A Quick Thought or Two on MOUs
Understanding the understanding (kind of).
While I agree with the general notion that a lousy “deal” (scare quotes oh so very intentional) at this stage of this Iranian misventure is better than maintaining the status quo, I am finding the notion that we are about to sign a memorandum of understanding, an MOU, to be so utterly absurd.
As was correctly quipped in this morning’s open forum, this is not a real plan; it is the concept of a plan.
An MOU is just a non-binding (let that sink in) agreement to agree to talk more later about something. This is no formal peace deal.
Ever since the notion that this little excursion would end with an MOU, I have been having flashbacks to when I worked for a boss who loved him some MOUs. A possible partnership with another institution? Let’s make sure we get an MOU! A potential private partner? Let’s do an MOU!
Invariably, a very vague document to agree, as stated above, to talk some more later, was signed. If at all possible, there was a signing ceremony with a press release. And sometimes local press would attend. It was very exciting, dontcha know. Perhaps I became too cynical for my own good, but it often felt as if the photo for the press release was more important than the contents of the documents being signed (and the road to Hell was paved with unrealized MOU plans of action…).
Granting very much that the stakes of what is happening with Iran are far greater than a potential transfer agreement with a random community college, the process, optics, and skill of the participants here feel all too familiar.
One thing is certainly the same: the main goal here is to have a press event to demonstrate that yes, they are doing something.
There is a real upside, of course, with the Iran MOU, at least in the short term, which is return (hopefully) to some version of the status quo ante. This is important for the global economy, and I guess we will just have to pretend like all the death, destruction, and expenditures were worth it, even as it quite clearly was not.
Here’s one thing I am certain of: a superpower, or even a smaller power, does not launch a war with the goal of signing an MOU. It is absurd, but it is the kind of thing that one might expect from a president who is basically a real estate developer and reality TV star, as guided by a coterie of unqualified sycophants as advisors.
The actual MOU has not yet been released, but the leaked details, if accurate, amount to US capitulation and failure. I do not see a single actual US national security aim being met (killing an 86-year-old leader doesn’t count if the regime remains in power).
The absurdity of all of this is just emphasized by the amazing coincidence of this being announced on Trump’s birthday, just so as to emphasize the reality TV/kayfabe of it all. I half expected the agreement to be signed via DocuSign over the weekend so that Trump could tout that the whole thing was resolved on his special day.
Of the stomach-churning elements of this story is that there are many millions of Americans who will think that a real deal of consequence was reached, and that the US won. After all, that is what the President of the United States is going to tell them.
These are ridiculous times whose consequences we will all be living with for some time to come.
I will sit here patiently waiting for someone, anyone, to force Fatso to confront his failure.
I’ll be waiting forever.
There are aspects of international relations where clarity is essential. Are we at war? Has the nation committed to the war, through an official declaration? Who is the enemy? Who are our allies? What are our objectives?
For weeks, we have had murky, conflicting, or non-existent answers to these questions.
Has the war ended? If so, what are the terms? And what are the costs of breaking the agreement? Who does the enforcement?
A memorandum of understanding answers none of these questions.
I honestly never thought I’d see a worse example of muddying all these treacherous waters than the Vietnam War. And yet, here we are. Trump excels at being the worst at everything.
This is another drip, drip, drip toward walking away from a war, he started, got bored with and is getting mired in. There may be some further agreement in 60 days and there may only be an agreement to talk for another 60 days (rinse and repeat) with the goal of forgetting this ever happened.
Kudos Dr. T.! That essay says it all, and I particularly envy this spot-on observation:
What Joe said. I am still waking up this morning and have no desire to read the MOU in detail, but a quick googling seems to indicate that supposedly the U.S. blockade of the area around the SOH will end and I am guessing that there is nothing in the agreement that codifies that Iran will not collect a “toll” to navigate the SOH but this will no longer be an area of focus as far as President Trump is concerned.
