Tuesday’s Forum

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FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. Bill Jempty says:

    You have to love Florida. From WPEC

    HOBE SOUND, Fla. (CBS12) — The Martin County Sheriff’s Office (MCSO) has identified the man accused of stealing a luxury yacht and leading law enforcement on a chase down the Intracoastal Waterway near Hobe Sound.

    MCSO identified the suspect as Nikolai Vilkov, a Russian national, who deputies say does not speak any English. Deputies say at this time, the Department of Homeland Security is headed to MCSO with a Russian interpreter to assist in the investigation.

    Martin County Sheriff John Budensiek said there are still many unanswered questions.

    “We’re trying to figure out where he came from, what was he doing and what he was trying to do with the vessel,” Budensiek said. “But there’s a lot of questions we have.”

    On Monday afternoon, deputies say, Vilkov stole a yacht from the Blowing Rocks Marina and attempted to escape law enforcement through the Intracoastal Waterway. MCSO says the luxury yacht was reported stolen by the dockmaster, which led to a swift and coordinated response.

    Martin County ground units, marine units, SWAT team members and MCSO Air 1 assisted with capturing the suspect, who showed no signs of giving up.

    What was Vilkov going to do with the yacht? Pawn it, take it to a swap shop?, sail it back to Russia? Was he under the influence of alcohol when doing this?

    3
  2. Daryl says:

    @Bill Jempty:
    I actually worked at WPEC, about 45 years ago, as a news photographer/editor. Funny how little has changed in the interim.

    1
  3. Scott says:

    Another series recommendation: Dark Winds on Netflix. Murder-mystery show that takes place on a Navajo reservation in the 1970s. Main character is a Navajo Tribal Police sheriff who conducts the investigation into a couple of murders. Of course there is conspiracies to unravel. And a great sound track full of 60/70s music.

    5
  4. charontwo says:

    Trump did really great in 2024 with inattentive voters who do not pay much attention to political news. They now no longer like him much, big swing in attitude:

    Link

    Trump’s job approval rating is down 33 points among people who read or watch little to no news

    In the 2024 election, Donald Trump gained a surprising edge from an unlikely group: Americans who typically don’t vote. According to a New York Times analysis, these low-turnout voters backed Trump by a double-digit margin, flipping the script from prior years when non-voters leaned Democratic. This wasn’t just a quirk of the horse-race polls; Campaign operatives, analysts, and post-election surveys all pointed to the same conclusion: The less you followed politics, the more likely you were to vote for Trump.

    But now that he’s president again, something’s shifted.

    New polling shows that the very voters who powered Trump’s return to office are now abandoning him. And if that trend holds, it could upend assumptions about how much campaign messaging and elite discourse really matter. Because it turns out the people who don’t read the Times, don’t watch the Sunday shows, and don’t care about the policy details… still care when the economy sours and their lives get harder.

    snip (some charts at the link)

    So, a big reason why Trump won in 2024 is that the Americans who are least likely to be informed about the news and usually don’t sore up voted for him. These are the people that are hardest to reach with political messaging; They do not read the New York Times, they do not digest a lot of political advertising on cable and network television, and they get the lion’s share of their opinions about politics through dialogue with their friends, family, coworkers, neighbors, and on social media.

    Staffers for Harris’s 2024 campaign call these people “opt-out” voters. They are the significant fringe, the hard-to-reach middle, the swinging masses, the “reactionary center.” Opt-out voters have loose ties to political parties and are more reactive to political and economic conditions, in theory, than partisans.

    One theory for why low-engagement voters voted for Trump is because they remembered the economy being good (or not being bad enough to hear about it) in 2018-2019, and they heard about inflation under Biden, so pulled the lever for Trump.

    snip

    According to polls, opt-out voters are moving more against Trump than informed, engaged ones, and significantly disapprove of the job he’s doing as president. According to two Pew Research Center surveys, for example, in February, 44% of 2024 non-voters approved of the job Trump was doing. By April, just 31% of them approved — a 13 percentage point decline. That was larger than the 7-point decline Trump picked up among all adults, and the same size as the drop in Trump support among people who say they only somewhat strongly supported him in 2024:

    charts

    People who do not pay attention to the news have also moved against Trump in large numbers. I asked YouGov, an online pollster, to share data from their polls with The Economist that breaks down the president’s approval rating by how much news people report consuming.

    Comparing these crosstabs for YouGov’s first poll of Trump’s presidency, conducted Jan. 26–28, 2025, to their most recent survey, fielded April 25–28, 2025, we see a massive 33 percentage point decline in Trump’s net approval rating over the last 3 months with people who consume the least news. When Trump was inaugurated, net approval among people who say they read or watch news “hardly at all” was +12, and it’s now -21. That compares to just a 14-point drop in Trump approval, from +3 to -11, among people who say they pay attention to the news “most of the time.”

