Thursday’s Forum

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FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. Bill Jempty says:

    No new pope yet. I expect there will be one by either tonight or tomorrow.

  2. Bill Jempty says:
  3. Bill Jempty says:

    Not surprisingly, the Pakistan-India conflict is playing havoc with air travel. From Reuters

    TAIPEI/NEW DELHI, May 7 (Reuters) – Airlines including United Airlines and Korean Air re-routed or cancelled flights and about a dozen Indian airports were shut on Wednesday after India struck nine sites in Pakistan, raising fears of an escalation.

    India attacked Pakistani Kashmir and Pakistan said it had shot down five Indian fighter jets in the flare-up, which followed an attack by Islamist militants that killed 26 people in Indian Kashmir last month. India said it hit “terrorist infrastructure” related to the tourist killings. Pakistan rejects that it has such camps on its territory.

    Images from flight tracking websites showed a long line of airlines passing over Oman, UAE and Kuwait after the attack, raising the possibility of airspace congestion.

    Authorities in Pakistan said 57 international flights were in the country’s airspace when India struck. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office said India’s action “caused grave danger to commercial airlines” belonging to Gulf countries and “endangered lives”.

    India’s civil aviation ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Pakistan’s remarks.

    In the last few days, India and Pakistan had shut their airspaces to each other’s airlines. Global airlines like Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) have also been avoiding Pakistan’s airspace.

    “If the conflict continues, there is a chance that Pakistan could impose a full airspace closure, as they did from Feb. to Aug. 2019 under similar circumstances,” aviation advisory body OPSGROUP said in a blog post published Wednesday.

    Air India flights have been avoiding Pakistan air space and in doing so can’t fly non stop from the US to New Delhi so they have to refuel in Europe and this is causing flight delays.

    Dear Wife and I flew business class Air India JFK to New Delhi last January. Our time in India was nice, our air travel much less so.

    2
  4. Beth says:

    Site work/update question: It seems to me on Chrome and IOS Safari that a bunch of comments from last night’s open have gotten cut off. Not sure if I need to refresh cache stuff or if it’s a symptom you guys should know about.

    In any event, you guys rule and thank you for all your hard work. As a tech incompetent I salute you!

    5
  5. ptfe says:

    @Beth: The way to get a refresh is to post a comment, then delete it.

    1
  6. Scott says:

    This will go over well

    Internal VA Emails Reveal How Trump Cuts Jeopardize Veterans’ Care, Including To “Life-Saving Cancer Trials”

    Earlier this year, doctors at Veterans Affairs hospitals in Pennsylvania sounded an alarm. Sweeping cuts imposed by the Trump administration, they told higher-ups in an email, were causing “severe and immediate impacts,” including to “life-saving cancer trials.”

    The email said more than 1,000 veterans would lose access to treatment for diseases ranging from metastatic head and neck cancers, to kidney disease, to traumatic brain injuries.

    “Enrollment in clinical trials is stopping,” the email warned, “meaning veterans lose access to therapies.”

    3
  7. Scott says:
  8. charontwo says:

    Krugman

    The Trump administration is planning to announce its first trade deal today, with Britain. Except it won’t be a deal; more of a “deal.” Reportedly it will mainly be a “framework” for an actual deal that may or may not happen sometime in the future. This is the tariff equivalent of “concepts of a plan” for health care.

    In other words, this will be smoke and mirrors, an attempt to persuade the gullible that Trump’s tariffs are actually working. Markets — driven by small investors who seem desperate to believe that the people in charge have some idea what they’re doing — may briefly bounce on the announcement.

    Trump, however, has already declared that the tariff that really matters right now, the prohibitive 145 percent rate on imports from China, won’t be coming down. That tariff has already caused a 30-40 percent drop in the volume of US-China trade, which, given the time it takes to ship stuff, guarantees a sharp increase in consumer prices and possibly empty shelves a few weeks from now.

    But back to that UK “deal.” Nobody knows what will eventually come out of it, but we can be sure of one thing: It won’t lead to any significant opening of the British market to U.S. goods. Why? Because that market was already wide open before Trump stomped in.

    The most important thing to understand about Trump’s trade war is that it’s an attempt to solve a problem that only exists in his imagination. He keeps insisting that other countries are engaged in unfair trade, but the reality is that most of our important trading partners impose very low tariffs on U.S. products:

    7
  9. Scott says:

    @Bill Jempty: Here is the latest in a prediction market.

    https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-pope?tid=1746706290940

    Three of the top 4 are Italian. Ages of top 4 are 60, 67, 69, and 70. No idea on their positions.

