James is right to note in the headline of his piece that Democrats won where they were, in the main, expected to win. This was especially true in NYC and VA. There had been some speculation that NJ was going to be competitive, and yet a pattern was broken in terms of the number of consecutive governors of the same party winning the office of governor in that state.
These were a limited number of contests in a limited number of locations, almost all of which were in Democratic environments (except GA, see below). A lot of what happened yesterday fits known and expected patterns as a general matter. As I noted in my previous post, yesterday was a good sign for our general democracy, and this will energize Democrats, but I would caution against drawing overbroad conclusions.
Still, I think that margins of victory in the state-level races in particular are important, as are some of the non-topline results. As with every post-presidential election, at least part of what is going on is a signal about the occupant in the White House, and yesterday was bad for Donald J. Trump.
To wit:
Georgia
Via the NYT: In an Upset, Democrats Oust Two Republicans on Georgia’s Utility Board. This is a stunning result. Yes, it is an off-term election to two relatively obscure offices, but these were both state-wide contests, and the Republicans were destroyed. This can rightly be seen as frustration over energy costs and an anti-Trump vote. As I continually noted about 2024, elections tend to be referenda on the incumbent party, and poor economic conditions redound negatively to that party.
These outcomes are a signal of discontent.
Pennsylvania
Via NBC News: Pennsylvania voters retain three state Supreme Court justices, preserving Democrats’ 5-2 majority. I would note: judges tend to win retention elections, so the results themselves are not especially surprising. But as with all things political these days, these were not typical retention elections.
In one TV ad, the trio of judges appeared together to tell voters “we protected access to abortion. And your right to vote. Even when the powerful came after it.”
Prominent Democrats backed the incumbent justices, who appeared on the ballot without any party designation. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who faces re-election next year and is viewed as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential contender, appeared in an ad on the justices’ behalf. And former President Barack Obama posted on social media urging Pennsylvanians to vote “yes” on retention.
President Donald Trump also weighed in at the last minute, urging Pennsylvanians to “Vote ‘NO, NO, NO’ on Liberal Justices Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht” in a Truth Social post on Sunday night.
Virginia
The executive levels are important, the AG race being key, given that having a Democrat in that role is a block against any attempted electoral manipulation by the Trump administration in 2026.
But I would highlight the results for the state legislature. Not only does this position Virginia to be a player in the redistricting wars, but it is a clear repudiation of the Republican Party (who knew an attack on the federal workforce might have political consequences?).
Via The Virginia Mercury: Blue wave rebuilds the House: Democrats soar to at least 64 seats in Virginia.
This was a stunning pickup of seats.
Other Links
Via the AP: Tuesday’s races were a quiet rebuke of Trump for many voters, AP Voter Poll finds. BTW: weird headline for the graph, even if it is accurate, but the numbers are pretty stark.
Via CBS News: Here’s what CBS News exit polls told us about the 2025 elections.
Via CNN: CNN exit polls: Voters’ dissatisfaction with Trump helped fuel Democratic wins in key races. Note the economy column on the right.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
