So, the President of the United States posted this just before 3 this morning:
This is quite a bold statement, and certainly one that seems at odds with an America First National Security Strategy that places both the Middle East and maintenance of the liberal world order in a tertiary role. This goes beyond a warning of retaliation, as “come to their rescue” would seem to imply an extraction mission.
NYT (“Trump Says U.S. Is ‘Locked and Loaded’ if Iran Kills Protesters“) points to the risks involved:
President Trump said on Friday that the United States would come to the aid of protesters in Iran if the government there used lethal force against them, in a sharp escalation of remarks after days of widespread demonstrations against the Iranian government.
The comments came a day after reports from Iranian state media and activists said that at least one person had been killed in clashes between protesters and security forces, as officials tried to contain protests incited by economic distress.
[…]
If Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue,” Mr. Trump said in a post on Truth Social early Friday morning. “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.”
It was not possible to tell whether there had been any planning for such a move or whether the administration would actually follow through on Mr. Trump’s threat.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the head of Iran’s Parliament, said in a post on X that “all American bases and forces across the entire region will be legitimate targets” if the U.S. interferes with Iran.
Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said in a post on social media on Friday that Mr. Trump “should know that U.S. interference in this internal matter would mean destabilizing the entire region and destroying America’s interests.”
He added: “The American people should know — Trump started this adventurism.”
[…]
Iranian authorities have met past protest movements with force, detaining demonstrators and, at times, killing them. This time, officials say they are seeking talks with protest organizers and other representatives, with senior leaders even striking a more conciliatory tone.
[…]
“I think Trump’s tweet has encouraged protesters, boosted their morale and raised public expectations,” said Mojtaba, 40, a medical doctor in the northeastern province of Khorasan, who asked that only his first name be used for fear of retaliation.
Mr. Trump’s remarks come nearly six months after the United States carried out airstrikes on several of Iran’s nuclear facilities. In a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel this week, Mr. Trump said the United States would back Israeli strikes on Iran if Iran continued with its ballistic missile and nuclear weapon program. The president said he had received reports that Iran may be attempting to revive its nuclear program but offered no further details.
Granting that President Trump’s social media posts don’t always translate to concrete policy actions, it would be hard to back away from this without losing face. Given how widespread the protests are, it’s not obvious to me what “com[ing] to their rescue” would actually look like.