    1
  5. Liberal Capitalist says:

    We completely cut the TV media cord. No cable, no satellite.

    No more monthly bill. The last fee that we were paying to DISH at $75/month for their cheapest (not even on their menu) package galled me to know that I was spending about $850 / year for generally free content.

    Replaced it with a really great GE antenna and Tablo. (Tablo is a digital tuner/DVR/content provider with a one-time cost.)

    So now it’s Tablo for the local content, Google TV and media streamed from my home server w/ KODI.

    Google TV has brought YouTube offers to the main streaming screen, so now I can see all the late-night talk monologs without recording all the various shows.

    And I said ALL THAT so I can say this: Political commentary has gone from a joke or two to absolute outright sedition.

    Of course, it is well deserved, as this administration has proved itself to concurrently be the most evil and inept version of the Keystone Kops that America could not ever had imagined. Every day is another attack at the constitutional foundations of America, seasoned with moronic acts and statements meant to distract the masses.

    The vitriol and ridicule from the late night hosts is SO fast and furious that I am surprised that the Trump FCC has not found a way to try to stop it.

    While I (and many other of the 60%+ of Americans that disprove of Trump”s performance in the first 100 days) likely are enjoying it… sadly it also leads to support the goals of a fascist administration: creating an us vs them mentality.

    We are likely to see the administration and MAGA supporters become more extreme in their siege mentality and become desperate in their actions.

    So many more days to endure.

    A disturbance in the force, indeed.

    6
  6. Matt Bernius says:

    General reminder, we try our best to avoid banning people (because it’s typically a PIA). Here’s what won’t get you banned:
    – Disagreeing with the hosts or commenters of the blog.
    – Profanity
    – Basic insults
    That includes the many different combinations of those three things.

    What will get you banned (usually after repeat behavior and ignored warnings):
    – Persistent and deeply personal attacks on the hosts or other commenters
    – Derailing comment threads with off-topic posts
    – Posting incomprehensible posts (a subset of the above ones)
    – Direct threats of violence
    – Constantly writing about how you are about to be banned (and other annoying ticks)
    – General racism, homophobia, hatred, etc. that would be unacceptable in most modern neighborhood bars/pubs*
    In keeping with that final point, pretty much anything that is the text-based equivalent of masturbating in public or taking a dump in the punch bowl.

    As I said, this happens typically after repeated, ignored warnings. But not always. There will always be people who decide they want to be Leroy Jenkins. Still the best way to get banned is to ignore when we (James, Steven, Myself, and Kingdaddy) keep asking you to change your behavior pattern and you just keep doing what you are doing Leroy Jenkins** style.

    Is this a subjective system?

    Yup. And much like what Potter Stewart said about pornography: We know ban worthy behavior when we see it.

    Do the different hosts have different thresholds?

    Yup. And we also support each other’s decisions–especially because OTB is a hobby and we care more about curating what we think is a good cocktail party discussion than anything else.

    Do longtime commenters get treated differently?
    Yes. They’ve put in the time and “earned” a bit more slack–especially when compared to the people who have contributed very little to the community beyond constantly taking that metaphorical dump in the punchbowl. And we have had to ban some long-timers after they ignored multiple warnings (seeing a pattern here).

    What about [X, Y, or Z] who has been banned in the past and is back?
    Ok, so here’s the real truth–the reason why we try to avoid banning people is because technology makes bans hard to enforce. User names can be changed. IP address can be changed. The reality is it’s all but impossible to shut someone up on the internet. And usually when someone is banned and walks back in months later under a new name, it takes a while to realize we’re talking about the same person (as they often conceal their writing ticks for a bit).

    As a result, by the time their identity is firmly reestablished, it’s a bit of a PITA to ban them again (especially knowing that they will return). So, for better or worse, we will usually let them slide (again, see “Do longtime commenters get treated differently?”). We will make exceptions, especially when it’s really clear who that person is or if they decide to go down that path that led them to be banned in the first place.

    Also, a few regular commenters have benefited from returning after a ban, so this applies to both sides.

    Also, a request to commenters: Please don’t repeatedly ask for someone to be banned, even if they have been banned in the past.

    This gets the final point: Like every other website, OTB isn’t an actual public space. So, we control the limits of speech, and we can be arbitrary and capricious about those controls. We try our best not to be, but we’re all human and are trying to have fun here. If you don’t like the house rules, you are encouraged to just read the site and then go comment somewhere else that has discussion rules more to your liking.

    Tl;dr: See this Simpson’s clip.

    * – Yes I am sure that some of your neighborhood pubs/bars allow some freaky stuff to go on in them. Understand you are going to the exception that proves the rule.

    ** – If you don’t get this reference, google it as words cannot really unpack that particular meme.

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  7. Matt Bernius says:

    @Matt Bernius:
    I shared that because its came up in a recent thread and I figure it would be useful to share this here too. I will probably turn it into a post sooner or later. This is very first draft.

