Regular commenter @Scott points me to the NYT demographic breakdown of the key Senate races:
Lots of caveats apply. These results are somewhat preliminary. More importantly, given that we have secret balloting, the breakdowns rely on exit polling, select local data, and a lot of analytical art. Still, given that none of the results strike me as shocking, I find them a reasonable basis for preliminary analysis. This is, after all, a blog and not the American Political Science Review.
Scott’s assessment is that “it looks like an overperformance by the young, non-white, and educated population. A generational rebellion.”
I’m always skeptical of claims that young voters were decisive, simply because the under-30 cohort notoriously doesn’t show up. Anecdotally, though, my three oldest (aged 27, 26, and 23) voted, the latter two despite the inconvenience of having to drive a considerable distance because they hadn’t updated their registration address since the general. My not-quite-18-year-old and 15-year-old weren’t eligible, of course, but were as enthusiastic about the election (including some ballot initiatives) as I’ve ever seen them.
That those with college degrees and, especially, postgraduate education turned out for Democrats is not at all surprising. Trump’s emergence as the Republican standard bearer in 2016 caused a mini-realignment, bringing in some blue-collar voters and Black and Hispanic men while turning off educated professionals. It appears Trump’s policies drove away many new members of the MAGA coalition while further alienating those he drove away.
The obvious takeaway, though, is that the “gender gap” that emerged under Ronald Reagan is now a gender chasm. If only men had voted, Republicans would have won every race except North Carolina’s. To the extent one views the midterm results as victories for democracy and the rule of law, thank women.
And, somewhat ironically, given Ruy Teixeira’s recantation of his Emerging Democratic Majority theory, it seems to have borne out, at least for this cycle. If only whites had voted, Republicans would have won every race but Maine’s. Diversity, apparently, really is our strength.
