Outside the Beltway

Another Straw on the Back of the Negative Perry Narrative

· Saturday, September 24, 2011 · 6 comments

Via USAT:  Cain upsets Perry at Florida straw poll

The final tally: Cain carried 37% of the vote, Perry 15% and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 14%. Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum was at 11%, Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 10% and former House speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%. Trailing far behind were former Utah governor Jon Huntsman and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, at 2%.

Understand that the results of a straw poll are almost meaningless (especially in terms of understanding what the voters of a given state actually want).

Having said that, this will certainly help feed the current meme that Perry is in trouble in terms of his position as frontrunner.

And to the Cain supporters in the audience:  no, this does not mean that Cain is a serious, viable candidate for the nomination.

FILED UNDER: 2012 Election, US Politics, , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Michael says:
    Saturday, 24 September 2011 at 20:24

    Understand that the results of a straw poll are almost meaningless

    Are you suggesting that winning the Ames straw poll wasn’t critical to rocketing Michelle Bachmann all the way to 2% in Florida?

  2. newrouter says:
    Saturday, 24 September 2011 at 22:05

    Understand that the results of a straw poll are almost meaningless (especially in terms of understanding what the voters of a given state actually want).

    yea you’re a “super genius”

    RULE 4:

    All delegates to Presidency 5 shall be Florida residents and registered Republicans as of February 1, 2011. The delegates must caucus with the county delegation in the county in which they are registered to vote as of their Presidency 5 application to become a delegate.

    link

  3. mattb says:
    Saturday, 24 September 2011 at 22:51

    @newrouter:

    The delegates must caucus with the county delegation in the county in which they are registered to vote as of their Presidency 5 application to become a delegate.

    So … basically, which ever candidate can get the most of their supporters to have registered (including willing to pay $175 dollars to caucus (see FAQ http://www.presidency5.com/faq/) and show up as delegates… Rule 6 (same page):

    In order to be considered to be an eligible applicant you must register online at www. Presidency5.com. Only applications received online will be considered. Registration will be open between April 10 and June 10, 2011. The county delegate selection caucuses will take place between June 15 and August 1, 2011

    As with Iowa this was about on the ground organization more than anything else. And note that the Registration timing coincides with the height of Cain’s popularity.

    Also note that Bachmann and Romney chose not to actively participate.

  4. Herb says:
    Sunday, 25 September 2011 at 00:01

    Newrouter, you seem to have confused “almost meaningless” with “totally meaningless.”

  5. JohnMcC says:
    Sunday, 25 September 2011 at 08:15

    Let’s pause and unpack this. Bachmann wins the Iowa straw poll — and she’s almost instantly a nonentity. Rick Perry enters the field and is instantly number one but three debates later we’re begging Chris Christie (again) to enter the race. And now Herman Cain beats both “front-runners” and it doesn’t mean a thing.

    But the Repub party and the conservative movement are serious people. They are definitely going to win the next Presidential election.

    When this so-called-conservative movement is a footnote in the history books I will still be laughing at you guys.

  6. mattb says:
    Sunday, 25 September 2011 at 09:02

    Quick correction on my above comments… I shouldn’t have compared this to Iowa in terms of organization.

    That doesn’t however contradict the fact that the causcuses skewed heavily towards activists.

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