    3
  8. Rick DeMent says:

    @Matt Bernius:

    Yes. They’ve put in the time and “earned” a bit more slack–especially when compared to the people who have contributed very little to the community beyond constantly taking that metaphorical dump in the punchbowl

    That reminds me of a scene in True Lies, the Arnold action film were Charlton Heston plays the director of a spook agency and says pretty much the same thing to a low ranking operative who joins in on the jocularity of the two experience operatives during a debrief.

    “What makes you think that the slack I cut them in anyway transfers to you?”

    Jump to 20 seconds in 🙂

    2
  9. Scott says:

    I’ve been diving into family history the last few years. Instigated by the boxes and boxes of photos and memorabilia that came out of my mother’s attic. She cared not a whit about them and almost just through them away.

    So I’ve been scanning and sorting and building a family tree anchored by photos. Most public libraries now have access to searchable archives of newspapers from which you can find obituaries, wedding announcement, legal notices, etc.

    So yesterday I was searching anything on line about my great grandmother. And I found this:

    From Cleveland Leader, 12 Jun 1902: Mary J. Fromm, age forty-three years and married, was adjudged insane in the Probate Court and was committed to the State Hospital. Mrs. Fromm has peculiar religious presentments, and prays and cries most of the time. Her friends have endeavored to care for her, but she will not permit them to do anything for her, so the authorities took her in charge.

    Now, I was a pretty good listener in my youth but never heard this story. I also had to verify that this article referred to the same person. Found collaboration on the death certificate (she died in 1915) where it was indicated she was residing at the State Hospital for 12 years, 9 months, and 25 days.

    Just went “wow”. Now, history is history and facts are facts so there is no shame involved. However, our family discussion revolved around what would happen today with all the medications and treatment that we have. It also explains a lot of the skepticism and commentary in family elders about religion even though most attended church regularly.

    I’ve learned to love this detective work. BTW, we have life so much easier today even if you were prosperous 100 years ago.

    9
  10. Mister Bluster says:

    As far as I know nothing that is posted in the comments at OTB is required reading. I would suggest that remarks by the moderators are highly recommended. Guests can ignore them at their own peril.

    Good work Matt Bernius!

    5
  11. @Matt Bernius: I’m Steven Taylor, and I endorse this message.

    16
  12. Scott says:

    Here is a short piece of fascinating WWII history that took place on May 5, 1945, 80 years ago.

    When Americans, Germans and POWs fought the SS from the walls of a castle

    By early May 1945 the war in Europe was all but over. Hitler was dead, having killed himself in his bunker in Berlin rather than let the Soviet forces capture him. Mussolini had died days prior, his body strung up by partisans. American and Soviet forces had already linked up and the remaining German government under Admiral Karl Dönitz was about to formally surrender. German soldiers were either trying to give up to the Allies or in the case of diehards, kill anyone they considered traitor.

    Amidst all that, an American detachment somehow found itself under siege, holed up in an Austrian castle fighting off waves of SS troops. Their unlikely allies? Members of the Wehrmacht, who had joined them in an effort to secure high-value prisoners of war who were kept in the castle.

    The Battle of Castle Itter took place 80 years ago on May 5, 1945. It was one of the last battles in the European theater, and by far one of the strangest. The fight at Castle Itter was the focus of “The Last Battle” by Stephen Harding, which chronicled the events that led to the bewildering siege and the frantic and daring combat that emerged during it.

    Read the rest. It is not a long piece.

    5
  13. Scott says:

    Random thought: Could Alcatraz be America’s Elba?

    1
  14. CSK says:

    @Scott:

    In that case, let’s exile Trump there.

    Trumpoleon.

    3
  15. Joe says:

    @Scott: Not if he could escape from it.

  16. Kathy says:

    @Scott:

    But then the rapist would escape and institute a disastrous 100 day empire.

    Better find an American St. Helena.

    1
  17. Mister Bluster says:

    @Scott:..schizophrenia

    I was born in 1948. In 1956 when I was 8 years old my mother was diagnosed schizophrenic. This was years before medications were available to manage this vile disease. My father had to go to court in New York State where we lived to have her committed to the local State Hospital as she had become violent. There may have been public notice of her commitment since it was ordered in court. However I can’t be sure. Electro shock therapy was one of the treatments she endured. She spent the better part of ten years in those institutions in two states as my father relocated our family to the midwest so we could be close to relatives who supported us.
    I don’t suspect “peculiar religious presentments” would be a term of diagnosis today. She did hear God speak to her all the time. Her first and middle names, Beulah and Esther are biblical and she was convinced that the scripture was referring to her.
    When she was treated with the medications that were developed and available she could come home for weekend visits and eventually was able to stay at home.
    I have memories of her before she fell ill. My brother, born in 1953 and my sister (’55) do not.
    Regular 1950’s stay at home mom who took me on the bus to the beach in the summer while my dad was at work. When it wasn’t my dad’s turn to be the car pool driver she would take me and one of the neighborhood housewives on a drive out to the country to their favorite fruit and vegetable stand.
    My dad took “for better or worse, in sickness and health” seriously. He stuck by her through some very dark times. By the time I left home in 1968 to finish college, my mom was able to live at home as long as she stayed on her medication. She got a part time job at a local grocery store.
    When my dad died at home in 2001 he was 81. They had been married 60 years. My sister lived close to our mom and she checked in on her all the time. Mom was 88 when she died in 2008.
    I like to think of her as a schizophrenia success story.

