An Unfavorable Election
Trump is less unpopular than ever.
In the discussion thread of this morning’s “Vibe Check” post, @Kylopod succinctly expresses a sentiment I see from others in the discussion: “Hillary was staggeringly unpopular, something which is very much not the case for Harris.” Alas, strange though it may be, that’s simply not the case.
As Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones noted a week ago,
About half of U.S. adults rate Donald Trump and Kamala Harris positively on a 10-point favorability scale. This puts them on the lower end of what Gallup has measured using this rating scale for presidential nominees dating back to 1956. Trump’s current rating is similar to what he received in 2020 but significantly better than his 36% positive score in 2016, which is the record low.
Put in graphic form, it’s rather stunning:
To be sure, this is mostly a reflection of our toxic levels of polarization along party lines. With the notable exception of Barry Goldwater, whose 1964 blowout loss was historic, almost all of the most unpopular major party nominees have come in the most recent cycles. As recently as 2012, losing candidate Mitt Romney was 12 points above water. In 1992, George H.W. Bush, who lost big as an incumbent President, was 19 points above water. And, in 1980, Jimmy Carter, who lost 44 states as an incumbent President, was 36 points above water. Times have changed.
Still, it’s noteworthy that Harris’s 50 point unfavorability is essentially the same as Clinton’s 52; indeed, it’s within the margin of sampling error. It’s even more noteworthy that Trump’s current unfavorables are much lower than in 2016 and slightly lower (although, again, within the margins of error) than in 2020.
Indeed, while Trump was viewed considerably more unfavorably than Clinton (nine points is well outside the margin of error) he’s actually less unpopular (albeit within the margin of error) than Harris. And, not that anyone here needs reminding, he won in 2016.
Can I explain this? No, I can not.
Arnold Schwarzenegger has announced that he’s voting for Harris-Walz.
@CSK: Whew! Thank goodness, now she’s got California in the bag. Thank you, Governator.
I genuinely do not understand your obsession with polls, James. It must be clear by now that you cannot reduce everything to bare numbers going back to Eisenhower. People’s attitudes to politics and government have changed over 70 years, and to the extent polls do anything really informative, they’re snapshots of a particular moment in time.
@Not the IT Dept.: Polling is the only real metric we have—and, certainly, the only longitudinal one—of public opinion and attitudes. I don’t think they’re incredibly useful anymore at predicting the outcomes of elections. They remain really useful at telling us how people feel; translating that into how they’ll behave has always been a challenge.
@Not the IT Dept.:
FWIW…these are the average favorability numbers from 538’s polling aggregates, as of today at 9:50am:
TRUMP
43.5% Favorable
52.0% Unfavorable
HARRIS
46.2% Favorable
47.8 Unfavorable
@DK:
😀
Very interesting
https://x.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/1851674681717481819
If Senile Don cakes on any more makeup and bronzer, supremacists will disavow him. What the heck is happening to his face?
Is it possible that gender and racial bias are still playing stronger roles than our “should be strictly meritocratic” wishes would prefer?
@DK: And what’s going on with his posture?? He looks like one of boiler room telemarketing guys from Glengarry Glenross.
@jake:
Hey, thanks for contributing the the conversation. I’m curious, have you read OTB for a while and just decided to comment? Or did you come to us recently–like through the Drudge link?
When a new active commenter pops up, I’m always curious about how they found us.
@just nutha: It’s certainly possible. While there are other explanations, Biden was viewed considerably more favorably than Clinton or Harris. But that doesn’t explain why Trump’s numbers have moved in the direction they have.
@DK: Those numbers are slightly more encouraging. Gallup has the advantage of having been around longer, so it offers the ability for longitudinal analysis. But, in the main, I prefer aggregates to single polls.
I’m of a pessimistic disposition where electoral politics are concerned, so my best hope for a good outcome is that enough traditionally-Republican voters get disgusted enough by Agent Orange’s antics that they decide not to cast a vote for President.
@jake: Well, if Jim Jordan is saying it, it must be true.
@just nutha:
I laughed out loud. Omg hahaha.
@Matt Bernius:
Drudge linked to OTB? I haven’t been on the Drudge page in ages.
@DK: Blackface is a time honored tradition, especially among his supporters.
I used to think the shit show that was the last 11 weeks of the Trump administration would weigh heavily on any attempted comeback. After the 2020 election there was a feeling of just trying to make it to Jan 20 without any institutional breakdowns or international crises. The potential dysfunction went way beyond what happened on Jan 6. Esper was gone, along with Barr and even DeVos and Chao. Yes, good riddance to some them, but that left a hodgepodge of acting cabinet members and deputies, many of them Trump loyalists. Perhaps the story of the Administration’s last 2-1/2 months of incompetence and attempted agency power grabs just couldn’t compete with the attention to one day of actual insurrection.
@just nutha:
Trump’s posture has always been awful. Marla Maples told him it sucked. Her word.
I think it suits him perfectly. Of course a churl would have lousy posture.
@Gustopher:
Ha!
I know Senile Don is jealous of Obama, but come on. Dis tew much.
Speaking as someone who didn’t view him with favor, where is Richard M Nixon when we REALLY need him. (/Snark!)
@James Joyner:
RCP currently shows Harris’s favorability at -3.2, and there are several individual polls where she’s in positive territory. Hillary’s favorability on RCP in 2016 was -12.6, and there wasn’t a single positive poll for her.
Gallup is one of the oldest pollsters, but it isn’t necessarily the best. Indeed, it stopped releasing election polls after 2012 when its final poll showed Romney ahead by 1 point.
Harris’s numbers aren’t great by historical standards, but my statement that she isn’t staggeringly unpopular like Hillary is well-supported by the data. Your post cited Gallup only and ignored literally every other pollster in existence. This is sloppy cherry-picking, and you should update the post to account for the broader data.
No, it’s a reflection of the balkanization of media and well-funded disinformation campaigns. Polarization is the effect, not the cause. If you don’t understand why 40% of Americans believe that (say) millions of rapists and murderers are coming across our borders every year, chalking it up to “polarization” doesn’t help.
Also, you need to inflation-adjust these numbers. If 1980 Jimmy Carter, the GOP boogey-man himself, had a 68% favorable rating at the time, it’s clear that these numbers simply do not mean the same thing today, and cannot be compared across eras in good faith.
@Flat Earth Luddite:
https://x.com/dick_nixon