Friday’s Forum

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FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Bill Jempty says:

    Man comes home to find a car in the living room of his home

    Husband- How did this car get in our living room?
    Wife- It took a right hand turn at the kitchen.

    Last night I got up to go pee around eleven. I immediately lights of emergency vehicles in our condo parking lot. I open the front door to see what was going on.

    To make a long story short, one of the people living in unit 113 when parking her car hit the gas instead of the brake and hit the condo building we live in. They damaged the condo standpipe system in the crash too.

    The driver isn’t hurt. Her car is. Next to her parking space, is where I park my Toyota Matrix. The Matrix came through it unscathed.

    You got to love Florida. When is it again me and the wife leave on our trip to India?

    2
  2. becca says:

    I was listening to an interview with a fellow that kept a journal of memorable lines in every book he reads.
    My favorite word passage is from A Short History of a Small Place by TR Pearson. The first person writer description of his feeling when he turned back to look at his home as his mother turns on the porch light. A moment that was “shot through with melancholy” because that moment that vision that feeling is gone forever, never to be experienced again.
    Shot through with melancholy. Always makes me misty.

    3
  3. Kathy says:

    On the price of cell phones on yesterday’s thread, Samsung has a wide array of models, from cheap/reasonable to outrageous. The flagship models, like the S24, S24 Ultra, and both foldable models, are outrageously expensive.

    The one I got at work, A04s, is about $200 retail.

  4. Bill Jempty says:

    @Kathy:

    The one I got at work, A04s, is about $200 retail.

    My cellphone, which we got through T-Mobile, cost like $400.

    Before that phone, I had a tracphone for years. Where you load minutes onto the phone every 3 months but they accumulated also. I had tons of minutes accumulated before getting a phone connected to DW’s cell.

  5. MarkedMan says:

    @Kathy: The cheapest iPhone is more than twice that ($429) and given how you’ve said you use your phone, not worth it for you at all. For someone like me, though, I find the highest end model worth it. For one thing, I only replace it every five years, and that top of the line model is still quite good five years down the road. For another, I take a lot of photos, and I use my iPhone instead of my stand alone camera 99% of the time. I just checked, and since the last time I closed out all my apps (sometime in the past 10 days), I’ve had 37 different ones open, apps ranging from music, to podcasts, to Outlook, to a couple of browsers, Duolingo, the control to my hearing aids, the NYT’s Puzzle app as well as their cooking one, a dictionary, my Library app that i use to listen to audiobooks, and well, 26 more. I feel I get spectacular value for my money. If I was an Android user, the high end Samsung would no doubt also impress, and it costs the same or a bit more.

    1
  6. Bill Jempty says:

    From ABC News

    South Korean police raided the offices of Jeju Air and the operator of Muan International Airport Thursday as they step up a probe into the fatal crash of a Boeing 737-800 that killed 179 people.

    The flight was carrying 181 passengers and crew from Thailand to South Korea on Sunday when it issued a mayday call and belly-landed before slamming into a barrier, killing all aboard except two flight attendants.

    Authorities on Thursday carried out search and seizure operations at Muan airport where flight 2216 crashed, a regional aviation office in the southwestern city, and Jeju Air’s office in the capital Seoul, police said.

    Jeju Air’s chief executive Kim E-bae has also been banned from leaving the country as the investigation continues, police said separately.

    After some previous South Korean disaster, a company executive or executives tried to flee. It may have been after the Sampoong shopping mall collapse.

    Law enforcement looking into a non-terrorism aviation accident isn’t unusual. It happened after the crash of Air France Flight 447 also.

    Kathy, may make comment on this news. She can also correct me if I said anything wrong up above also.

    1
  7. Kathy says:

    @MarkedMan:

    If I paid $1 for a top end iphone, I’d consider myself fleeced.

    Well, not really. I could probably resell it for a lot more. But I’ve developed an allergy to overhyped products.

    Anyway, I use my phone a lot. But most things run well enough on the cheaper model. The problem is the company hits and misses, most often misses, on the phones they get us. I made do by using one of my mom’s old phones when she got a new one. but the last such is a 2017 model. I relegated that one to audiobook and podcast duty, web browser, and email.