    Not being RC, I have no dog in this fight.

    1
  10. Jen says:

    @Scott: I don’t think it will get much attention, but I understand the impetus. Also, he’s a private citizen now, and can do what he wishes…personally, I wouldn’t sink money into a PR rehab effort at 80, but whatever.

    We’re seeing a narrative take hold that he was seriously incapacitated during his term, rather than just the standard aging crap. If I were advising him, I’d suggest being visible in active ways that draw a contrast to Trump. Help with a Habitat for Humanity home, show up at a food pantry, etc. Basically, if Biden is physically able, the best thing he could do is pull a Carter 2.0.

    14
  11. just nutha says:

    @ptfe: Thanks for the tip.

    1
  12. Matt Bernius says:

    Quick request–if you are experiencing issues with comment counts, or anything else, can you PLEASE let us know in this post: https://outsidethebeltway.com/update-about-site-updates/

    Also, please use that post to try “test” comments. Having everything in one place makes it easier for me to troubleshoot.

    2
  13. just nutha says:

    @Scott: When you’ve spent virtually your entire adult life working in a field where having a good public image is the lynchpin of your career and belong to a generation of Americans who have shown no awareness of when it’s time to get off the stage and little propensity to, you’re not likely to be able to resist the course he and Jill have decided on.

    But yeah, it’s sad all the same.

    ETA: Good suggestions, Jen. He shoulda hired you.

    5
  14. CSK says:

    So Trump’s very, very big and very, very positive news seems to be about a post-tariff deal with the U.K.

    2
  15. Charley in Cleveland says:

    @Jen: Joe might not feel the need to rehab the rep if Trump, Karoline “Baghdad Bob” Leavitt, and other rightwing tools would stop blaming Biden for the economic mess Trump has been creating. It would also help if the media would stop ignoring the CRAZY things Trump is saying every day, and point out that there’s a difference between misstatements and outright bullshit.

    6
  16. Charley in Cleveland says:

    And this, from CBS News, is particularly galling:
    The Trump administration has reached a settlement with the family of Ashli Babbitt, the Trump supporter who was shot and killed while in the mob breaching the House Speaker’s Lobby on Jan. 6, 2021…. Multiple sources told CBS News the settlement has been reached in principle but is not yet signed. In a court proceeding Friday, a plaintiff’s attorney confirmed the settlement in principle was reached. It would avert a trial and further proceedings in a $30 million civil suit filed by the conservative activist group Judicial Watch on behalf of Babbitt’s estate, including her late husband.

    Of course this is another step in the whitewashing of Jan 6th. The Biden DOJ was fighting this, but the Bondi DOJ has rolled over. Settling a “$30 million civil suit” does NOT mean Babbit’s estate will get $30M*, but just the fact that the government is willing to spend OUR tax dollars to compensate relatives of a Jan 6th rioter is nauseating.

    *$30 million was the “prayer” in the civil suit. In many states, a plaintiff can pull any number out of their keister and make that their prayer. It’s media catnip, and Ohio put an end to it years ago via a civil procedure rule that capped prayer amounts at basically $25,000. If you have a contract complaint you can plead the specific amount at issue, otherwise your big money prayer can only be stated as “in excess of $25-thousand.” Predictably, the media started reporting civil defendants were being sued for $25,000.

    6
  17. Scott says:

    @Jen: It will get huge airplay from right wing media. And that’s the problem with it. It is distracting from Trump’s craziness.

    2
  18. Kathy says:

    @CSK:

    As @charontwo quoted Krugman, the felon’s claim is a wild exaggeration.

    Yet another day that ends in Y.

    2
  19. Kathy says:

    I should have been making ice cream through March and April, but the workload left me too tired to even try. Hopefully I can make some this weekend, but it will be simple. I want mint mocha, but I’ll probably go with yogurt coffee.

    For the week’s cooking I want to try a hack I’ve been hearing about for a while: mixing a water and baking soda solution with ground beef to improve browning. I’m just not quite sure what to do with it. I though spaghetti Bolognese, but drowning the beef and pasta in red sauce kind of defeats the purpose, right?

    Maybe I’ll try picadillo. That’s ground beef with chopped onions and chopped strips of poblano pepper, and just a bit of beef broth reduction. This would feature the beef’s flavor. And rice on the side.

    1
  20. Barry says:

    @Scott: “I’m not sure a Joe Biden rehabilitation tour is a good idea.”

    Why not? The GOP will be doing a 24/7 slander operation.

