Nikki Haley Drops Out
The last challenger to Donald Trump bows to reality.
WSJ (“Nikki Haley to Exit Republican Presidential Race“):
Nikki Haley plans to suspend her Republican presidential primary bid in a speech Wednesday morning, people familiar with her plans told The Wall Street Journal.
The former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador is expected to make an appearance to deliver brief remarks in the Charleston area around 10 a.m. ET. Her decision arrived the day after Super Tuesday, when she won only Vermont among 15 states that held GOP contests.
Haley won’t announce an endorsement Wednesday, the people said. She will encourage Donald Trump, who is close to having the delegates needed to win the GOP nomination, to earn the support of Republican and independent voters who backed her.
She is expected to emphasize that she will continue to advocate for the conservative domestic and foreign policies she supports and caution against some of the dangers, such as isolationism and a lack of fiscal discipline, that she sees coming from Washington.
Haley was the first major candidate to challenge Trump for the nomination and the last to stand down, showing determination even as she came under significant attack by the former president and his supporters.
Her campaign on Monday referenced Margaret Thatcher, the former British prime minister known as the “Iron Lady” who is a role model for Haley, as it tried to motivate its Super Tuesday voters.
As she exits the race, it is hard to know whether Haley is part of the party’s future or a last gasp of more traditional Republicanism that favors a hawkish foreign policy, fiscal discipline and limited government.
The 52-year-old could still have a future in presidential politics, but her sharp criticism of Trump in the final two months of her campaign will likely make that challenging while he still has a hold on the party.
Polls show Haley had strength among suburban women and independents, both key demographics in winning general elections. That is a key reason she often led Trump significantly in hypothetical matchups against President Biden.
Her campaign used such polling to argue she was the safer bet for the party than Trump to take on Biden in November. As her campaign drew to a close, Haley repeatedly argued that the former president wouldn’t win the general election.
While it might make sense for Trump to moderate himself to appeal to Haley supporters and #NeverTrumpers in general, it’s simply not in his nature. And I honestly don’t know what that would even look like at this point. It’s not like he’s an upstart candidate still able to mould public perception.
As to Haley, it’s hard to see a future for her in politics. Even if the GOP were to break out of its MAGA mindset and return to being a traditional conservative party, her fecklessness in trying to run against Trump while simultaneously sucking up to him has done her no favors.
Rather less interesting her dropping out than her win and from what I read, the polling underperformance (ongoing) of Trump undershooting by was much as 10% in the state polling.
This rather suggests that Mr Biden has a play to conversion on the margins in key electoral vote states of free floaters – clearly not huge defection margins, but conversion on the margins of a few percent points is all that is needed, rather than racking up huge over-weight wins in safe Left territories.
I haven’t followed Haley that closely over the years, but she really strikes me as having no core values whatsoever. (I don’t really mean that as that much of a slam, as there are a lot of politicians like that, and who do no real harm.) But I’m curious if anyone who knows more about her disagrees?
My impression of her throughout this campaign is a) she is a master at expressing concern and empathy with everyone without actually saying anything, and b) she still toadies to the racists by making an outrageous statement and then, obviously lying, “sincerely” stating that she never said what she said and it was all a misunderstanding.
All this to say – of course she will eventually endorse Trump.
So in the end, she won DC plus one very blue state in New England, and lost everything else including her home state that begins with the word “South.”
I would have thought more highly of the ghost of George McGovern.
How will Haley’s departure affect Trump’s campaigning? Not at all, other than dropping “Bird brain” from his stump speech. As JJ noted, Trump is what he is…there will be no pivot to the center. Without intending to do so, Haley proved there are not enough center-right Republicans to wrest the party back from the MAGA cultists.
@Charley in Cleveland:
Or that they can’t be bothered to show up and vote. Like the rest of their party, they keep hoping someone else will save them from the nuts. How many are going to be furious that they don’t have a candidate to represent them and thus must vote Trump but didn’t show up to the polls yesterday?
Here’s the thing (theoretical) GOP silent majority: if you are silent, the loudest idiots speak for you. You expected “sanity” to manifest without you doing anything to make it happen. Your options now are Trump, Biden or not voting. Yeah yeah, there’s some 3rd party people but we all know you aren’t gonna pick them. You now have to choose being the guy you hate and know is going to mess it all up, the enemy or doing what you did yesterday: nothing as the disaster slowly creeps forward. Dems and democracy would love it if you voted Biden but we’re realistic. Just do us all a favor and stay home in November, ok?
I’ll be voting for Biden in our Ohio primary and in the general, based on my criteria for leaders: specifically judgement, honesty, statesmanship, and courage.
Regarding Haley, I give her “A” for courage, for taking on Trump. The next test for her will be her decision to endorse or not.
@Charley in Cleveland:
@KM:
In the right hand: six.
In the left hand: a half-dozen.