    1
  8. Rick DeMent says:

    So, with all the hand-ringing around Mike Johnson only being able to lose one vote to be named Speaker, is there any path for the Democrats to steal the speakership? I mean, if two or three Republicans vote nay against and all of the Democrats vote for Jefferies, wouldn’t that give the speakership to him?

    It seems like a dicey move for any Republican to vote nay. Do we think that those Republicans are just posturing and they will get in line for the actual vote? Are they willing to risk a Democrat getting the Speakership or is my electoral math wrong or is my understanding of the procedure wrong?

  9. Fortune says:

    @Rick DeMent: The Speaker must receive a majority of the votes cast. It’s not a yea or nay vote, the members vote for a candidate.

    1
  10. Kathy says:

    @Bill Jempty:

    Law enforcement should stay away from accident investigations. The goal of these things is to prevent future accidents. It’s been eminently successful in this, as attested by the steadily downward trend in air accidents.

    Finding someone to blame might make people feel better, but doesn’t help in prevention.

    4
  11. Scott says:

    A factoid to ponder.

    Breaking down the number of veterans in the 119th Congress

    When lawmakers convene the 119th Congress on Friday, the group will boast 100 military veterans among their members, the largest such caucus in eight years.

    Sixteen new veterans will join 84 incumbent members of Congress with military experience.

    This is 17.7% of the Congress. Given that only 6.2% of the adult US population are veterans, then veterans are highly over represented in Congress.

  12. Scott says:

    @Kathy: @MarkedMan: We are an iPhone family and have been for a long time. However, I have taken to buying used iPhones and have had a great experience with them. I currently have an used iPhone SE (2nd generation), mostly because of its small form factor) that I have had for about 3 years. I only upgrade when it become obsolete.

  13. charontwo says:

    @Fortune:

    The procedures are a bit more complex than that, see this from near the top of Thursday’s forum:

    Matt’s Five Points

    Meanwhile, there is a risk of a fresh new pandemic:

    Bird flu

    Experts say they have lost faith in the government’s ability to contain the outbreak.

    “We are in a terrible situation and going into a worse situation,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada. “I don’t know if the bird flu will become a pandemic, but if it does, we are screwed.”

    Case in point: The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month announced a federal order to test milk nationwide. Researchers welcomed the news but said it should have happened months ago — before the virus was so entrenched.

    “It’s disheartening to see so many of the same failures that emerged during the covid-19 crisis reemerge,” said Tom Bollyky, director of the Global Health Program at the Council on Foreign Relations.

    Far more bird flu damage is inevitable, but the extent of it will be left to the Trump administration and Mother Nature. Already, the USDA has funneled more than $1.7 billion into tamping down the bird flu on poultry farms since 2022, which includes reimbursing farmers who’ve had to cull their flocks, and more than $430 million into combating the bird flu on dairy farms. In coming years, the bird flu may cost billions of dollars more in expenses and losses. Dairy industry experts say the virus kills roughly 2% to 5% of infected dairy cows and reduces a herd’s milk production by about 20%.

    Worse, the outbreak poses the threat of a pandemic. More than 60 people in the U.S. have been infected, mainly by cows or poultry, but cases could skyrocket if the virus evolves to spread efficiently from person to person. And the recent news of a person critically ill in Louisiana with the bird flu shows that the virus can be dangerous.

    Just a few mutations could allow the bird flu to spread between people. Because viruses mutate within human and animal bodies, each infection is like a pull of a slot machine lever.

    “Even if there’s only a 5% chance of a bird flu pandemic happening, we’re talking about a pandemic that probably looks like 2020 or worse,” said Tom Peacock, a bird flu researcher at the Pirbright Institute in the United Kingdom, referring to covid. “The U.S. knows the risk but hasn’t done anything to slow this down,” he added.

    Beyond the bird flu, the federal government’s handling of the outbreak reveals cracks in the U.S. health security system that would allow other risky new pathogens to take root. “This virus may not be the one that takes off,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, director of the emerging diseases group at the World Health Organization. “But this is a real fire exercise right now, and it demonstrates what needs to be improved.”

    Vastly more at the link.

    1
  14. Rob1 says:

    Trump has indicated he will attend Jimmy Carter’s funeral service. I know there’s protocol for these events, but I hope the Carter family would be able to pack the first several rows with family and friends, which would of course include the Bidens, the Obamas, and the Clinton’s. And reserve a spot father back, away from attention for Trump. Insist on it and he might not show at all.

