A Point of Clarity on the Debt Ceiling

I noted some lack of understanding of my position on Trump’s call to eliminate the debt ceiling. I was not engaging in some “Hey, look! Agreement!” post. I was not congratulating Trump for holding the position. The only noteworthy aspect of Trump’s position is that he is the first, in my recollection, Republican president/president-elect to call for the debt ceiling to be abolished I would be more than happy for his broken-clockedness to be exploited.
I also think that some readers may be conflating normal shutdowns over lack of money to run the government and the debt ceiling issue. While these two sometimes converge, they are not the same issue.
I simply think that the debt ceiling itself is a tremendously stupid (and dangerous) feature of American policy and any way we can get rid of it, we should do so. Moreover, I think it is so terrible that even a two-year hiatus would be welcome, even if it, at least in theory, was to Trump’s political advantage.
Keep in mind that to seriously threaten not to raise the debt ceiling is to threaten the full faith and credit of the United States and to threaten both a domestic and international economic crisis in a way that could have truly long-term and possibly irreversible consequences.
To truly threaten to not raise the debt ceiling is to threaten to burn it all down. No serious political party should threaten such a thing and I would note that it has been the Republicans and their more extreme wing that have been willing to do this (see the 2023 debt ceiling crisis). To want to keep the debt ceiling as a leverage point is to behave like an arsonist willing to burn down their own house.
Some tit-for-tat is not worth it.
As a practical political matter, I am not sure that the Democrats could even credibly threaten the debt ceiling, so what’s the point of preserving the option?
The brinksmanship alone in recent years has lead to the US’ bond rating being degraded, which, ironically enough, makes borrowing for the US more expensive.
Note that the debt ceiling is not the main reason for government shutdowns. That is simply because of the inability of congress to pass annual budgets. Those negotiations, with their chances for leverage, would continue to exist even if the debt ceiling issue was taken off the table.
I would hasten to add that the party that is seen as responsible for government shutdowns tends to lose politically with the public. As such, as much as Democratic partisans might want to stick to the Reps, the entire scenario is a loser, ultimately.
Not to mention that all these threats do is leverage hurting people.
At any rate, when you have the chance to take the matches out of the hands of arsonists, you should take it and hence my post.
The problem is that Republicans have repeatedly used the threat of a debt default to get what they want, and have been successful at obtaining it and have been rewarded by the voters for doing so.
The Democrats can’t afford to codependently enable this sort of behavior in the name of “responsibility”, or they just send a message that the Republicans should get even more unreasonable because they only benefit from doing so.
The last 30 years of continuous escalation has largely been the result of constantly protecting the voters from the consequences of behaving irresponsibly.
I am of two minds. Yes, the debt ceiling is ridiculous. IIRC it started in WWI as a routine bureaucratic approval for Treasury to issue the war bonds Congress authorized. Now it’s only purpose is to try to pressure the sober, responsible party, Dems, by GOPs holding a gun to their own heads. [Insert Blazing Saddles reference.] It’s stupid and it should be eliminated. On the other hand, are Dems obliged to go around the yard removing rakes GOPs themselves left there for Trump. It may serve to embarrass Trump and slow down his tax cuts and spending.
I’d support eliminating the debt ceiling entirely, and imposing stringent conditions for repealing the law that eliminates it. I oppose suspending it only for a certain pretend president (Xlon’s the Real President*).
Ideally the constitution should be amended to prevent a recurrence. But that’s unlikely to ever happen. Not when one side despises it when it applies to them and embraces it when it doesn’t.
*No, really. the felon’s claim to power is his celebrity, wealth, willingness to bully people on his side, and persecute his enemies. Xlon Cisgender God Mars etc. has him beat on all counts. What? should a formality like a general election with millions of votes determine something this important? Did we lose a war or something?
@Stormy Dragon:
Exactly. And thing is, it’s not Democrats’ responsibility at all atm. We the People chose to elect Republicans to control the White House, Senate, House, and Supreme Court. So as the party with total power, Republicans will have total responsibility to get done what President Musk and Vice-President Trump want done.
Thus, talk of Democratic tit-for-tat or Democratic threats is nonsensically moot. Republicans have the agency here, as they will be in complete charge under the MAGA regime that (allegedly) wants to nix the debt ceiling.
Now, if Republicans find themselves too divided, incompetent, and chaotic to act — in need of Democratic votes — then it is perfectly rational, reasonable, and fair for Dems to make asks in exchange for votes — starting with a permanent, not temporary, debt ceiling kill.