I suspect that the new normal will be that many ships and their backers will now pay what I presume will be a reduced “toll” to freely navigate the strait. Again, I could be wrong after I read the document.
It does sound like Israel refused to put the brakes on their constant bombing campaigns against Lebanon, and anyone else in the region who catches of ire of Bibi N, but again…I think Trump wants to move on and not concentrate on the shenanigans being committed by Israel.
Okay, I have been reading a bit more on this MOU, it does supposedly have Iran agreeing to stop with the tolls to navigate the SOH, but if no one decides to pay attention in the near future I suspect the tolls paid to Iran will be more like ships slipping some cash to Iran under the table so everything is on the hush hush and it makes it easy for folks to turn the other way when money is being exchanged between Iran other nations.
In theory, Israel will pause some of their military actions in the region. Perhaps until they can get away with starting things back up again once they notice our President is no longer paying so much attention to the region, who knows.
Iran agreed to not pursue a bomb (which while they technically were not pursuing the bomb pre-war, they did have the materials available to build a handful of bombs, but up until Trump and Bibi decided to rampage through the region like a bull in a China shop and wreck tons of things in the region it seemed like this was not something Israel or the U.S. needed to freak out about).
I might be revealing that I am surprisingly super naive about this but I do not get the vibe that this will help the GOP in the Midterm Elections. The Stock Market might appreciate a pause in the war, but otherwise not much has really changed for folks whose lives have been made even more difficult than they need to be due to the actions of our President.
President Trump has very loudly declared that he does not care about the average Joe’s misery being experienced so the bloom is off that rose (not quite sure that is the right saying to make my point, but anyway) and I think a lot of folks have seen how truely useless the GOP has been in making their lives better and want change in the make-up of Congress.
This whole mess is just so irritating. The bottom line is that the US’s back is up against a wall because we’re reaching the end of available oil reserves to tap. When that happens, Katy bar the door–things are going to get BAD. Iran knows this.
And yet, we have JD Vance on television sort of kind of not exactly fudging the details on the MOU…I mean REALLY. This whole thing could go t*ts up in a flash and it’s NOT EVEN A REAL DEAL YET.
Boy howdy I’ll bet the G7 is going to get interesting.
The Korean armistice, a sort of MOU with a cease-fire, has held for 70 years. If this MOU lasts, I won’t quibble about the details. Unfortunately, it’s hard to expect it to hold. Israel will bomb somebody in response to some real or made-up attack.
Also, Iran has apparently agreed not to make nuclear weapons. The Trump killed JCPOA aside, Iran has signed the non-proliferation treaty. So Trump’s war has secured an agreement* to what they’d already agreed to.
_____
* Mindful of Steven’s point that an MOU is really an agreement to talk about agreeing to what they’ve already agreed to.
@Jen:
Chances are Bibi will spoil everything by continuing to destroy southern Lebanon, because he has to keep out of prison somehow.
Essentially the situation is back to where it was in February. The changes are:
1) An 86 year old dying Mullah is dead.
2) Iran asserted control of Hormuz
3) Oil prices rose, causing inflation and shortages
4) A lot of people, including dozens of girls at a school, are dead.
It wasn’t even a Ttrumpic victory, but a Trumpic quagmire.
Pretty much El Taco turned the world upside down for no gain and some important loss. He can’t get a Nobel Prize fast enough, eh?
@inhumans99:
Iran can easily give up the “tolls” if the US is actually going to immediately release $12B in Iranian assets, the next $12B in assets fairly quickly, and the Arab states start paying toward the $300B reconstruction total. (What, you thought Congress would authorize paying Iran that sort of money? That Trump would attempt to divert it from somewhere else?)
Everyone is talking about Israel not signing the MOU. The Arab Gulf states are on the hook for a lot and are not signing it either. Most of the leaked lists require the US to “remove its forces” from the region. If that were to happen at any sort of real scale, a lot of the missile shield the Arab states have been hiding under goes away.