    The image of him sitting in the front row at this hallowed event, is jarring to a sense of decency. He really doesn’t deserve the consideration.

    9
  15. Scott says:

    For those short attention spans that have already forgotten Syria, looks like Turkiye and its SNA proxies are still duking it out with the Kurdish SDF in northern Syria.

    https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2025/2-january-11-turkish-artillery-shelling-sdf-positions-near

    1
  16. Joe says:

    @Bill Jempty: Many years ago, my late father’s car was the subject of local news paper coverage when he made the same gas/break error and shattered the plate glass window of the store he was trying to park in front of. While I am glad that neither he nor anyone else was injured by his declining driving skills, we waited way too long to have the “keys” conversation with him and worried that when he stopped driving the body shop would fail for lack of his business.

    1
  17. Kathy says:

    @charontwo:

    I’m less concerned about flu. For one thing, vaccines for it can be made rather quickly (of course, there should be one in production for the H5N1 family right now….). For another, previous strains of bird and other influenza viruses, like the swine flu H1N1 in 2009, have successfully been treated with Tamiflu. Last, masks, distracting, and lockdowns were far more effective against the flu in 2020-21 than even against COVID.

    The big issues are: 1) a lot of people won’t get the shots, 2) a great many will decline Tamiflu in favor of the next miracle useless drug pushed by idiots, and 3) we know large numbers of people would rather see a lot of deaths than endure a mask*.

    So, yeah, we’re screwed. But those who choose to take precautions stand a good chance against it.

    *I kind of expect a ban on masks in public in the Great Red States that make up Dumbf**ckistan.

  18. Kathy says:

    @Rob1:

    Was the felon even invited?

  19. CSK says:

    @Kathy:

    Apparently he was. I think all living ex-presidents have to be.

  20. Bill Jempty says:

    @Kathy:

    Law enforcement should stay away from accident investigations. The goal of these things is to prevent future accidents. It’s been eminently successful in this, as attested by the steadily downward trend in air accidents.

    I agree air crash investigations should be left to people who specialize in that.

    BTW, I know of at least two times where surviving pilots were prosecuted after a plane crash. Here and here. More famously the cases of a ground controller snf ATC people being prosecuted.

  21. DK says:

    Out here in USC land, we’re bitterly disappointed about Texas and especially Notre Dame (gag) advancing. That said, the great SEC faceplant has been glorious to behold lol. I do think the playoff format has been exciting and renewed interest in the sport.

    Anyway, this playoff thing was a good experiment, despite all the complaining and second-guessing. CFB is almost there. But this year made a strong case for a standard 16-team bracket without this year’s creative placement shenanigans. Standard 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, 4-13, 5-12, 6-11, 7-10, 8-9 seeding would reduce some of the issues.

    1
  22. Bill Jempty says:

    @Scott:

    Given that only 6.2% of the adult US population are veterans, then veterans are highly over represented in Congress.

    Lawyers are more over represented in Congress.

    4
  23. Bill Jempty says:

    @DK:

    But this year made a strong case for a standard 16-team bracket without this year’s creative placement shenanigans. Standard 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, 4-13, 5-12, 6-11, 7-10, 8-9 seeding would reduce some of the issues.

    Why don’t they just make it 64 like the NCAA basketball tournament? No matter what number you come up with, somebody is going to feel unfairly left out.

    I’m one of the few people who miss the pre-playoff days. Then, I haven’t watched a college football game in at least 25 years.

  24. Mr. Prosser says:

    Scrolling around on my streaming apps looking for something to escape reality I came across Canadian Bacon a 1995 satire by Michael Moore and starring John Candy. The basic plot is an American president (Alan Alda) with falling ratings agrees to gin up a cold war with Canada. Of course it all goes wrong and a bunch of vigilantes invade (Led by John Candy). Anyway it’s dumb but reminded me of the pres-elect hassling Trudeau. Some good quotes.

    Boomer: Hold it right there, Canuck!
    RCMP Officer at Headquarters: Who are you?
    Boomer: I’m your worst nightmare. I’m a citizen with a constitutional right to bear arms!

