Peace in Our Time?
Right back where your daddy was.
WaPo (“U.S., Iran reach a deal to end fighting, both sides say“):
The United States and Iran have reached a limited deal to end months of fighting, according to President Donald Trump, a top Iranian diplomat and the leader of Pakistan, which has been mediating between the two sides.
“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!” Trump said Sunday on Truth Social, adding that he had agreed to end the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports in exchange for Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a continued halt to fighting.
The two sides plan to keep discussing the limits to Iran’s nuclear program that Trump has sought. They’re scheduled to sign the agreement on Friday. The timing of the announcement on Sunday allowed Trump to celebrate the deal on his 80th birthday.
On Monday, the price of oil, which had soared well over $100 per barrel during the war, fell sharply in response to news of the deal, to about $83. Meanwhile stock markets in Asia rose sharply, with major indexes in Japan and Korea climbing about 5 percent. Stock indexes in Europe were moderately higher.
Some world leaders hailed the announcement of a peace deal as a potential turning point, but Israeli officials and citizens denounced it.
U.S. officials said the deal was in jeopardy earlier Sunday after Israel launched an air strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon’s capital. As Iran prepared a retaliatory strike, Trump publicly rebuked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for endangering the talks.
“After the Israelis struck Beirut, we were very worried,” Vice President JD Vance said in an interview with Fox News after the deal was announced. “We saw a lot of evidence that the Iranians were going to launch a large number of missiles at the Israelis.”
During what Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said were more than 14 hours of talks on Sunday, the Iranians ultimately stood down. They said the U.S. had made last-minute concessions in return, including speeding up the end of the naval blockade.
“The naval blockade against Iran will end immediately and completely,” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said in a statement, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on social media that both sides “have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” and that an official signing ceremony will be on Friday in Switzerland. Mediators will hold a series of meetings this week, Sharif said.
The deal appeared to leave significant areas of disagreement unresolved and subject to further negotiations, especially Iran’s nuclear program and the wide range of U.S. sanctions that have been imposed on Tehran. Gharibabadi said his government expected to discuss a full lifting of U.S. sanctions in talks he said would take place over the next 60 days, according to IRNA, a state-supported news agency.
AP (“Iran war and Trump orders a stop to the US naval blockade“):
The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement early Monday to open the Strait of Hormuz and further extend a shaky ceasefire in the Iran war, potentially allowing desperately needed oil and natural gas to reach the global market.
Details of the deal were not immediately released and Iran signaled implementation would not start until the signing, which key mediator Pakistan said would occur Friday in Switzerland. It could provide a way to end a war that killed thousands across the Middle East, including the top leaders of Iran’s theocracy, and sparked a historic energy crisis.
[…]
Meanwhile, the deal gives just 60 days to resolve what to do about Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and its atomic program. That took years to resolve in Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from that accord in his first term, setting the stage for the tensions that culminated in the war.
“Congratulations to all!” Trump wrote on social media as he celebrated his 80th birthday Sunday with a UFC cage match fight at the White House.
He added, “I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade,” which was imposed in retaliation for Iran’s grip on the crucial waterway.
He soon hedged, however, saying the strait wouldn’t open until Friday’s signing.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, confirmed the agreement on state television but said Iran would not start implementing it until it was signed Friday. He said the deal followed talks with Qatar, another mediator.
[…]
It was not clear who from Iran would sign the deal on Friday. U.S. Vice President JD Vance told Fox News the White House was still figuring out who would attend: “I certainly plan to be there, but it’s possible the president himself could be there.”
But concern among Republicans in the U.S. already could be seen. They included U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who described Vance as “the architect of the deal.”
“I am somewhat concerned that Iran’s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming,” Graham wrote online.
U.S. Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Congress would exercise oversight on any accord with Iran.
“We have seen time and again: War cannot change the Iranian regime,” he said.
[…]
The first strike of the war killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Khamenei’s son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is now supreme leader. He has not been seen in the public since the war began, but his approval was needed for Iran to sign off on the deal.
There was apparent friction inside Iran in the hours before the announcement, as the government warned that division at home over the deal weakened its negotiating position.
The deal likely returns the region to a status that existed before the war, but with Iran having proven its ability to disrupt shipping in the strait. The waterway is crucial to significant shipments of oil, natural gas and related products like fertilizer, and its effective closure rocked the global economy.
Even with a deal, it will take months for oil and gas supplies to flow freely enough for the world’s needs to be met because shipping and insurance companies want to be confident the agreement will last, energy experts said.
Tehran also still has a ballistic missile arsenal and enough highly enriched uranium to build several nuclear weapons, should it choose to pursue them.
Iran has long maintained its nuclear program is peaceful and has not publicly committed to giving up the enriched uranium, which is believed to be buried under three nuclear sites that were badly damaged by U.S. strikes last year.
The U.S. has sought the removal of the enriched uranium from Iran as part of a deal. Russia has offered to take it. But Iran insists it wants to keep the uranium.
The Southern rock band Blackberry Smoke had a song called “One Horse Town” on their 2012 album The Whippoorwill.
The opening stanza captures the essence of rural existence:
In the tiny town where I come from
You grew up doing what your daddy does
And you don’t ask questions, you do it just because
You don’t climb too high or dream too much
With a whole lot of work and a little bit of luck
You can wind up right back where your daddy was
Alas, it also captures the nature of the war effort. We’re pretty much at status quo ante, if not considerably worse off.
The key tenets of the deal, as described:
- Iran will allow free passage in the Strait of Hormuz
- The US Navy is not blockading the Strait.
- Negotiations on the status of Iran’s nuclear program will resume, with each side having mutually exclusive goals
That’s exactly where things stood before the war.
Some things have changed as a result of the war.
Politically:
- The 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, several of his family members, and a good number of the senior leadership are dead
- They have been replaced by 56-year-old Ayatollah Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, whose health and whereabouts are unknown to us, and a greatly empowered Islamic Republic Guard Corps.
That’s almost certainly a worsening of our position. The elder Khamenei was believed to be in poor health, and the transition plan was thought to be unclear. He’s been replaced by a man 30 years younger, likely more radical to begin with, whose father, mother, wife, and other family members we murdered.
Militarily:
- The regular Iranian army and navy (the Artesh) are believed to have been severely degraded early in the conflict.
- The IRGC has proven more than a capable backup in terms of their ability to shut down the Strait and conduct drone warfare.
- The United States arsenal of exquisite weapons, notably air defense interceptors and Tomahawk missiles, is considerably degraded.
That’s, at best, a wash.
And, as noted in the news reports, Iran has demonstrated that it can easily close the Strait and inflict severe pain on the global economy any time it chooses. Some countries have already pursued alternate routes to get their oil to market. Presumably, that diversification will continue.
What “open” means remains to be seen, as it will be by Iran’s version of “open.”
“Open” appears to mean open under Iranian management, possibly jointly with Oman.
Opinion of Tom Nichols of the Atlantic:
Trump Celebrates While America Capitulates
Your list of tenets omits the financial stuff, lifting of sanctions, unfreezing in stages $24B of Iranian blocked assets plus an investment fund for Iranian reconstruction.
ETA: So Iran has money to buy more inputs for rebuilding/expanding its inventory of missiles, drones etc.
Seems like an agreement to make an agreement – “a concept of a plan.” A lesser JCPOA at the cost of thousands of lives, billions of dollars, and another, bigger, layer of chaos added to the disruption of the world economy caused by Trump’s illegal tariffs.
@Scott:
From Tom Nichols:
It is not just Bibi and his right wing allies, from what I am reading the entire Israeli population is angry about what they regard as a shit deal.
@Scott: @charontwo: The problem is that it’s not clear what the alternative was at this juncture. A shitty deal that got us close to status quo ante has seemed like the best possible outcome for weeks now.
@charontwo: Yes.
@James Joyner:
The alternative would be more of what UAE reportedly did – the various GCC states paying Iran off (i.e., acknowledging the protection racket) to get accommodations from Iran.
But now, with Iran managing the “open” Strait, the protection racket might still develop.
Another exercise in can kicking. The felon got what he wanted the strait open and Iran really gave up little or nothing beyond the damage the country has already absorbed.
As far as Israel is concerned, tough shit, the felon finally realized that Bibi played him like a drum and he resents it and that Rubio and those who cautioned against joining in the bombing were right all along.
Going forward the relationship between the US and Israel will be substantially changed. In the short term, the felon will view Israel with a jaundiced eye. As far as 2028 and beyond, if the next prez is a Dem, Israel will likely be held at arm’s length and if a R is elected, they may see themselves out in the cold also. After witnessing the last few months, it’s hard to believe that Vance will have warm fuzzies for them. If it’s Rubio or someone from what is left of the non-MAGAt R party, they might be more supportive, but R’s have not always been great backers of Israel, the policies of both Reagan and GHW Bush were not too close to what Israel wanted.
I was curious as to how FOX would spin this. They gave it a good try, but based on comments, even the MAGA see this for what it is.
“I went to war with Iran and all I got was an energy crisis.”
What’s the over/under on whether Iran fires a missile at Israel then waits a bit and fires one at the UAE? Can Bibi be restrained?
The Iranians have taken the measure of Cadet Bonespurs. There’s media tough, and then there’s real world tough. Trump’s a pussy and the all hard boys know it. Don’t drop the soap in the shower, Donny.