If Republicans remain unwilling to negotiate with Democrats, and the people are hurt by ensuing debt default chaos, that is the people’s own fault. That is reaping what we have sown by irresponsibly voting in Republicans, touching the stove yet again. Elections have consequences.
Next time Democrats hold the cards, we should hold them to the same standard while demanding Dems ax the debt ceiling. If it remains.
Agree. The debt ceiling has been a bludgeon to empower the GOP, who conveniently forget that every Republican President in the last sixty years has increased the deficit.
The current bill doesn’t raise the salaries of Congress and also does not renew the spending for childhood cancer research. It doesn’t impede technology investments in China. I guess that Musk has calculated that the odds of brain tumors in his kids are lower than the benefits of Tesla manufacturing in China.
@Stormy Dragon: Indeed. And the argument is always that “we” shouldn’t have to be punished for “their” misdeeds. Where does it end?
The debt ceiling all makes perfect sense once you understand we live in the dumbest of all possible timelines.
Can I agree that the debt ceiling is that terrible, but disagree about the political advantage to Republicans (including but not exclusive to Trump) being only theoretical?
The 2 year hiatus is so blatantly aligned with the Republican’s ensured trifecta that it is certain that the GOP will take advantage of it for something expensive that Trump wants really badly without Pay As You Go. The only thing theoretical is how much it will be used and at what cost.
My sense is that even a suspension of the debt ceiling in these circumstances would be detrimental to the overall objective of removing the debt ceiling permanently. If what it takes to get the debt ceiling removed is taking the government hostage with a shutdown threat, then you’ve proven that all you need to bring it back is taking the government hostage again.
ETA: Or what @DK said.
I think the Debt ceiling nonsense has gone on so long most people don’t really understand what it is about: It enables Congress critters to vote for expensive goodies and giveaways, but then late vote to prevent government from going into debt to pay for what they allocated. In other words, it’s a way for them to get out of doing their prime job: pass a budget for the United States and raise funds to ensure that budget can be met.
If Congress did their job with respect to the budget, the idea of a separate debt ceiling vote would be null and void.
So, to be clear: many of you want the Democrats to threaten the economy in a game of chicken with the Republicans and actually think that the Dems are willing to drive off the cliff the same way the Freedom Caucus is?
And we think this is a worthwhile game of tit-for-tat?
In theory I agree with Doc Taylor, but… why give them anything? Make them fight to raise the debt ceiling.
Sure, everyone knows the Democrats will roll over in the end, but make them at least pretend to fight for it. The more time they spend on raising the debt ceiling, the less time they have to do harmful things. Legislative days are a limited resource — you can’t borrow them from China.
They like to compare the federal budget to the household budget, but in my house, we pay our bills monthly. That’s probably too many chances for things to go wrong. How about quarterly?
@Steven L. Taylor: Yes
The alternative is that the Republicans can continue to use it knowing that it will never be used against them
@Steven L. Taylor: Years ago, my mom asked me if my aunt should give an ultimatum to my uncle about some issues. I suggested that the reason that ultimata work is because the person making them is willing to accept either outcome.
The Republicans are willing to rule over the charred remnants of the country. If the commentariat is willing to also, let the good times roll.
@just nutha:
An ultimatum can also be a bluff. It works if the other side does not dare to call it.
What I propose is we raise the GQP’s bluff. They propose eliminating the debt ceiling for two years, so the Democrats should propose to eliminate it forever.
Republicans:“Hey idiots, come over here, we’ve got something you’re going to like.”
Democrats: “Huh, what?”
Republicans: “Look, you want the Debt Ceiling raised, right?”
Democrats: “Well, yeah of course.”
Republicans: “So do we, and we want Biden to get credit for it, okay?
Seems only fair, right?”
Democrats: Well, ummm, yes.
Republicans: “Great!
See we’ve got a deal, you vote in increase the Debt Ceiling, then with your support we’ll get done the things we need to do, and finally we’ll ‘readjust’ the Debt Ceiling again, so that President Musk gets the credit. Win/win! Deal?”
Democrats: “I don’t feel good about this, but … ”
Republicans: “It’s gonna be great, trust us, gonna be great.”
@Steven L. Taylor: Um, no.
If we’re being clear, in this last game of tit-for-tat, the full faith and credit of the US Treasury (via not raising the debt ceiling) was not the hostage being held. Threat of a government shutdown was the ploy this time. There was a bipartisan CR that would have kept the government running until the GOP trifecta was in charge and Musk/Trump blew it up. A hiatus in the debt ceiling, rigged to only benefit the GOP trifecta, was dangled as bait to get the new Musk/Trump CR to pass with bipartisan support. The Dems didn’t bite and I am okay with that.
