In the discussion thread of this morning’s “Vibe Check” post, @Kylopod succinctly expresses a sentiment I see from others in the discussion: “Hillary was staggeringly unpopular, something which is very much not the case for Harris.” Alas, strange though it may be, that’s simply not the case.
As Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones noted a week ago,
About half of U.S. adults rate Donald Trump and Kamala Harris positively on a 10-point favorability scale. This puts them on the lower end of what Gallup has measured using this rating scale for presidential nominees dating back to 1956. Trump’s current rating is similar to what he received in 2020 but significantly better than his 36% positive score in 2016, which is the record low.
Put in graphic form, it’s rather stunning:
To be sure, this is mostly a reflection of our toxic levels of polarization along party lines. With the notable exception of Barry Goldwater, whose 1964 blowout loss was historic, almost all of the most unpopular major party nominees have come in the most recent cycles. As recently as 2012, losing candidate Mitt Romney was 12 points above water. In 1992, George H.W. Bush, who lost big as an incumbent President, was 19 points above water. And, in 1980, Jimmy Carter, who lost 44 states as an incumbent President, was 36 points above water. Times have changed.
Still, it’s noteworthy that Harris’s 50 point unfavorability is essentially the same as Clinton’s 52; indeed, it’s within the margin of sampling error. It’s even more noteworthy that Trump’s current unfavorables are much lower than in 2016 and slightly lower (although, again, within the margins of error) than in 2020.
Indeed, while Trump was viewed considerably more unfavorably than Clinton (nine points is well outside the margin of error) he’s actually less unpopular (albeit within the margin of error) than Harris. And, not that anyone here needs reminding, he won in 2016.
Can I explain this? No, I can not.
