Another Straw on the Back of the Negative Perry Narrative

September 24, 2011

Comments

Via USAT: Cain upsets Perry at Florida straw poll

The final tally: Cain carried 37% of the vote, Perry 15% and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 14%. Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum was at 11%, Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 10% and former House speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%. Trailing far behind were former Utah governor Jon Huntsman and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, at 2%.

Understand that the results of a straw poll are almost meaningless (especially in terms of understanding what the voters of a given state actually want).

Having said that, this will certainly help feed the current meme that Perry is in trouble in terms of his position as frontrunner.

And to the Cain supporters in the audience: no, this does not mean that Cain is a serious, viable candidate for the nomination.

6 responses to “Another Straw on the Back of the Negative Perry Narrative”

Michael

September 24, 2011 at 8:24 pm

Understand that the results of a straw poll are almost meaningless

Are you suggesting that winning the Ames straw poll wasn’t critical to rocketing Michelle Bachmann all the way to 2% in Florida?
newrouter

September 24, 2011 at 10:05 pm

Understand that the results of a straw poll are almost meaningless (especially in terms of understanding what the voters of a given state actually want).

yea you’re a “super genius”

RULE 4:

All delegates to Presidency 5 shall be Florida residents and registered Republicans as of February 1, 2011. The delegates must caucus with the county delegation in the county in which they are registered to vote as of their Presidency 5 application to become a delegate.

link
mattb

September 24, 2011 at 10:51 pm

@newrouter:

The delegates must caucus with the county delegation in the county in which they are registered to vote as of their Presidency 5 application to become a delegate.

So … basically, which ever candidate can get the most of their supporters to have registered (including willing to pay $175 dollars to caucus (see FAQ http://www.presidency5.com/faq/) and show up as delegates… Rule 6 (same page):

In order to be considered to be an eligible applicant you must register online at www. Presidency5.com. Only applications received online will be considered. Registration will be open between April 10 and June 10, 2011. The county delegate selection caucuses will take place between June 15 and August 1, 2011

As with Iowa this was about on the ground organization more than anything else. And note that the Registration timing coincides with the height of Cain’s popularity.

Also note that Bachmann and Romney chose not to actively participate.
Herb

September 25, 2011 at 12:01 am

Newrouter, you seem to have confused “almost meaningless” with “totally meaningless.”
JohnMcC

September 25, 2011 at 8:15 am

Let’s pause and unpack this. Bachmann wins the Iowa straw poll — and she’s almost instantly a nonentity. Rick Perry enters the field and is instantly number one but three debates later we’re begging Chris Christie (again) to enter the race. And now Herman Cain beats both “front-runners” and it doesn’t mean a thing.

But the Repub party and the conservative movement are serious people. They are definitely going to win the next Presidential election.

When this so-called-conservative movement is a footnote in the history books I will still be laughing at you guys.
mattb

September 25, 2011 at 9:02 am

Quick correction on my above comments… I shouldn’t have compared this to Iowa in terms of organization.

That doesn’t however contradict the fact that the causcuses skewed heavily towards activists.