Because they could point to the original CR and to Musk’s sabotage of same, the Democrats accurately understood that the GOP would take the blame for a shutdown going into Trump’s term and were confident that even Musk/Trump/the Republican establishment could see not to step on that landmine. All Democrats voted for the version of the CR with the fake debt ceiling hiatus removed.
What you would like to see – permanent removal of the dangerous debt ceiling as political leverage – was never on the table. It would not have been worthwhile for the Democrats to give in to Trump’s disingenuous demand on the chance this preferred option might/maybe/would not likely materialize some time in the next two years.
@Kathy: Yes, you can try to bluff with an ultimatum, but you still have to be willing to either 1) accept either outcome or 2) back down. Do you think the GOP is bluffing? What does history tell you?
The first manager I worked for taught me to always choose else when presented with an “or else.” Then again, I’m also content to rule the smouldering rubble of the nation. In the past, this has been a reason to decline voting for cracker. Maybe the times have changed.
@Steven L. Taylor:
No. We said the question is a loaded red herring, as there is no Democratic threat and no tit-for-tat at all: voters wanted Republicans — not Democrats — in charge.
Democrats cannot drive us off the cliff, as Republicans will be the ones behind the steering wheel (White House), riding shotgun (Supreme Court), and in backseat (Congress) — as difficult as it is for some to stop acting like only Democrats have power, agency, duty, or responsibility.
If they turn out to be terrible drivers and want Democrats to take their wheel, it is their job to persuade Dems to do so.
Don’t recall Nancy Pelosi having problems avoiding the cliff. But Republicans said they were better drivers, that they deserved control because something something trans something something egg prices. They demanded voters kick Democrats out of the car. We did. So it’s time for Republicans to do their jobs.
If they are too incompetent, and if they fail to get Democrats in the car to take over, that is the fault of Republicans and the plurality that voted for them. Makes no sense for “the working class” to get what they voted for then cry about it.
@Kathy:
This, except Dems really don’t need to propose anything. Republicans will have the most votes in the Senate and House, the president’s signature, and a MAGA Court on deck to rubber stump.
Republicans can and should pass whatever debt ceiling proposal they want. Having campaigned for and gotten total control, it’s their responsibility.
If Republicans find they can’t get it done, then they can ask Democrats for votes. And then Dems have not just the right but an ethical duty to require a bill eliminating the debt ceiling forever and entirely.
Till then, Democrats don’t need to do anything but watch President Musk, First Lady Trump, and Mike Johnson embarrass themselves with their incompetent intra-party clownery. Like they did this week before running back to Dems for safety.
@Scott F.:
I get that.
But that isn’t what many of the commenters are arguing about whether they fully understand it or not (I still think a lot of folks are conflating the debt ceiling issue with the normal CR debates).
@DK:
When it comes to what many commenters seem to want, it would require tit-for-tat on the debt ceiling.
For example: if the argument is not to extend the debt ceiling for two years because it would somehow hamper the Dems playing chicken is arguing for tit-for-tat.
I am arguing here, and in other posts for one specific thing: taking the debt ceiling off the table. I prefer permanently, but would settle for as lengthy a punt as can be gotten. Other issues of debate over CRs and whatnot are other matters.
Again: either a lot of people are misunderstanding my point or they are conflating differing issues and/or the do want the Dems to play chicken with the debt ceiling.
I think, too, that people are ignoring that with the GOP margins being what they are, it is entirely possible for the Freedom Caucus (or just a handful of MAGA Republicans) to try and hold the debt ceiling hostage and force Dems to be in the position of either allowing a default or having to vote with the less-insane Reps for a less than palatable package to forestall such an outcome.
Sometimes it is just best to lock the gun away for as long as possible, even if you can’t permanently get rid of it,.
One, the entire reason Trump wants the debt ceiling eliminated is because his own tax cuts from the first term are expiring and obviously passing any new ones blows a giant hole in the deficit.
Democrats should 110% make him defend that.
Two, the number of R’s who have resigned in the House to be a part of Trump’s cabinet [or to attempt to avoid the reveal of the Gaetz ethics] is actually greater than the R margin. Yes, they are that stupid. So if the D’s can keep their ducks in a row, it’s Speaker Jeffries because House Speaker is a simple majority vote. Special Elections for all but Gaetz haven’t even been scheduled yet – and the Gaetz special election is of course on April Fools Day with seating sometime in June.. so we should have nearly 6 months of D majority in the House.. And during these initial 6 months of D House majority, the initial budget discussions will occur.
Interesting times.