    Beulah Esther Brown
    Wilmer Albert Brown
    May they rest in a well deserved peace.

    10
  18. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Kathy:
    We have one. It’s called Gitmo.

    2
  19. Daryl says:

    @Joe:
    He can’t even escape from his own diaper

  20. Kathy says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Perhaps a special installation can be set up at the geographic South Pole? You wouldn’t even need to guard it. He could walk out any time.

    3
  21. Neil Hudelson says:

    @Scott:

    I had started dark winds but it didn’t grab me after the first couple of episodes. Will go back and give it more of my attention.

  22. charontwo says:

    A rather odd, thought provoking piece:

    Adam Tooze

    Setting the theme:

    One common theme on the left is the idea of the exhaustion of the future. Mark Fisher articulated the idea forcefully in his writing about the “cancellation of the future”. More recently, the political theorist Jonathan White has warned of the exhaustion of the future as a resource of democratic politics.

    Last month, in a piece in the Guardian Naomi Klein and Astra Taylor took up the theme. They characterize Trump’s politics as “end times fascism”, a politics which rather than constructively seeking to form a liveable world, wagers against the future and instead “banks on the bunker”, either in the form of personal survival (an option for the billionaire elite), planetary exit strategies, or fortress nationalisms.

    In an extraordinary twist, Klein and Taylor compare the current far-right unfavorably to 20th-century fascism.

    The rest does not exactly proceed linearly from this.

    1
  23. Mister Bluster says:

    It has been at least 40 years since I saw Dr. Frederick Frese on Nightline.

    In 1968, Fred was diagnosed with schizophrenia, and ordered to live the rest of his life in the Ohio State Psychiatric System. In 1980, Frese was promoted to the Director of Psychology of the Western Reserve Psychiatric Rehabilitation Center.
    WikiP

    I think that I might have a VHS tape of that interview however my video tape player was retired and went missing years ago. I suppose I could check the internet to see if those machines are still available.

    1
  24. becca says:

    @Scott: Zahn McClarnon is the tribal police chief in Dark Winds. I have a crush on him. He also had a role in Reservation Dogs as a tribal cop. He appeared in Longmire, another good show shot beautifully and well written. If he’s in it, I’ll watch it.

    2
  25. charontwo says:

    @becca:

    I remember him from Westworld (HBO), a really great series.

    1
  26. Stormy Dragon says:

    @Matt Bernius:

    Persistent and deeply personal attacks on the hosts or other commenters

    So persistent and deeply personal attacks on ourselves are okay? Because I’m absolutely the worst.

    1
  27. Beth says:

    @Kathy:

    We got a volcano. Can we throw him in/off it?

    @becca:

    He’s great. I would love a buddy cop movie with him and Ken Watanabe.

    1
  28. Kathy says:

    @Beth:

    We got a volcano. Can we throw him in/off it?

    Just one? We got three just around Mexico City, one of them active.

  29. Kylopod says:

    @charontwo: Westworld Season 1 is one of my favorite series of the past decade, but then it went sharply downhill and I literally stopped watching in the middle of Season 3. I’ve rarely seen a show decline in quality so rapidly.

  30. Scott says:

    @Mister Bluster: Thank goodness for modern medicines, however imperfect. My grandmother was 4 when her mother was institutionalized. Basically raised by 3 much older sisters.

    2
  31. Kathy says:

    I woke up today at 4 am. By 4:15 I’d failed to go back to sleep. I resigned myself to a crappy day, and made some coffee. By 4:30 after one cup of instant coffee, I decided to try to sleep again.

    Next thing I know the 6 am alarm goes off. I shut it off, and slept again until the 6:15 alarm went off.

    Weird.

    It also says something about the effects of caffeine, or maybe about the caffeine content on instant coffee.

    1
  32. Michael Reynolds says:

    If you have Netflix and have not yet seen it, Conan O’Brien’s Kennedy Center honor is great. Sandler, Farrell, Glazer, Triumph the Insult Comic Dog, Masturbating Bear, and many more, and finally, of course, David Letterman.