@Michael Cain:
Through years of war and occupation in Iraq, civil war in Syria, and war in Gaza, the Gulf states were in a very stable, peaceful position. They kept pumping oil, plus diversifying their economies, launching global airlines to connect Europe and the Americas to Asia, and even hosted a FIFA snoozefest in a small country.
El Taco spoiled all that in record time.
And all for no gain.
@Jen: Boy howdy I’ll bet the G7 is going to get interesting. I truly hope the leaders at the G7 don’t even get close to fawning on trump. In fact I hope he’s treated much as Ivanka was at the 2017 G20 session in Hamburg. I hope Macron’s menu for his scheduled dinner with trump at the Versailles is Corbeau rôti aux herbes amères (I apologize for my high school French.)
@gVOR10: Very much agree. “MOU” means nothing, all that counts is what happens whatever the label. It has already been established that the US and Israel do not honor treaties and do their best to assassinate the negotiators… truly outlaw nations.
My bet is that Rubio’s first comment (which he modified when the outrage hit) that what happened was that the IDF had an intel coup of knowing that nearly all of Iran’s leaders would be in one room so the opportunity to hit them all at once could not be passed up, and the US was joining to help was the correct one. There are somethings the USAF can do better than the IDF air force. We have a lot more tankers for long distance ops.
The old joke, “The operation was a success but the patient died” applies. They got them all but turned out Iran had anticipated that scenario and had procedures in place for that eventuality. They were ready and did not fall apart.
In a certain way it may be fortunate, in this matter, that Trump is utterly shameless. That enables him to back out of a bad situation as if it was a bad script for his reality TV show, knowing he can gaslight his followers into believing anything and can “flood the zone” at will, which usually gets the pundits asking the wrong questions. We hung around for 20 years in Afghanistan trying to wring something genuinely honorable and worthwhile out of that.
@Mr. Prosser: I hope it’s steak tartare. (Trump rather famously likes everything cooked to within an inch of being shoe leather.)
I do appreciate the appropriateness of your suggestion, perhaps as the main course? 😀
Israelis denounce Trump’s Iran deal (WaPo)
Hilarious! What I wouldn’t give to read the group chat with the Bidens, Obamas, Clintons, Kerrys, and Sullivans this morning. Schaudenfruede overload.
So Netanyahu/Ben-Gvir/Smotrich et al tied Israel to the most unpopular and incompetent president in US history, kneecaped Biden and Harris, undermined Obama, got Trump and Republicans to oppose and rip up Hillary and Kerry’s far superior JCPOA, largely ruptured Israel’s relationship with the preferred party of American Jews, largely severed Israel’s relationship with Europe, and — ominously — destroyed Israel’s reputation with a supermajority of the under-40 human population globally.
And for what? To lose the Carlson/Rogan/Massie right anyway, have Trump and Vance throw Netanyahu’s government under the bus, and end up with an Iran that’s more powerful, more radical, with emerging 2nd power status.
Not the deadliest or most horrifying of Bibi’s many misadventures — at least short term — but among the most consequential.
@DK:
But the GOP is the party of the Christian Right/Christian Zionists – much more numerous than American Jews. That’s just logical.
In any case, Bibi always more comfortable with right wing people.
I am not sure how the “reconstruction fund” is supposed to work. What exactly would be the role of the US government in facilitating this? Building a website? Sending them a bunch of Trumpcoin?
Steve
@charontwo:
There’s a certain shallow, surface-level, short-term logic to it. But it sort of falls apart under the glare of strategic logic and moral clarity, wherein Likud and the Israeli right might’ve noticed numbers alone do not equal sound policy, and that most American Jews who vote are Democratic voters for a reason: Christian nationalists don’t really give a damn about anybody but Aryans — and on top of that, most rightwing domestic and foreign policies put in practice are both immoral and a proven loser. As we apparently keep need to keep learning again and again, since Americans are too stupid not to keep electing the party that kills jobs, guts the safety net, starts dumb wars, and/or destabilizes the economy with tax cuts for oligarchs EVERY TIME they get control.