    Edwin S. Simon, NBS News Anchor: The Canadians. They walk among us. William Shatner. Michael J. Fox. Monty Hall. Mike Meyers. Alex Trebek. All of them Canadians. All of them here.

    1
  25. just nutha says:

    @Kathy: My provider never advertises non-premium phones. It has a good feel for the conspicuous consumption needs/desires of its subscribers.

  26. Pete S says:

    @Bill Jempty:

    I think the teams that made the the biggest complaints about not making the 16 team field (sorry hosts, Alabama) wound up crashing in their non-playoff bowl games. I think the committee actually did a pretty good job of choosing the best 12 teams to be in remembering the restrictions on them.

  27. wr says:

    @Rob1: “The image of him sitting in the front row at this hallowed event, is jarring to a sense of decency. He really doesn’t deserve the consideration.”

    He doesn’t, but (and it’s painful to type this) the office he has won does. This is not just a personal ceremony, it is a state funeral.

    2
  28. just nutha says:

    @Kathy:

    The big issues are: 1) a lot of people won’t get the shots, 2) a great many will decline Tamiflu in favor of the next miracle useless drug pushed by idiots, and 3) we know large numbers of people would rather see a lot of deaths than endure a mask*.

    These things, and others are how nature “takes its course.” Probably wiser to let nature and free will have their way. Certainly less stressful.

    1
  29. MarkedMan says:

    @Kathy: Per this six month old article, there are already two vaccines that should be effective against the type of bird flu seen in cows. However, it is a real possibility that it would take a mutation for it to jump to humans in great numbers, in which case the vaccines may or may not do anything.

  30. DK says:

    @Bill Jempty:

    No matter what number you come up with, somebody is going to feel unfairly left out.

    Except the issues to which I refer are not complaints from teams being left out. People complain about that in every playoff in every sport. I don’t care about that at all, nor should CFB.

    Because this was a weird 12-team playoff requiring four teams to receive byes, the seeding was…creative to say the least. And otherwise contributed to some odd on-field results. A standard 16 team playoff would resolve that.

    Outcry from those who didn’t get in is de rigeur in every postseason everywhere. Should every sport thus eliminate playoffs? No.

    1
  31. Mister Bluster says:

    Still alive in ’25!
    DOB January 3, 1948
    Thanks Mom.
    RIP

    Many years ago my father’s sister, Aunt Ruth, gave my parents a bright red, personalized, glass Christmas Tree ornament to hang on their Christmas tree. It had my name on it, a Santa face and “Christmas 1949”. My parents kept it for many years and somehow I got possession of it maybe 35 years ago. Since then it has been sitting on the kitchen counter. The other day as I was wiping some crumbs off the counter I somehow bumped an empty soda bottle that fell into my 75 year old Christmas ornament which broke into tiny little pieces. Ain’t no super glue or duct tape gonna’ fix that. All I could do was wipe the little shards of bright red glass into the wastebasket. I set the trash out today and by now it’s headed to the landfill.
    Damn!

    4
  32. CSK says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    Well, try to have a happy birthday, anyway.

    2
  33. Kathy says:

    @CSK:

    In this case, a pretend invitation would serve.

    @Bill Jempty:

    Negligence can be the basis of a criminal charge, and this is not outrageous or irrational. A mistake may or may not involve negligence, or indifference. But the drive to makes someone pay is strong.

    What needs to be weighed is which matters most: finding a culprit to punish, or preventing many mor deaths for years and years? I lean very strongly towards the second.

    @just nutha:

    Your provider probably gets more $$$ from an expensive phone than from a cheaper one. Every last possible penny must be squeezed out.

  34. Mister Bluster says:

    @CSK:..

    Thank you.
    I’ll be OK.

    1
  35. CSK says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    I know you will.

  36. Joe says:

    @Mr. Prosser:

    They walk among us. William Shatner. Michael J. Fox. Monty Hall. Mike Meyers. Alex Trebek. All of them Canadians

    If I encounter Trebek or Hall walking among us, I am calling Ghostbusters!

    1
  37. Mister Bluster says:

    Johnson wins Speaker on first vote.

  38. Kathy says:

    Speaking of pandemics, COVID is surging in the US.

    Booster uptake is painfully low.