    1
  33. Gromitt Gunn says:

    The actress who plays Manuelito is also one of the leads in the movie “Rez Ball,” also on Netflix, based on the book Canyon Dreams.

    @Neil Hudelson: It got some tweaking after the first series received critiques from parts of Navajo Nation. Depending on what aspects of Season 1 fell short for you, Season 2 onwards may have shored those up.

    1
  34. Scott says:

    @Gromitt Gunn: @Neil Hudelson: Unlike a lot of series, I think it started too fast. It needed to take more time to introduce characters. The first couple of episodes were a little confusing but it seemed to be in a better groove by the 4th episode.

  35. CSK says:

    Trump announced that he’ll be making a very, very big and very, very positive announcement before he leaves for the Middle East.

  36. Neil Hudelson says:

    @Kylopod:

    [Spoilers]

    Season 2 was definitely not as good as Season 1, but I thought its ending served as a perfect series ender. The robots, well at least one, escapes into the real world. The world as we know it–both the robots’ amusement park world and the exterior world–was over. The viewer’s imagination could fill in the rest.

    So I never watched an episode of season 3.

    @Gromitt Gunn: @Scott: IIRC, I had no particular issue with the show, I believe I had just started watching a few series at once and like saplings competing for the same bit of sunlight in a crowded forest canopy, some were going to whither and die. Really loved McClarnon in reservoir dogs and that drew me to the show. I got into the habit recently of watching a show on my tablet while I use the exercise bike, so starting this anew will motivate me to go a few extra minutes this afternoon.

    2
  37. Kathy says:

    Israel government officials are publicly announcing ethnic cleansing, if not genocide.

    Where the fuck is the rest of the world? And how is protesting this in any way antisemitism?

    4
  38. just nutha says:

    @Mister Bluster: I was going to suggest that Nightline is on some free streaming services, but I remembered you saying that you don’t stream TV at home. 🙁 My bad.

    You could also explore that possibility at Panera or Mickey D’s, I suppose.

    2
  39. Jay L Gischer says:

    I want to flag this piece as very worthwhile, excellent in its clarity:

    1. These people are here to deliberately destroy the federally funded science agencies as we know them. This is not an accident and not a misunderstanding on anyone’s part. That is the goal. The ideologues of the Trump administration are reflexively hostile to what they see as the “Deep State”, defined as longtime government staff of all sorts, and they are particularly hostile to agencies that generate what they feel are findings that obstruct their own agendas.

    3
  40. Mister Bluster says:

    @just nutha:..free streaming

    Thank you for the information.

  41. becca says:

    @Scott: I lost interest in season one, decided to give it another shot because of loyalty to my crush. Into season two now. George RR Martin and Robert Redford are executive producers along with Zahn McClarnon. Martin and Redford make a cameo in season three. Anyone see it?Looks like season four is upcoming.
    I grew up in Albuquerque, in the foot hills of the Sandia mountains. Watching DWs reminds me how much I loved it there. New Mexico kinda really is the Land of Enchantment.

    2
  42. CSK says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    I’ve said this before, but you’re a wonderful storyteller, no matter whether the story is tragic or humorous.

    1
  43. Gustopher says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    The world as we know it–both the robots’ amusement park world and the exterior world–was over. The viewer’s imagination could fill in the rest.

    So I never watched an episode of season 3.

    On a similar vein, I’ve only ever seen the first 30 minutes or so of Independence Day. Whatever happens after the aliens kill everyone is probably not as good a story as the aliens coming and killing everyone.

    From watching enough movies, I can see the structure of how this guy is going to be the hero and what not, so I expect that the apparent death of everyone we’ve been following is a fake out, I don’t really need to watch the rest of the movie.

    Ending by just killing everyone, however, is a much bolder choice than anything they were going to do. It’s the better ending.

    2
  44. Mister Bluster says:

    Seen on FB.

    At press conference Trump had a beer thrown at him. He is ok.
    It was a draft so he was able to dodge it.

    7
  45. steve says:

    @Jay L Gischer: You just beat me to it, but Thought section 2 and 3 were really most disturbing. I read lots of medical literature. I have found it nearly impossible to discuss with people on the right as they dont recognize any data or studies valid unless its results they like.

    “2. They are also hostile to the very idea of real data. People with this mindset (and you can find them both on the left and right ends of the political spectrum) do not even believe that agenda-less data are possible. In this view, everyone, every time, everywhere is pushing one point of view or another, so now that you have the levers of power in your hands it’s time to push your own agenda as hard as you possibly can. Part of that is getting rid of anything that might sow uncertainty or say otherwise. Those so-called “independent” data scientists are liars who are trying to stop you. Anyone who says anything that does not completely support your program is a liar who is trying to stop you. And you know what to do with them.

