Trade War Threats
It's scheduled to start tomorrow.
So reports that NYT: Trump Will Hit Mexico, Canada and China With Tariffs.
President Trump plans to move forward with imposing stiff tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China on Saturday, in an attempt to further pressure America’s largest trading partners to accept more deportees and stop the flow of migrants and drugs into the country.
In a news briefing on Friday, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said the president would put in place a 25 percent tariff on goods from Mexico, a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and a 10 percent tariff on goods from China.
Ms. Leavitt said the president had chosen to impose tariffs because the countries “have allowed an unprecedented invasion of illegal fentanyl that is killing American citizens, and also illegal immigrants into our country.”
So, just to be clear, Trumps is going to increase taxes on goods coming into the US that will be paid by those in the US. While the countries in question could potentially suffer from decreased business with the US, Americans will be paying the taxes.
But hey, who needs all that foreign stuff, right?
Wait. What?
Canada, Mexico and China are America’s three largest trading partners, supplying the United States with cars, medicine, shoes, timber, electronics, steel and many other products. Together, they account for more than a third of the goods and services imported to or bought from the United States, supporting tens of millions of American jobs.
So, yeah, not great. Plus, there is the whole retaliation thing.
All three governments have promised to answer Mr. Trump’s levies with tariffs of their own on U.S. exports, including Florida orange juice, Tennessee whiskey and Kentucky peanut butter. All three of those states have Republican senators representing them in Congress and voted for Mr. Trump in 2024.
How this is supposed to have any effect on fentanyl is beyond me, save maybe some pressure on China over precursor chemicals.
And in terms of migrant flow, please note the following.
The number of unauthorized crossings at the southern border in December 2023 reached nearly 250,000, overwhelming the Border Patrol and causing the government to shut down a port of entry. At the northern border, the flow of migrants crossing illegally skyrocketed during the 2024 fiscal year. During that time, more than 23,000 arrests were made of migrants crossing illegally — two years before that figure was around 2,000.
The situation at the border has changed since then.
In December, agents made roughly 47,000 arrests at the southern border and 510 at the northern border.
All of this is absurd and disruptive for no good reason.
Gee, I wonder when the news got out?
More via Yahoo! Finance: Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq stumble as Trump recommits to sweeping tariffs on Saturday.
If these tariffs actually happen as reported, watch the market on Monday.
Republicans: crashing the economy to own the libs.
Musk and Trump are determined to do the full Liz Truss, but unlike in the UK, American conservatives are too deep in the fascist rabbit hole to say no. Dear oh dear.
Thank God the stock market is tumbling because all of the elected reps rich on insider trading will actually feel this and care.
Too bad the pain and suffering of their fellow Americans can’t move the needle the same way.
I still think this all makes more sense if we think of “tariffs” as a magic word the dictator uses to solve all his problems.
On a related side note, it is curious that Trump decided to heap tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, and went lighter on China, at 10%. China of course has long been a target of Trump’s ire.
In light of this, our nation’s 2nd largest retailer, Amazon, owned by recent Trump convert Bezos, draws 70% of its offerings from China. Walmart, the largest US retailer, imported 60% of it’s products from China (down from 80%.). Trump had threatened China with 100% tariffs. A reduction from 100% to 10% is quite an adjustment.
Someone talked him down off that cliff. Canada and Mexico could use some friends in high places.
Tariffs can potentially make sense to protect one’s domestic industry.
But tariffs across the board, including on stuff that isn’t even produced in the US? Why burden your consumers with an additional tax if you don’t have any producers or workers that will benefit from this?
That’s just insanity. It doesn’t even make sense on its own terms.
@Rob1:
What share of US exports go to China as opposed to Canada and Mexico?
BTW, China is one of the fastest growing aviation markets, and Boeing, for some reason, is still America’s largest single exporter.
China’s COMAC has placed a narrowbody, the C919, into service. But 1) a lot of parts come from abroad, including the engines, and 2) production capacity is limited. So, they’ll keep buying A320 and B737 families for a while yet.
COMAC is also developing a wide body aircraft, the C929, but it comes with the same caveats above. It was originally a joint venture with Russia, but that ended a few years ago (I wonder why).
Assuming Xi doesn’t go crazy over Taiwan, and further developments in time, by the time COMAC makes a second generation mainline jet, they may grab a sizeable portion of the market from Airbus and Boeing. If I were them, I’d be working on a next gen replacement for the A320 family.
@drj: “That’s just insanity. It doesn’t even make sense on its own terms.”
It make sense in the manner of ‘I have massive discretion on this. how much are you willing to pay for an exemption?’
The big question is, if the stock markets tank, will the bond markets, as per normal, bounce?
If they don’t, then the faeces/fan intersection is on track.
Also, if Trump thinks the European Union is going to cower in the face of trade war threats, he’s in for a rude awakening.
Interesting question re. UK politics: will Labour opt for UK/EU alignment?
If so, will the Conservatives and/or Reform try to argue for Trump?
If they do, they may be miscalculating public attitudes.
A lot of MAGA seem to think that European nationalist conservatives are “obviously” going to favour Trumpian actions over their national interest, for some peculiar reason.
Dear Mr Bannon: please look up “nationalism” in a handy encyclopedia.
It may not mean what you think it means.
“So, just to be clear, Trump[] is going to increase taxes on goods coming into the US that will be paid by those in the US. While the countries in question could potentially suffer from decreased business with the US, Americans will be paying the taxes.”
I would point out that as of last year, at least, Grover Norquist, a longstanding proponent of not raising taxes, ironically had no problem with Trump using tariffs as a “negotiating tool.”
I can assure you that Trump and The Enablers have no success criteria defined for fentanyl trafficking reductions or fentanyl users’ survival rates, so there’s no target to be reached that will rescind the tariffs. Most likely, Trump will make up a win and claim maximal benevolence to our neighbors when it suits him.
And, of course, he won’t do a damn thing about fentanyl demand within our borders because Victimhood is a key element of fascism.
@Scott F.: You are correct, of course.
I keep falling into the mental trap that there is at least some perverse and poorly reasoned connection between action and results in the minds of those making these “policies.”
It is all show/believing their own bullshit. Like Kathy notes, it is more incantation than it is public policy.
@Scott F.: You are correct, of course.
I keep falling into the mental trap that there is at least some perverse and poorly reasoned connection between action and results in the minds of those making these “policies.”
It is all show/believing their own bullshit. Like Kathy notes, it is more incantation than it is public policy.
Reminds of the old National Lampoon cover —- Buy this administration policy or Trump will shoot the dog; we being the dog.
It’s almost as if Putin’s exacting economic payback by proxy. Almost.
@Rob1:
It might be illuminating to see the current investment strategies of Trump’s family and friends. Picking winners and losers by fiat could be a profitable side gig.
Also:
@Steven L. Taylor:
Of course. Connection between action and results is what normal people expect.
Sadly, the abnormals found a large enough audience for their BS Show that the performers now have power. And when success is easily made up – fentanyl statistics aren’t displayed at the grocery store or posted at major intersections like gas prices – they will propagandize the results. But, as @Rob1 notes, people are going to notice the more expensive cars and tequila. It’s normal people’s job to draw big red circles around those results and declare in a loud voice “Trump and his enablers did that!”
It’s almost as if this is a bad idea and poorly thought through by a moron. And now his minions have to explain and defend this extraordinarily bad idea.
Who could’ve predicted that?
@Rob1: It’snot really a mystery.Trump thinks he can get away with it with allies – China not so much. But he has miscalculated.