Southern whites outnumbered blacks, but that still couldn’t make Jim Crow smart, ethical, or a socioeconomic winner.
I’ll admit I entered adulthood as a (classically liberal, McCain-voting) Republican, but it didn’t take very long to wake up and face the reality that the modern conservative platform does not work in real life and that the party is dominated by racist, fascist trash. We have people that have been allied with the evangelical right and voting Republican for decades and still are. Still trying to force a round peg into a square hole. Yikes.
Stupid is as stupid does. I think Benjamin Netanyahu is a very stupid man. But stupidity will get you elected in America and Israel, because people want leaders who are relatable (gag), and as Bibi’s boy Trump admits “Smart people don’t like me” and “We won with poorly educated, I love the poorly educated.”
Or, as Adlai Stevenson quppied when told he had the vote of every thinking man, “Thanks. But we need a majority.”
@DK:
Sarcasm, Bibi logic, not my logic. Bibi is very right wing himself, people tend to side with “us” not “them.” IIRC, the GOP was inviting Bibi to address Congressional Republicans predating Trump.
Israelis aren’t stupid, across the political spectrum they all know this. But they like the material support they get from Christian Zionists.
I think he is probably pretty smart. Smart people can be good at convincing themselves to believe very stupid things.
As for Trump, he is notoriously stupid, always has been. I believe his brain is now in addition more degraded by dementia than most people recognize.
Weeks ago I described the trap Trump had made for himself: He couldn’t keep the war going because the Arab states wouldn’t let him, he couldn’t make peace because Netanyahu wouldn’t let him, and if he tried to just walk away his base would crucify him.
He seems to have achieved the astonishing feat of provoking Israel into sabotaging his efforts to make peace and infuriating his base by effectively walking away. No rational person thinks America will resume the war, no matter what happens or doesn’t happen over the next 60 days. And the Iranians are mostly rational people.
That means any Iranian concessions are going to have to be made in return for concessions by America, and every concession by America is going to trigger howls of anger from Israel and the MAGA faithful.
Blame Vance for the mess and endorse Rubio in 2028 looks a good off-ramp.
@Ken_L:
By congratulating Vance, as he has already done, thus putting responsibility on Vance. He will be playing Rubio and Vance off against each other.
I don’t think he endorses Rubio, I think he sabotages them both.
@Jen:
Noted this AM that Vance has said that millions of barrels of oil have already transited Hormuz in the last few days.
However AIS and satellite surveillance report that no tankers have passed in the last 36 hours, so: is Vance lying, or are his briefers lying to him. What a way to run a country !
@charontwo:
Apparently so. To wit, per Haaretz:
For years, Netanyahu propped up Hamas. Now it’s blown up in our faces (The Times of Israel)
The not-so-secret history of Netanyahu’s support for Hamas (972)
Buying Quiet’: Inside the Israeli Plan That Propped Up Hamas (The New York Times)
The two-state solution is well and truly dead (if not quite yet buried) so it worked I guess, at the expense of thousands of dead Israelis, tens of thousands of dead Palestinians, and Israel’s global relationships and reputation in tatters. Although we still don’t know Bibi’s crackerjack plan on what to actually do with millions of Palestinians in the soon-to-be-annexed Gaza and West Bank.
I’d just like to know how many epic fails and historically disastrously unforced errors one gets before it’s reasonable to assume one actually is an idiot. What good is intelligence if only used for dumbassery, with little to no operative difference in outcomes.
@charontwo:
Cue the compromise candidate who promises to retain Trump in the White House as “President Emeritus”, mentoring his humble replacement while Trump continues to oversee all important government business. I’ve always thought that’s the most likely way for him to get a de facto third term. I’m sure there’d be no shortage of candidates willing to make the humiliating commitment knowing there’s a good chance Trump wouldn’t hang around for more than another year or two (assuming he even makes it to November 20208).
@Ken_L:
Don Jr.