. Nor is it a shocker that there have been more measles cases in the last 18 months than in the previous 25 years combined, to name but one domestic consequence of electing a guy whose most successful venture was probably his reality TV show.

So, all of that is to say that Trump is perhaps the most consequential president of my lifetime, and yet in all the wrong ways. And it has been, and will continue to be, an ongoing cycle of utterly avoidable political and policy stupidity until at least January of 2029.

I am likely doomed to think and write about it until then.

One thing is for sure: I definitely have “I’ve Got You Babe” stuck in my head.

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*I used Claude to compile these lists.