    4
  21. becca says:

    This is righteous…
    https://gizmodo.com/elon-musks-grok-ai-has-a-problem-its-too-accurate-for-conservatives-2000597568

    And Bill Gates told the FT that Musk was responsible for “killing the poorest children” in the world with the elimination of USAID.
    I’m glad he’s speaking out. Good on him.

    7
  22. Scott says:

    @Scott: More black smoke just announced. Prediction market seems to consolidating to a top 2: Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle.

  23. just nutha says:

    @CSK: That’s how we know it’s all hype and BS. The lower the substance, the harder the sell.

    1
  24. Rob1 says:

    Quite the juxtaposition. Musk is spreading his seed far and wide, and advocating global population expansion, while simultaneously throwing his $billion$dollar$ weight around to ensure millions of children do not get what they need to live and thrive. This “braniac-logician” label we readily bestow upon those whose wealth buys them a massive platform, is suspect.

    Gates condemned the sudden funding cuts to USAID by Musk’s so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge), saying the cuts have led to life-saving food and medicines expiring in warehouses, and could result in the resurgence of diseases such as measles, HIV and polio.

    “The picture of the world’s richest man killing the world’s poorest children is not a pretty one,” Gates said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/08/bill-gates-foundation-wealth-musk-doge

    6
  25. Fortune says:

    @Jen: Let’s give Biden a hammer and nails and put him on a roof and invite the press to watch what happens. That will put an end to the narrative about Biden being infirmed!

  26. Scott says:

    For your amusement.

    MAGA World Planned a Blowout, 100-Days-of-Trump Party. Disaster Ensued.

    As a reporter for the Daily Caller News Foundation, he had just scored what counts as a scoop in that world: He caught an irritated Rep. Ilhan Omar on video telling him to “fuck off.”

    Then, this Wednesday, Morell walked into work and was swiftly fired.

    The abrupt change in fortunes came thanks to an “official” celebration of the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second term, one that was supposed to feature Republican members of Congress and even the president himself. The bash was a massive bust.

    Instead of hosting GOP royalty, the event generated two police reports from ticket buyers. One man who was asked to help set up the event compared it to the disastrous Fyre Festival, and at least one embarrassing video of a man breakdancing with a puppet ricocheted across the Internet.

    2
  27. Kathy says:

    The mystery of the disappearing OTB posts brings to mind something similar: the mystery of the nonfunctioning apps.

    It began around 2017 when I tried to run Spotify on my phone. I saw no need for a music app, but by then several people recommended it as a podcast app. It did run, but wouldn’t let me set up an account. I tried with a different email address, then a different phone, even different WiFi. Nothing worked. so I just stopped trying. Plenty of other podcast apps out there.

    Around early 2021, the Starbucks app stopped working. The whole point of that app at first was the rewards program. Even after it was massively devalued, it was still worth it. Then the point was also in-app orders. I could place my order while grocery shopping, then walk to the Starbucks right outside the supermarket and just pick up my coffee. No lines, no waiting. And in the midst of the trump pandemic, reduced exposure to maskholes.

    One day, though, I tried adding money to the account balance, and it wouldn’t go through. all I got was a message like “apparently something went wrong. please try again later.” I did, with the same results. eventually I tried adding the money at the store, and that didn’t go through.

    So I did what we’ve all been conditioned to do: uninstall and reinstall the app.

    See Spotify above. the exact same thing happened.

    I’ve kept trying to revive it on and off through about four phones by now, and nothing ever works. every time I try to log in, it’s “apparently something went wrong. please try again later.” I’ve tried setting a new account, and the same thing happens on log in.

    On the plus side, this has led to a very drastic reduction on my visits to Starbucks.

    The supermarket I frequent most sells milk espresso drinks. they don’t have a rewards program, but it’s a bit cheaper so that balances out. They don’t have an app for pre orders, but it’s unusual to have as many as two people ahead of me. the coffee isn’t that good, but neither is Starbucks’.

  28. Mister Bluster says:

    @Mister Lucky:..If I had a hammer

    Plump Trump would fall through the roof…

    3
  29. Kathy says:

    @Rob1:

    Lots of plantation owners back in the day raped their female slaves to impregnate them and get more slaves, their own children, out of it. The nazi in chief is just following this tradition.

    4
  30. Scott says:

    @Scott: BBC reporting white smoke.

    Polymarket is indicating Pietro Parolin.

    1
  31. inhumans99 says:

    @Fortune:

    That you are so concerned about how Biden will be perceived in a photo opportunity speaks volumes about you Fortune, shouldn’t you be crowing about Trump’s UK “trade agreement”?