    3. To these ends it is permissible to say and do anything, anything at all. These ends justify any means – really, anything you can think of. You do not have to be consistent, nor rational, nor in accord with anyone else’s so-called “facts”. Facts are what you say they are – I mean, what else could they be? It’s fun to watch the funny little people tie themselves in knots trying to figure out the reasons behind your barrage of ever-changing statements and bleating about “contradictions” and “missteps”.”

    Steve

    4
  46. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Gustopher:

    It’s the better ending.

    Better ending though it may be, as Luddite’s grandmother used to caution him about his predilection to just shooting Batman, “just shooting him makes for bad TV.” [in the sense of a continuing story, I suppose]

    ETA: @Mister Bluster: ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!

    1
  47. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Gustopher:

    Ending by just killing everyone, however, is a much bolder choice than anything they were going to do. It’s the better ending.

    Try that out on any movie that might have even the slightest chance of getting a sequel and the studio will send a hitman to deal with you.

    You’ll be surprised when the hitman pulls off his motorcycle helmet and shakes out her long, blond hair, and coincidentally is gorgeous. Although the leather cat suit with ample visible cleavage might have been a clue. Don’t try to fight her because even though she’s made out of twigs and silicone she’s the world’s greatest MMA fighter.

    But if the actress is hot enough and is named Sydney or Scarlett, or only has one name, maybe a name starting with a ‘Z’ then she probably has a core of decency she’ll try to hide with brusque, rude behavior. But you’ll see through her defenses to the vulnerable woman inside. Then she might not even kill you if you have abs, she may fuck you but only in a sort of shadow play where body parts don’t seem to quite line up.

    Final action scene, tie up the plot threads and roll credits. Coming Soon: Killer Hot Chick Part Two: The Chickening.

    2
  48. Bobert says:

    @Scott:
    My enchantment with Dark Winds is rooted in my deep interest in Indian culture and traditions. The genesis of Dark Winds comes via Tony Hillerman (RIP) who would weave a police/detective tale with a liberal explanation of Navaho customs.
    As an example, when Navaho would introduce themselves to other natives (particularly of the opposite sex) they would take pains to identify the band to which they belonged. Hillerman would illustrate this along with the rationale – to avoid the possibility of intermarriage – A MAJOR Taboo among the tribes.
    I’ve really enjoyed all of Zahn’s work as well as Tantoo Cardinal, and August Schellenberg.
    For those interested in the life on the Rez, I recommend Smoke Signals. Having lived on Pine Ridge Res on and off for several years it brings back many memories.
    For those that might be interested in the mystical side of the Lakota, I would recommend “The Dreamkeeper”

  49. gVOR10 says:

    On the question of what should Dems do, I’ve tried a few times to say don’t talk about policy, fight. At Balloon Juice this morning Betty Cracker does a much better job. She quotes Josh Marshall,

    The DC discourse tells us that the Democrats lost in 2024 because their party became too “woke” and identified with purported elite concerns about trans rights, DEI, “open borders” and the like. The truth, I think, is a bit different. The reality of the 2024 election is that there was concentrated public unhappiness with inflation, the high cost of living and other dislocations tied to the aftermath of the pandemic. Republicans were able to make the case with a key slice of voters that Democrats were indifferent to the cost of living because they were so focused on pronouns and DEI. That notorious Trump ad (“Kamala is for they/them. I am for you”) I think captures this…

    Obviously, anti-trans voters ate this ad up. But I think it’s real power comes in that message about, who are you for? Who do you care about? Trans rights supporters make a very good point when they point to polls which show most voters are not anti-trans. Where things break down is on the question of salience. If Republicans can successfully make the argument that Democrats don’t care about cost of living challenges facing the majority of Americans because they’re hyper-focused on trans issues or making sure trans women can compete in women’s sports, that’s a big problem. You change that misunderstanding or perhaps you get the party to change less by holding performative intra-party battles than simply by driving up the salience of different issues through the act of being an opposition.

    It’s not true that we screwed up by making {trans, DEI, Woke, vaccines, antisemitism, …} an issue, they made those things issues. And they’ll find other cultural trivia to exploit if we surrender on those. Let me modify my introductory prescription – don’t focus on OUR policy, focus on their policy. Show that we fight for the middle class (broadly defined as the 99.9%).

    2
  50. Kathy says:

    @Gustopher:
    @Michael Reynolds:

    MINOR SPOILER

    There’s a novel by Joe Haldeman called Forever Peace (not part of the Forever War narrative). Part of the plot concerns a physics experiment in Jupiter that will destroy the universe (not thinking small*). I thought for sure the book would conclude with such destruction, as that would bring peace forever.

    I was wrong.

    As for Independence Day, it would have been a better movie has it ended after the aliens blast several major structures, though they didn’t kill everyone right then. What followed went from stupid to cliche to corny.

    *In The Gods Themselves, the physics project would have destroyed only one arm of the Galaxy.

  51. gVOR10 says:

    @steve:

    People with this mindset (and you can find them both on the left and right ends of the political spectrum) do not even believe that agenda-less data are possible. In this view, everyone, every time, everywhere is pushing one point of view or another.

    I have a little different take, that ends up at the same place. Psych types talk about System 1 and System 2 thinking. This was the thesis of Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow. System 2 is slow, logical, and requires conscious effort. System 1 is fast, unconscious intuition. System 1 ~= faith.

    A lot of people default to System 1. They might use System 2 to figure out if it’s better to go to the hardware store first or the grocery. But for something like, say, tariffs, they default easily to intuitive feelings of distrust of foreigners, or whatever. Almost necessary if you lack Econ 102 concepts like comparative advantage and the curiosity to read people who do understand.

    The thing is, they think that’s what you do. Their faith says they don’t like masks and Dr. Fauci has a faith that idolizes masks. For them, all “facts” are a matter of faith. And since their faith is intuitively correct, yours is false. And everything is a religious war.

    For Republicans this meshes nicely with the fact that experts say stop burning coal and raise taxes. Our oligarchs cannot have “experts” spreading heresies like that.

    2
  52. CSK says:

    According to the NYT and other sources, the Supreme Court has allowed Trump to implement his ban on trans people in the military.

  53. Mister Bluster says:

    @CSK:…

    I am humbled by your kind words.
    Thank you.

    2
  54. Scott says:

    This is not good. Stay tuned.

    India says it has launched strikes on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir

    Indian forces have attacked Pakistan with missiles in three locations, Pakistan’s military spokesman is quoted by the country’s state TV as saying.

    There are also reports of intense shelling and loud explosions in border areas of the Pakistan-administered state of Kashmir, according to Reuters news agency.

    Relations between India and Pakistan have declined sharply following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir last month. India accuses Pakistan of backing cross-border terrorism – a charge Islamabad flatly denies.

    1
  55. Michael Reynolds says:

    @gVOR10:

    they made those things issues

    Yes, they will. Which is why we need to pay a bit more attention to our counter. And why we need our messaging on these social issues be less confrontational and more open.

    But even more important is to crowd those issues out of the target area by having something to say, a direction we intend to lead the country. We let them define us because we had no message. More message = less peripheral space. Please note: I don’t mean that we throw anyone under the bus. We have to believe in something, and we have to stick to it. We have to be true to our core character. Just do it less dogmatically.

    Shortcut: listen to whatever Buttigieg has to say on social issues, and to AOC on the larger, economic issue. They are both very good at the game.

    3
  56. Scott says:

    @Scott: Pakistan vows to respond to ‘cowardly attack

    A spokesperson for Pakistan’s military says Islamabad “will respond to this [attack] at a time and place of its choosing”.

    All of our air force jets are airborne. This is a shameful and cowardly attack that was carried our from within India’s airspace,” the spokesman adds.

  57. CSK says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    It’s true. You know exactly how much needs to be said. That’s talent.

  58. Scott says:

    @Scott: I wonder whether our intelligence agencies knew this was coming or whether it is a surprise. Really, this is the first serious international crisis under the new administration.

    2
  59. Mister Bluster says:

    @Scott:..Thank goodness for modern medicines, however imperfect.

    With Donald Trump and his Looney Toon Secretary of HHS running things I suspect we won’t see much progress in the development of remedies for the treatment of mental health diseases.

    When I Google National Institute of Mental Health funding cuts I get this.

    The Trump administration has faced criticism for significant funding cuts at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), including the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH). These cuts have resulted in the termination of research grants, the cancellation of ongoing projects, and potential disruption to scientific research across various fields. The proposed cuts, which include a 40% reduction in NIH’s budget, have raised concerns about the impact on medical research, particularly in areas like cancer, HIV, and mental health.

    Disclaimer. Some information is AI generated

    2
  60. Mister Bluster says:

    @CSK:..talent

    Again, thank you.
    When my friend Joe was alive I always thought that we could write about our travels together and other life events. Being disabled he spent a lot of time reading and could talk about many things. Me, not so much.
    Well he up and died on me (goddamn cigarettes) before we could put our heads together. I have tried to write a story or two about our adventures but my memory has faded and it would be nice if he were around to fill in the blanks.
    I do think that he would have something to say about the current anti-vaccine sentiment since he was a quadriplegic who contracted polio as an infant and never took one walking step in his life.
    Maybe I should try a seance or a Ouija board or maybe a good hit of acid would bring the memories back.
    We did do excessive amounts of drugs.

    4
  61. Gustopher says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Shortcut: listen to whatever Buttigieg has to say on social issues, and to AOC on the larger, economic issue. They are both very good at the game.

    They’re very good at talking to us, but I don’t know that they are very good at talking to everyone else.

    I’m not saying you’re necessarily wrong, but you’re in a spot where you won’t notice if you are because of confirmation bias.

    Buttigieg in particular is really good at telling me exactly what I already believe, and explaining, patiently and thoughtfully, how I am completely right. I think Elizabeth Warren is a little bit better at that, but only by a hair. And I know Warren doesn’t work for a lot of people.

    I do think that with Trump and the Republicans making trans people the biggest issue in 2024, Harris needed to give a strong defense of trans folks, tying it back to core principles of freedom, liberty, and the government not trying to control your life, trans, Jewish, Christian, whatever. Instead she got quieter and quieter on the issue.

    5
  62. Jen says:

    @Gustopher: Buttigeg was recently on a conservative podcast, and he was able to explain and get agreement from the conservative host within minutes about the importance of funding basic science (which admittedly should be a no brainer, but here we are).

    AOC is a terrific communicator to Democrats, but conservatives won’t give her the same grace they extend to Pete. I wonder why….

    4
  63. Connor says:

    @CSK:

    I suspect, but obviously don’t know, that this is about the Houthi’s.

    But let’s face it, does anyone over there keep their word?

  64. Connor says:

    @Jay L Gischer:

    I think you are correct. Where I think you err is to attribute it only to one side. “Hooray for our side” really isn’t productive. CSN had it right many years ago.

  65. CSK says:

    @Connor:

    But Trump spoke about it as a matter distinct from the Houthis.

  66. Connor says:

    @CSK: @CSK:

    Then I have no insights.

  67. Connor says:

    @Jen:

    Jenn –

    I think that needs a bit more fleshing out. Just saying “I’m for basic research” is like saying I’m for good things, and against bad things.

    Government funded “basic research” comes, by its nature, with biases. Look at Covid, or climate. Toe the line, you get money. Don’t, you are screwed. But facts are brutal. I’m sure you have seen the most recent Arctic Ice results. “Basic research” has been destroyed. States are not under water. Ice is at record levels. Ooopsey. 6 ft distancing? Science. And yet Fauci himself said it was made up over a beer.

    I’m not saying there aren’t things that government funded research are not required for. I’m saying, be careful, its really political. Look, I’m an engineer by original training. Still love to dabble in materials science issues. But don’t kid yourself. Basic research as angelic is a myth.

  68. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Gustopher:
    Absent the sports issue she could have gone hard. But that is a non-starter with people outside the progressive core. It was a poison pill, which is why I was so worried about it and believed it was unhelpful.

    I think we have yet to see whether AOC’s eat the rich message resonates with the hoi polloi. She’s tough and fearless, she knows what she believes, and she communicates it well. Farming is about to get shit hammered by tariffs and labor shortages, and I don’t know if she can connect with those people, or not. I guess we’ll see. But if the message works, then she becomes Ripley rather than Snow White.

    1
  69. Kari Q says:

    With the topic of Alcatraz becoming a prison again in the news, a bit of urban legend returns: White sharks in the bay are part of the reason why no one escaped from Alcatraz.

    There are no recorded instances of white sharks attacking anyone in the San Francisco Bay. They show up occasionally, but are almost never interested in humans. There’s no evidence that any escape failed because the escaping inmate was eaten by a shark.

    I’m not sure why this annoys me, but it does. White sharks simply don’t want to eat people. By their standards, we are skinny and bony and probably taste terrible. Most shark bites by whites are from young sharks, under 10 feet, and are probably more a result of the shark being curious than any intentional feeding. Not that that would make me feel better if I was bitten.

    2
  70. Jax says:

    @Connor: Ohhhh, Drew. You’re so far from “on the ground”

    4
  71. Matt Bernius says:

    @Connor:

    “Basic research” has been destroyed. States are not under water. Ice is at record levels.

    Funny, doing basic research (i.e. a quick Google) shows that what you are claiming is, of course, wrong. In fact, its the usual cherry picking data sets that appeals to a certain type of dupe.

    https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/cherry-picked-antarctic-ice-data-does-not-disprove-climate-change-2025-02-11/

    2
  72. wr says:

    @becca: “If he’s in it, I’ll watch it.”

    He’s also in the first season of Westworld as the terrifying leader of the Ghost Nation. (He might have been in subsequent seasons, but after the brilliant first one it got so bad I stopped watching…)

  73. wr says:

    @Kylopod: ” I’ve rarely seen a show decline in quality so rapidly.”

    The trouble was that the first season was a brilliant puzzle box… and it was solved in the end. And then there was just nowhere for the show to go. Kind of makes me admire the creative auspices behind the HBO Watchmen who had one season’s worth of story and when that was over, they stopped.

  74. @wr: Agreed on both counts.

  75. Jay L Gischer says:

    @Connor: I just quoted something that I thought was worthwhile to read.

    Not sure how that can be “right” and also BSDI. Maybe you liked the piece?