The Emerson poll reports: National Poll: Biden’s Approval Recovers Two Years into Term, Trump Maintains Lead over DeSantis in GOP Primary. Biden remains underwater, but is back to 44% approval after being down to 39%. Meanwhile, I think it is significant that Trump remains well ahead of DeSantis (55%-29%) among primary/caucus voters.
His 44% approval is within a point of his best number in the last twelve months (and 48% disapproval is his best mark int hat timeframe):
Still, the FiveThirtyEight average has him at 41.6%.
And for what it is worth:
President Biden trails former President Trump in a hypothetical 2024 Presidential match-up, 41% to 44%. Ten percent would support someone else and 4% are undecided.
[…]
In a hypothetical match-up between Biden and DeSantis, Biden leads by less than a percentage point, 40% to 39%. Thirteen percent would support someone else and 9% are undecided. Since the November poll, DeSantis has held his support at 39% while Biden has lost three percentage points, from 43% to 40%.
I would argue that Trump’s 44% is likely closer to his ceiling than Biden’s 41%.
It’s early, but not as early as you might think. Explicit campaigning on the GOP side in particular will be launching late Spring/this summer for certain (after all, we are less than a year away from primary voting). Of course, DeSantis is currently engaging in implicit campaigning via his headline generation in Florida.