    That you are concerned about how Biden will be perceived by the public several months into Trump’s presidency, meaning you are admitting to being worried about someone who lost the race to President Trump, that is shall we say…interesting.

    I will leave it to your therapist to unpack that for you.

  32. Fortune says:

    @inhumans99: What volumes? Any volumes about Jen, who apparently thinks Biden’s reputation is inaccurate and can be rehabilitated?

  33. Kylopod says:

    Born in 1977, this will be the sixth Pope in my lifetime–though I lived under the first three before turning 2.

    1
  34. Kathy says:

    @Kylopod:

    I’ve vague recollections of B&W TV pictures of a conclave in the late 70s to pick one of the John Pauls, but I forget which one.

    I remember the TV more. We were staying at a rented apartment in Acapulco at the time. the TV was tiny, black and white, and had a capacitance switch for turning it on and off (you had to only touch it).

  35. Kylopod says:

    @Kathy: I do have a vague memory of seeing Kermit the Frog in green for the first time.

  36. becca says:

    Pope Leo 14, an American from Chicago.
    Shocker!

  37. Gustopher says:

    @Scott: I don’t know that much about Christianity or Catholicism, but I would like to think that people gambling on the identity of the next Pope (i.e., polymarket shit) would burn in hell for eternity, just for hubris.

    1
  38. Lucysfootball says:

    Interesting to see that all US markets are up significantly because of the huge trade deal. I don’t get it, I keep thinking that tariff effects haven’t even hit yet. Deal doesn’t seem in any way to be a game changer, and I can’t imagine China is quaking in their boots.

  39. Bill Jempty says:

    @becca:

    Pope Leo 14, an American from Chicago. Shocker!

    Oi Vei

    1
  40. Scott says:

    @Bill Jempty: @Gustopher: @becca: @Scott: Robert Francis Prevost. So much for prediction markets. Down around 11th in the markets.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV

    A year younger than me. Still think 70 is too old.

    1
  41. CSK says:

    @becca:

    Is Trump demanding a recount?

    2
  42. DK says:

    @Jen: There’s people who don’t want Biden around because they don’t want to be reminded how they lied about him, falsely claiming he was drooling and incapacitated.

    Biden is still more competent, able, and qualified than the sloppy, obese, babbling buffoon currently in office, who is busy wrecking the world best post-pandemic recovery he was able to inherited thanks to Biden’s wisdom and decency.

    Glad to see our president out and about, living his best life and telling the truth while President Trumpflation founders. R.I.P. to Alex Thompson and Jake Trapper.

    9
  43. Gustopher says:

    @Scott: I was holding out hope for Pierbattista Pizzaballa, based on name alone.

    Robert Francis Prevost… I know he picked some goofy Pope Name, but do we really have Pope Bob?

    1
  44. Mister Bluster says:

    My brother claims that the new Pope Leo is a Cubs fan.
    To which I replied “Does this mean the Cubs can’t steal any more bases?”

    I’m going with Pope Leo took his name from Leo Durocher. Durocher was the Cubs manager in the cursed 1969 season. The cubs were in first place from opening day till September. Never once did they drop out of first place. The City was going wild! “This is the year!”
    In September they couldn’t buy a win. The goddamn Mets beat out the Cubs and went to the World Series after winning the first ever National League playoff series.
    The Chicago Sports Press was all over Durocher.
    “Leo, what happened? You were in first place all year! What happened?”
    Leo said: “Those last few games we couldn’t have beat a team of women.”

    3
  45. Roger says:

    @Fortune: Jen, a PR professional, responds to a link about Biden’s PR efforts with her thoughts on the best way to handle it, qualified by the caveat “if Biden is physically able.” You respond with snark about putting Biden on a roof with a hammer. I’ve volunteered at Habitat; given the fact that nobody at the sites where I volunteered was an idiot, nobody considered putting me on a roof–there are a lot of things short of roofing that a Habitat volunteer can do that demonstrate they’re still active and care about people.

    Yes, I’d say that the the exchange speaks volumes about both of you. I’m just not sure it says what you seem to think it says.

    10
  46. Fortune says:

    @Roger: I wasn’t commenting on Habitat for Humanity any more than Jen was. I’m sure they use their volunteers as effectively as possible. I was laughing at Jen’s implication Biden wasn’t infirmed.

  47. Scott says:

    Great! Now my Houston area home insurance is going to go up even higher than it has.

    FEMA chief is fired

    Cameron Hamilton, FEMA’s acting administrator, has told people that he was terminated, leaving the nation’s disaster agency without a top official three weeks before the start of the Atlantic hurricane season and as Congress scrutinizes FEMA’s proposed budget for fiscal 2026.