Depending on whether or how Nikki Haley endorses, she at least deserves commendation for showing Team Blue where and how to triangulate against the kooky Tlaib/DSA left. The newsreel footage of Haley voters explaining they are former Trump voters who will never vote for him again and might back Biden instead — citing Trump’s criming, amorality, border bill betrayal, encouragement of Putin, Hitleresque threats etc. — are campaign gold for Democrats.
So give Nimarata a golf clap, like that offered Mike Pence for not falling into the abyss on Jan 6 despite his wobbly knees.
@Kylopod: That is not important – rather the fact that despite the effective incumbant nature of Trump candidacy and as made analytically clear here, the lock he had, she was pulling 40 odd percent even as Sans Hope which I think was in effect clear to all. Contra the “protest” vote contra Biden. There is indication of different dynamic – the straight-up race was not the actual interest, rather the sounding of the shallow water Trump is speeding his ship through.
While one should not then conclude Biden will win, I believe this should give hope that a properly positioned campaign that focuses a messaging on the combat geogrpaphies and peeling off marginal (and cutting down Trump – or perhaps best, provoking him as this is clearly relatively easy to do) has a real chance despite Biden’s weaknesses.
@DK:
I am….. not good at handing out cookies for basic decency or effort and golf clapping showing up late to the party. I understand that’s not a good position to hold both in terms of political strategy and giving people second chances however it’s getting harder and harder to welcome the prodigals when they deliberately partied as the world burns. At this point it’s a malicious deliberate choice to even consider voting for that man and what he represents. We need everyone we can get to keep the fragile hold we have but it’s galling to have to give props to someone willing to sell out exactly like Trump does but fails at it. Drinking pee is preferable to drinking arsenic but it’s still pee, damnit and if somebody had bothered to make sure they had something potable to drink we wouldn’t be in this mess.
I’m tired of liberals having to fix conservative messes that never should have happened if they just bothered to keep their nuts in line. That meme that goes “The Tolerant Left is down the hall, we’re the F^ck Off and Die Left now leave”? Starting to be more appealing every day. Haley ran to be POTUS for her own personal gain and because she incorrectly assumed the party that couldn’t be bothered to get rid of Trump on the numerous chances they had over the years would, in fact, choose her as the means to be rid of him. The passive aggressive “can’t some else do it?” mentality is going to get him a second term if we can’t get our numbers out. She doesn’t get a clap for trying but I will refrain from making other gestures in deference.
@Lounsbury: I’ve said it before that I think a Biden campaign that focuses solely on his accomplishments will not work. In today’s political environments, negativity has a greater pull on the voters. What does Trump brag about? The economy under his watch; the tax cuts; the wall and immigration. The Biden campaign needs to drill into the American mind that the economy wasn’t so great under Trump (didn’t exceed 2.98% growth with massive deficits), his tax cuts didn’t much flow to most of the American taxpayers (and a massive benefits to Trump corporate interests), and the wall building was pitiful. Going negative will aid Biden more.
The money must have dried up.
I would have bet she was going to stay in and become the alternative when he is eventually indicted.
Which may not be that long given the impending Election Interference/Stormy Daniels case, which is slated to begin jury selection on 3/25.
@KM:
Hmm. I thought a golf clap was a good compromise point between an awards show ovation and the middle finger while Boo-urnsing.
So…maybe instead of cookies + a golf clapping for Haley and Pence, how about those Werther’s or strawberry-foil wrapped candies Grandma passed out + the errant cough from an otherwise silent audience?
@Daryl:
Maybe you mean convicted. He’s already been indicted.
The money from the Koch wing dried up las month. It was redirected to House, Senate, and state races; allegedly not one penny to Lardass. BTW, I’ve this bridge I’ve been meaning to sell.
Anyway, assuming Lardass is convicted in NY before the convention, he will undoubtedly appeal and demand to remain free and unhoused at taxpayer expense until all appeals are exhausted. Betting he will win the election and take revenge on his enemies.
@Scott: I believe you are agreeing with the “Cutting down Trump” part of the comment – regardless indeed I would agree that a Biden démarche that is only selling himself (and the painfully nerd-ish copycat phrase “Bidenonomics”) is not a path to win (although not useless entirely).
Encouraging / baiting Trump to drive his ship into the reefs of abortion, women-suburbanite, even provoking on border as baiting him on blocking as he did… Trump has no self-control (as the disastrous idiocy of his performance in the New York courts showed) and driving down some Trump margin by 3-5% in key geographies (my focus is on the key swing states, not more red-meat appeal to the Left urbanites of the coasts) is likely to make all the difference in this election.
And for God’s sake, keep bloody Trump out of office, I live rather too close to Russian reaches to be desirous of having a Putin dupe in your Presidency.
