CNN (“CNN Poll: A third of Democrats now identify as democratic socialists“):
About a third of Democrats and Democratic-leaning adults identify as democratic socialists, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
Both the headline and the lede misapprehend the polling. On page 20, we see that 18% of those surveyed have a favorable opinion of The Democratic Socialists of America, compared to 36% with an unfavorable opinion, 25% who’ve never heard of them, and 21% with no opinion. On page 33, we see that 42% of Democrats have a favorable opinion, compared to 7% with an unfavorable opinion, 27% who’ve never heard of them, and 24% with no opinion. The numbers are slightly different for those who merely lean Democratic.
Having a favorable opinion of an organization is not the same as “identifying” as a member.
And, of course, there are the usual caveats about polling. The survey sampled 1225 adults, which means a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.2%. The error for subsamples (28% of those sampled identified as Democrats) is larger. And there’s always the matter of folks who agree to participate in a lengthy survey being increasingly unrepresentative.
All that said, the combination of the favorable opinion of Democrats here toward the DSA and the handful of examples of DSA-identifying candidates winning Democratic primaries, often against incumbents or establishment-backed candidates, is not nothing.
This also tracks with my intuition:
Who makes up the democratic socialist wing of the Democratic Party’s base? According to CNN’s poll, Democratic-aligned Americans who identify as democratic socialists:
- Tend to be younger (59% are younger than 45, compared to 46% of non-democratic socialists aligned with the Democratic Party) and are more likely to be White (57% to 49%)
- Are less likely to have a college degree (66% to 54%) and more likely to earn less than $100,000 a year (76% to 65%)
- Are more likely to say they are extremely motivated to vote this year (66% of those who are registered voters say so, compared to 57% for non-democratic socialists), though both groups overwhelmingly support Democratic congressional candidates (99% of democratic socialists and 94% of non-democratic socialists)
- Are more positive toward the Democratic Party. They are more likely to hold favorable views of the Democratic Party (68% to 60%) and its congressional leaders, and more likely to have negative views of the Republican Party and its congressional leaders
Although democratic socialists are just as likely as other Democratic-leaning Americans to say the Democratic Party needs to be completely reformed or needs major changes, they are more likely to see as positive changing the current leadership of the party and nominating younger candidates. Notably, they are nearly twice as likely to support the party moving to the left on policy issues.
Honestly, it’s not obvious to me how “Democratic Socialist” differs from “progressive” here. While most progressives have eschewed the “socialist” label because it allows opponents to tar them as Communist, Bernie Sanders, AOC, and a handful of others have embraced it.
Beyond that, I see it as part and parcel of the frustration, which has manifested in different ways in both of our major parties for quite a long time now, with the system as a whole. Going back to at least the 2008 financial crisis, there has been a sense that the establishment wings of both parties is more aligned to the interests of Wall Street than the average American. Sanders got quite a bit of traction with that during the 2012 Democratic primaries and, of course, Donald Trump rode it to the 2016 Republican nomination.
Democratic socialists also split from the rest of the party on US aid to Israel – 48% say they’d be enthusiastic about a candidate who believes the US should cut support to Israel, compared to 20% for non-democratic socialists. Three years into the war in Gaza, the issue has animated many Democratic primaries this cycle.
It’s rare that foreign policy gets much traction in American politics, but the Gaza war has indeed catalyzed a large part of the Democratic base. It almost certainly hurt Kamala Harris in the last election.
Democratic-aligned adults are generally comfortable with the possibility of their party nominating a candidate who identifies as a democratic socialist.
While enthusiasm is considerably higher among democratic socialists, 64% of Democratic-aligned adults who do not identify as democratic socialists would be at least OK with such a candidate, while 36% would be upset or uneasy.
Ultimately, Democratic primary voters will select a candidate, not a movement. I certainly wouldn’t count AOC out in 2028. She was (barely) old enough to run last go-around, but was boxed out by Joe Biden’s decision to run for re-election and then the party’s decision to hand the nomination to Harris.