    Hamilton was summoned to Department of Homeland Security headquarters in Washington on Thursday morning and told of his termination by Deputy Homeland Security Secretary Troy Edgar and Corey Lewandowski, a longtime adviser to President Donald Trump, according to a person with direct knowledge.

    Hamilton was driven back to FEMA headquarters a few miles away, where he cleared out his desk and left.

    The firing occurred one day after Hamilton told a House Appropriations subcommittee that the nation needs FEMA, which Trump has suggested abolishing or shrinking.

    “I do not believe it is in the best interests of the American people to eliminate the Federal Emergency Management Agency,” Hamilton said at the hearing.

    Fired for telling the truth. At least he had it better than a lot of other Federal employees who were locked out of their offices, not allowed to retrieve their stuff or even their cars.

    6
  48. just nutha says:

    @Scott: A breakdancing puppet? I might go see that.

    Is it free?

  49. Roger says:

    @Fortune: Yeah, I got it. I also got your reliance on the (unproven) assumption that all right-thinking people know that Biden couldn’t walk around a job site to ridicule Jen while ignoring the fact that she bothered to build the possibility that Biden isn’t physically capable into her post.

    5
  50. just nutha says:

    Fortune is starting to remind me of Jenos. He was able to transform annoying and mindlessly senselessly offensive to levels I’d not seen before.

    It was almost inspiring, in some perverse sense.

    5
  51. Fortune says:

    @Roger: Everyone acknowledges it. Books have been written about it.

  52. Gustopher says:

    @Fortune: Books have been written about aliens designing and building the pyramids.

    It turns out, people with an ideological axe to grind* will write books making up all sorts of shit.

    *: with regards to the aliens and pyramids, the ideological axe is that brown people are savages and obviously couldn’t have made anything so grand, so it had to be aliens.

    9
  53. Kathy says:

    @Gustopher:

    Yeah, I would love a book explaining how aliens built the Pantheon, the Colosseum, the Parthenon, etc.

    But there’s a bit more than that. The more famous pyramids, Egyptian, Maya, and Aztec, were built by bronze age civilizations*. also many were built millennia before the grand monumental builds in Europe.

    Pyramids in the western hemisphere were built long past the bronze age in Eurasia, but the local civilizations lacked the skills and tools to work iron.

    2
  54. JohnSF says:

    @Gustopher:
    The odd thing being, that until relatively recently (ie before c 1930’s) Egyptians were generally regrded as “white, sub-type Levantine”.
    Which was where the usage “Caucasian” came from: that category originally embraced all white, and many “brown-ish”, groups from all Europe, North Africa, and Middle East/western Asia.

    Which is why the Nazis switched to “Aryan”, as excluding the non-Europeans.
    Above all, of course in order to exclude Jews from the herrernvolks.

    2
  55. JohnSF says:

    @Kathy:

    “I would love a book explaining how aliens built …”

    Ah, that’s where Atlantis comes in, obviously. 😉

    4
  56. CSK says:

    Trump is considering Jeanine Pirro as interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia.

    Isn’t she known as Judge Winebox?

    1
  57. Kylopod says:

    @JohnSF:

    Which is why the Nazis switched to “Aryan”, as excluding the non-Europeans.

    Aryan excluded Slavs, and really everyone outside Northern Europe. (Putting aside the “honorary Aryan” business.) That’s why it’s ironic Putin’s Russia has become a hub of neo-Nazis. Nowadays, neo-Nazism basically just means you hate all nonwhites and Jews.

    2
  58. Beth says:

    @CSK:

    Oh that would be almost as awesome as Chicago Pope.

    OMG. I want Trump to do it just so he can ram it down the GOP’s throats.

  59. JohnSF says:

    @Kylopod:
    I recall many years ago reading a old book on anthroplogy poublished in the late 1930’s, where the author pointed out that if “Aryan” (=”Indo-European”) meant anything at all, it was a group of ethncicities related by language that obviously included Slavs, Balts, Celts, Latins/Romance, Greeks, Iranians etc.
    The authors comment was someting like:
    “If one means Germanic, one might just as well say Germanic.”
    Nazis always were a bit dim.

    2
  60. Kathy says:

    Couch connoisseur and wannabe eyeliner model JD Vance declared the leak is on the other side of the lifeboat.

    TL;DR: “we hope the trouble between India and Pakistan won’t escalate toa nuclear war, but we won’t lift a finger to stop it.”

  61. Richard Gardner says: