Tuesday’s Forum

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. Kathy says:

    “The weak are strong because they are reckless. The strong are weak because they have scruples.” Otto von Bismark.

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  2. Jen says:

    From the “gross incompetence” file: the new head of FEMA didn’t realize there was a hurricane season.

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  3. CSK says:

    @Jen:

    Hey, Homeland Security says it was just a joke.

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  4. CSK says:

    Joe Walsh has joined the Democratic Party.

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  5. charontwo says:

    More Republican stupidity, part n:

    Noahpinion substack

    OK, so there’s your old WW2 parable, with a clear moral to the story: Don’t ignore technological revolutions. Now fast-forward to 2025. We may just have witnessed something akin to a modern Battle of Taranto. For years, Russia has used its strategic bombers — which can also carry nuclear weapons — to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine from a huge distance. The Ukrainians had attacked these bombers on the ground with drones, but the Russians simply moved them farther away, well out of reach of anything the Ukrainians could launch from their own territory.

    So the Ukrainians got sneaky. They packed a bunch of drones — little plastic battery-powered quadcopters, not too different from a toy you would fly at the park — into trucks and (somehow) sent the trucks all the way across Russia. When the trucks got close to the air force bases where the Russians had parked their bombers, the Ukrainian drones popped out of the trucks and started blowing up the bombers — and other planes — on the ground. You can see the footage of the attack here: …

    The American military is much better than the Russian military, but it’s ultimately not that different — it’s built around a bunch of big, expensive, heavy “platforms” like aircraft carriers, jet planes, and tanks. Each F-22 stealth fighter, still widely considered the best plane in the sky, cost about $350 million to build. A Ford-class aircraft carrier costs about $13 billion each. An M1A1 Abrams tank costs more than $4 million, and so on.

    That’s the amount of value that will be destroyed every time a cheap plastic battery-powered Chinese drone takes out an expensive piece of American hardware in a war over Taiwan, or the South China Sea, or Xi Jinping waking up in a bad mood — not including, of course, the lives of whatever Americans happen to be inside the hardware when it gets destroyed. Except the true value lost will be much higher, since — like Japan in World War 2, or Russia now — the U.S. now has extremely limited defense manufacturing capacity, and thus won’t be able to easily replace what it loses.

    As you read this, military planners all over the world are scrambling to come up with defenses against the kind of raid that Ukraine just carried out. Dozens of container ships arrive in American ports from China every day, each with thousands of containers. The containers on the ships then get unloaded and sent by road and rail to destinations all over the country. Imagine a hundred of those containers suddenly blossoming into swarms of drones, taking out huge chunks of America’s multi-trillion-dollar air force and navy in a few minutes.

    Now, though, Donald Trump and the Republicans are canceling the policies that were promoting American battery manufacturing:

    A tax and policy bill passed by House Republicans…would gut subsidies for battery manufacturing, incentives for purchases of electric vehicles by individuals and businesses, and money for charging stations that Congress passed during the Biden administration. And it would impose a new annual fee on owners of electric cars and trucks.

    Electric vehicles are crucial for battery manufacturing capacity, because in peacetime, they’re the main source of demand for batteries. Pump up the EV industry, and you pump up the battery industry too — just as the chart above shows Biden doing. Kill the EV industry and you kill the battery industry too, just as Republicans now want to do. Harming the solar industry will also harm the battery industry, because some types of batteries are used to store solar energy for when the sun isn’t shining.

    GOP policies are already mauling the American battery industry:

    [M]ore [battery] projects were canceled in the first quarter of 2025 than in the previous two years combined. Those cancellations include a $1 billion factory in Georgia that would have made thermal barriers for batteries and a $1.2 billion lithium-ion battery factory in Arizona…“It’s hard at the moment to be a manufacturer in the U.S. given uncertainties on tariffs, tax credits and regulations,” said Tom Taylor, senior policy analyst at Atlas Public Policy. Hundreds of millions of dollars in additional investments appear to be stalled, he added, but haven’t been formally canceled yet.

    In fact, the whole boom in American factory construction that happened under Biden appears to be halting and going into reverse under Trump, thanks to a combination of tariffs and the expected cancellation of industrial policies:

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  6. Mister Bluster says:

    Not the singer.

    Former Tea Partier Joins Democratic Party, Heads To South Carolina
    “Currently, only the Democratic Party is on the side of all three of these core American values,” Walsh wrote. “There isn’t a third party coming to the rescue any time soon. Right now, the Democratic Party is democracy’s lone defender and best hope.”

    He’s from The Prairie State.

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  7. JohnSF says:

    Looks like Ukraine has mounted another successful operation.
    They’ve hit the Kerch Bridge with a submarine-drone operation

    There also some (unconfirmed) reports that Ukraine was able to catch so many aircraft in the open because Russia was planning a massive air strike to coincide with the “peace talks”.

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  8. Scott says:

    @JohnSF: I was going to write that the Ukrainians should lob a drone or two at Putin’s vacation home in Sochi but then I read this:

    Putin’s Black Sea Retreat Demolished as Russian Leader Fears Visiting—Report

    Part of Vladimir Putin’s summer residence has been demolished with the Russian leader seemingly increasingly reluctant to visit the property on the Black Sea because of the dangers posed by Ukrainian drone attacks, it has been reported.

    Independent Russian investigative outlet Proekt (Project) said satellite imagery shows that the main building of the Bocharov Ruchey property in Sochi had been demolished in February and March, leaving a pit and construction equipment in its place.

    So sad.

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  9. Kathy says:

    @Jen:

    I think the plan is not to see hurricanes coming, then claim no one could have foreseen the vast destruction and loss of life. It begins by short staffing the weather service.

    I suppose next we’ll hear it’s because DEIwokedeepstatesocialists, and the whole of NWS, NHC, NOAA, and perhaps others, need to be eliminated.

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  10. charontwo says:

    Site is very slow to load pages, even more slow to post comments.

    Windows 11 desktop, Chrome browser.

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  11. Kathy says:

    @charontwo:

    Same. Win 11 laptop and chrome.

    On other things, I’ve gone into escapist entertainment for the time being. I got The Rise and Fall of the Galactic Empire yesterday, and managed to read halfway through the introduction. It’s weird having a fictional universe discussed in scholarly popularization terms by a serious historian, complete with mentions of Rey Skywalker and Poe Dameron as though they had been real people…

    It also feels odd to read a hardcover book. I don’t think I’ve bought a paper book since 2012*, and certainly no hardcovers since well before then. just about all of my reading since then, which has grown to Brobdingnagian proportions (average at a guess of 40 books per year, plus history podcasts) has been audiobooks and a few ebooks.

    *That was on a day trip to Houston, TX. I had several hours to wait for my flight back. instead of trying to get in some sightseeing, I headed to the one place I know I can happily spend hours at: a bookstore. It took me even longer to figure out which books I wanted most, seeing as space in my laptop bag, sans laptop, was limited.

    I did consider a visit to the Johnson Space Center, but the time simply wasn’t enough for that. Back when I visited the Kennedy Space Center in Florida in the 90s, I literally had to be dragged away from half of the exhibits.

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  12. Beth says:

    @CSK:

    Grocery shopping during my time in the U.K. was clearly more sedate than it appears to be now.

    Lol, so for most of the day it’s actually pretty sedate. Then around 5-6 it starts to get, eh, chippy. Not bad, just, loud and weird. Usually starts earlier Thursday though Sunday.

    Amusingly, in a paranoid sense of the word, there’s a mean looking guard and they just installed a blast shield around the one clerk till in the store. Like, this is bougie hipsterland, with NO GUNS, what do we think is going to happen?

    The fear of violence is way out of proportion of the actual threat of violence.

    Other sundry UK musings:

    — I don’t understand the garbage bags here. It’s a very “three seashells” kinda thing. Why are there 5o different types of garbage bags.

    — British pop sucks majorly. Like, I get that pop is not good for you and Americans drink way to much. But, come on man, I just want a Pepsi that doesn’t takes like suffering pisswater.

    — Thankfully, however, the Jamaicans have their shit together. Jamaican Fruit Punch rules. The Ginger beer ruled and I am optimistically afraid of the “fiery” Ginger Beer.

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  13. Jay L Gischer says:

    @Mister Bluster: Joe Walsh is a former (R) congressman, who is moving to SC, and thinking about running against Annie Andrews in the Senate primary.

    Michael linked Andrews’ intro ad yesterday. Apparently she’s scaring people, because that piece you linked describes her as “uber woke”.

    The piece also is full of doomsaying, too. Apparently some people are afraid of Andrews?

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  14. Mister Bluster says:

    @Jay L Gischer:..Joe Walsh is a former (R) congressman, who is moving to SC, and thinking about running against Annie Andrews in the Senate primary.

    I read the entire item before I posted it.
    I also watched the entire Andrews’ intro ad yesterday that MR linked to.
    As for doomsaying: life’s a bitch and then you die.

    ETA: The price of a bag of potato chips at Panera went up again. 10¢
    When will it ever end?

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  15. @charontwo: Windows 11 and Firefox here.

  16. Sleeping Dog says:

    @charontwo:

    Same here Mac running chrome.

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  17. Connor says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    He’s a crank and an idiot.

  18. Matt Bernius says:

    Seen the reports of sure performance. Experiencing it too. Going to look into it.

  19. CSK says:

    @Matt Bernius:

    Thanks. You can add me to the list.

  20. CSK says:

    Musk just tweeted that Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” is a “disgusting abomination.”

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  21. Matt Bernius says:

    Quick update: Rebooted the server–let me know if that improves things.

  22. CSK says:

    @Matt Bernius:

    The reboot seems to be working for me. Thanks.

  23. CSK says:

    @CSK:

    Spoke too soon. It’s now worse than before.

  24. just nutha says:

    @Beth: In Korea, different trash bags (and bins) were for segregated trash and recycling. The bags were also about collecting the charges associated with each sort of collection. We separated food trash (compostable) from non-compost trash from recyclable plastic, paper, glass, (all sorted from each other) from fabric and textiles, and so on. Korea needed its immigrant chattel-property-class workers for factory work Koreans didn’t want their children doing and had none to spare for sorting recyclables post disposal.

    In the US we solve the sorting problems by collecting fewer varieties of recyclables and putting more trash into the landfills and oceans. Different strokes for different folks (and so on and so on and do bi do bi do).

    ETA: On the soda/pop front, if you something called “Milkis” there, you might give it a try. Lotte Confections made it in Korea, and it was pretty good.

  25. becca says:

    @CSK: Lordy, Lordy, gonna be a hot time at the White House tonight!
    This is all so profoundly weird.

  26. Kathy says:

    @CSK:

    Takes one to know one, right? 😀

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  27. CSK says:

    @becca: @Kathy:

    The MAGAs are saying that this is Congress’s bill, not Trump’s. Yeah, yeah, I know, but how else are they supposed to reconcile a dispute between their two deities?

  28. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Matt Bernius:

    definitely helped

  29. Jen says:

    MTG is upset about the ban on AI regulation, and says she wouldn’t have voted for the big beautiful (gag) bill “if she’d known it was in there.”

    Stating in public that you don’t know what you voted on is certainly an interesting flex for a member of congress.

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  30. al Ameda says:

    @charontwo:

    Site is very slow to load pages, even more slow to post comments.
    Windows 11 desktop, Chrome browser.

    I have a new-ish Mac Laptop, use Chrome browser.
    Periodically seems sluggish, but it could be a function of where I live and the on-and-off wireless out here in the valleys near the Pacific coast.

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  31. CSK says:

    @Jen:

    Trump wanted it passed, so she voted for it. Of course she didn’t read it.

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  32. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @CSK:

    The MAGAs are saying that this is Congress’s bill, not Trump’s.

    [Mr. Rogers’ voice: Can you say “a distinction without a difference?” I knew you could.]

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  33. Kathy says:

    @Jen:
    @CSK:

    So, too lazy or too stupid to have ChatGPT summarize it? That’s one thing the LLMs do rather well.

    Speaking of which:

    The Electric Monk was a labor-saving device, like a dishwasher or a video recorder. Dishwashers washed tedious dishes for you, thus saving you the bother of washing them yourself, video recorders watched tedious television for you, thus saving you the bother of looking at it yourself; Electric Monks believed things for you, thus saving you what was becoming an increasingly onerous task, that of believing all the things the world expected you to believe.”

    ― Douglas Adams, Dirk Gently’s Holistic Detective Agency.

    I wonder what Adams would have thought in this context of LLMs.

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  34. Mister Bluster says:

    Page loading and comment posting has been variable for me today. Some times delayed and other times lightning fast normal. (Two comment up loads is not much of a sample. They both posted immediately.)
    I know nothing about how the internet works however if there is some sort of network issue I suspect that my FB and You Tube links would exhibit the same delays. They have not.

    Same OTB site behavior on both devices.
    MacBook Air Chrome
    iPhone SE iOS 16.1

    ETA: This comment posted quickly.

    ETA2: First Edit, not so fast.

  35. CSK says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    Well, as I said, that’s the best rationalization they seem to be able to muster so far. It must be trying, being a MAGA. Like Lewis Carroll’s White Queen, you have to believe “six impossible things before breakfast.” I don’t know how they do it.

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  36. dazedandconfused says:

    @Kathy:

    I’m sure Adams could’ve created a literary walk-off homer out of hallucinating LLMs.

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  37. Kathy says:

    Reaction to the Trailer Queen’s comments on the Big Ugly Bill iclude this gem:

    Representative Mark Pocan was more forward: “Read the f**king bill instead of clapping for it like a performing monkey. You should have done your job while it was written. You didn’t. You own that vote.”

    That’s one man who really hates monkeys.

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  38. Kathy says:

    @dazedandconfused:

    I asked Copilot: “Where would LLMs like yourself fit into this progression: Dishwashers washed tedious dishes for you, thus saving you the bother of washing them yourself, video recorders watched tedious television for you, thus saving you the bother of looking at it yourself; Electric Monks believed things for you, thus saving you what was becoming an increasingly onerous task, that of believing all the things the world expected you to believe”

    It began to answer, and then the gatekeeping program lowered the bar. The answer vanished, and then Copilot claimed to be unable to answer at this moment, and could it help with anything else.

    Then it did the same thing when I asked whether I’d deserve a grade on a paper if I asked it to write it for me.

    We may get general AI, but it won’t be allowed to think critically or to introspect.

    UPDATE: I added after a third attempt, “It seems you’re having an off day.” Copilot then brought up the first question on its own and answered:

    LLMs think for you, thus saving you the increasingly complex task of synthesizing, analyzing, and articulating knowledge in a world overflowing with information.

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  39. Gustopher says:

    @Kathy:

    So, too lazy or too stupid to have ChatGPT summarize it? That’s one thing the LLMs do rather well.

    She could have also read a newspaper or watched a tv show outside of the right wing bubble. Or had a staffer do so. The AI stuff was reported on.

    I know that most things outside the right wing bubble are controlled by Jewish Space Lasers, but sometimes the JSLs are pointing at things that are problems. At the very least, if she knew the criticisms ahead of time, she could have mocked the Demoncrat Pedophile Rings for caring about children not being cut off from SNAP benefits… it’s suspicious they spend so much time thinking about children, isn’t it?

    Anyway, does this mean she will vote against the bill if this provision survives conference committee? It’s not like she got fooled and now has no power to do anything about it.

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  40. Kathy says:

    @Gustopher:

    She could have also read a newspaper…

    If El Taco doesn’t read, then neither does anyone else.

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