In another discussion they were taking bets on when Haley would endorse Trump. I didn’t have a date, but I said this:
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Trump will keep her out of the tent unless she very puplicly kisses the ring in the most humiliating way possible. That could happen but if I had to bet it will be a half hearted endorsement focused on Biden, not Trump, and then a fade into the bushes
To be clear, I think she’ll endorse Trump but will focus on how bad Biden is
There is no bottom:
Mark Robinson, the GOP candidate for governor of NC:
1. He once described the movie Black Panther as “created by an agnostic Jew and put to film by [a] satanic marxist”. He then said it “was only created to pull the shekels out of your Schvartze pockets”
2. Robinson told the congregation that gays are equivalent to “what the cows leave behind” as well as “maggots” and “flies.” He added that all of these things serve some purpose in God’s
creation.
3. Robinson shared a quotation attributed to Adolf Hitler, compared the toppling of a Confederate statue to Kristallnacht and frequently minimized the legacy of the Holocaust while decrying the threat of communism, among other inflammatory remarks.
I’m taking bets from people who don’t think he will be endorsed by Jewish republican groups, as well as the Log Cabin Republicans in NC.
For anyone keeping track, the MAGA base already knows that Haley endorsed Lardass.
She’s done no such thin in the real world, of course. But Lardass already claimed she has, and thus in MAGAtland that is the “truth.”
@SenyorDave: And the Dem nominee (Josh Stein) is Jewish. Kind of Doug Mastriano vs. Josh Shapiro all over again? Unfortunately, NC is a redder state than PA, so while the nomination of Robinson does increase the Dems’ likelihood of winning, he’s still got a pretty good shot. And then we end up with Governor Bladolf.
@KM:
I felt this way recently, but a lot of the polling results have caused me to reconsider. I think that a huge part of Trump’s base are simply disinformation victims. They have zero idea what he’s really like or what he has actually done, and have been stuffed full of nonsense about Biden, through deliberate well-orchestrated campaigns that capitalize on self-selection into echo chambers. I have no idea how much of that is reversible between now and November, but the Democrats (and anyone else who cares about democracy) ought to at least try.
@DrDaveT:
I think you can write off the MAGAs who know precisely what a malevolent churl Trump is and admire him for it.
I’m curious about the next primaries — with Haley gone, does Trump start racking up Biden level wins, or does he still have 30% voting against him?
Looking at the Super Tuesday map, I can’t help but think that this is a whole lot of delegates from states that aren’t in play in November. If we have an election process that comes down to 6 states, why are we letting the other 44 have any real say in the nominating process?
It’s cute that Vermont Republicans like Haley, but their votes don’t matter when it counts. And it’s not like Texas is going Blue, so their Republican voters should just be taken for granted. After all, we’re a Republic, not a Democracy.
@CSK: I think the Dems are smart to drive a wedge between MAGAs, i.e. your obnoxious trumper uncle who turns every conversation into a sarcastic diatribe against the demon-rats, and the mainstream Republicans, i.e. people you actually want to spend time with. Trying to get people to see themselves as in opposition to loudmouth jerks is a win. Major win? Of course not. But we only need a half-percent here and another there, and with a few more rummages in the sofa cushions we might find enough to buy a win.
@Gustopher:.. does he still have 30% voting against him?..
The single active candidate on the only sample ballot for the Illinois Republican Presidential Primary election on March 19, 2024 that I can find is Donald Trump. If the names of candidates that have dropped out are still on the ballot when the polls open I guess electors can vote for them however I would be surprised if those votes added up to 30%.
Let’s pause for moment to acknowledge the magnificent profile in courage manifested
by Mitch McConnell today, as he gave his 2024 endorsement to Trump.
Any bets as to when Nikki Haley will endorse Trump?
I believe the over/under is September 1, 2024.
I’m taking the under.
@Gustopher:
You might help by starting a national “draft Nikki Haley” campaign.
@al Ameda:
I think she will try to not endorse Lardass, at least for the next few days. When she sees how it might hurt her chances for 2028, she’ll change her mind.
@Mister Bluster: My guess is that Trump will start hitting 90% victories, but the exit polling shows Haley was doing well with people who weren’t willing to go along with the stolen election lie.
Are those people angry enough with Trump that they will bother to vote in an uncontested primary against him? If so, that’s great news.
Is turnout going to drop by roughly the percentage that we’re voting for Haley? Also good news.
Or will they fall in line. That would be bad news.
I don’t have a good sense as to which of those scenarios is more likely to play out, and by how much. I don’t know that anyone does.
@Gustopher:
I’m going to go half Vorlon* and say the answer to all three questions is “yes.”
Some will continue to vote Haley or other options, some will not bother to vote, some will fall in line.
I wish I could go all Seldon and give probability ranges for each group.
*Full Vorlon would have reduced the whole post to “Yes.”
@Gustopher:..Are those people angry enough with Trump that they will bother to vote in an uncontested primary against him?
Why am I confused? If the primary is uncontested Trump is the only choice on the ballot. How can a vote be cast against him? Maybe all Republican Primary ballots have uncommitted delegates or a write in option. I don’t know.