    It will forever be a mystery what drives these surges. no one will ever be able to possibly now.

    1
  39. CSK says:

    Judge Merchan will sentence Trump in the hush money case on Jan. 10. Trump has to appear virtually or in person.

  40. Kathy says:

    @CSK:

    According to this, the convicted felon won’t even get as much as a slap on the wrist.

    Disgusting. and he’ll complain like a toddler not allowed to have an extra cookie.

    1
  41. Gustopher says:

    @charontwo: People say the Trump administration has no plan to combat the housing crisis, or rising social security and Medicare costs… and here we have a growing pandemic right under our noses, which will address these issues from the demand side.

    In coming years, the bird flu may cost billions of dollars more in expenses and losses.

    Fun Fact: As the hospital system becomes overwhelmed, total medical costs plateau, and future medical costs decline.

    Dairy industry experts say the virus kills roughly 2% to 5% of infected dairy cows and reduces a herd’s milk production by about 20%.

    I am curious about whether the cows are being vaccinated, honestly. A 20% reduction in output would suggest enough of an economic value that vaccinating herds would make sense, even if you didn’t care about a pandemic.

    It’s not like they aren’t shoveling them full of antibiotics and things like that to boost production.

    1
  42. Lucysfootball says:

    *I assumed the posts praising Carter that Trump made on Truth Social were ghostwritten for him. I think his latest posts confirm that, he’s now whining about the flags being flown half staff during his inauguration:
    Recently, Trump told his followers on Truth Social complained that “no American can be happy” about the flag flying at half-staff during his inauguration. The president-elect also bashed Democrats for being “giddy” about the flag being at half-staff while he takes the oath of office.

    “In any event, because of the death of President Jimmy Carter, the Flag may, for the first time ever during an Inauguration of a future President, be at half mast,” Trump wrote on Friday. “Nobody wants to see this, and no American can be happy about it. Let’s see how it plays out. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

    They should rescind his invitation to the funeral.

    1
  43. Kathy says:

    @Gustopher:

    Vaccinating livestock is common practice. I think mRNA vaccines were used in cattle before COVID provided an opportunity for use in humans.

    That said, I’ve no idea if herds are getting flu vaccines or not. They really should.

    1
  44. dazedandconfused says:

    @Bill Jempty:

    We have an adversarial system of justice, in which the courts judge the facts as presented AFTER full investigation, but that is not universal. Many countries have an investigative court system (notably France for one) in which judges and the courts play a large role, “ride herd” if you will, over the investigations.

    1
  45. just nutha says:

    @Lucysfootball: It could be worse. My executive order on flags would have been to fly them upside down from inauguration day on.

    1
  46. dazedandconfused says:

    We tried to binge “Dune Prophecy” last night. Can’t give a definitive report though, only made it through ep. 3 before giving up and feeling slightly nauseated.

    They seem to have been aspiring to be the next GOT but IMO it has no chance of that. Prophecy’s a humorless tale set in Frank Herbert’s humorless world. There will probably be some fans but I can’t be one of them. It is utterly bereft of those wonderfully developed fascinating characters GOT had. Let’s call it an acute lack of “Dinklage”, for lack of a better term.

    One and a half stars..all for their special effects dept.

    1
  47. Gustopher says:

    @Lucysfootball: Had we simply heard that the inaugural committee was requesting the flags be raised for the day, and then go back to the traditional half-mast for Carter, I think I would have agreed with them.

    Repeat for the office and all that. A peaceful transition of power is to be celebrated, etc.

    But with the whining? And the victimhood? No way. Half-mast. Anything else is an affront to a far greater president than Trump.

    1
  48. Kathy says:

    @dazedandconfused:

    Can’t give a definitive report though, only made it through ep. 3 before giving up and feeling slightly nauseated.

    You kind of contradicted yourself right there.

    My estimate is I may watch it someday when I’m bored, have nothing else to do, nowhere to go, and can’t find something else to watch. I just didn’t find the world building in Dune as shown in the Villeneuve movie interesting.

    BTW, I’m close to finishing a book called Box Office Poison. It presents a list of what the author considers important flops, not all of them bad movies (but most of them). One of them is the 80s Dune. What’s amazing is how many of those movies I’ve actually seen, mostly by chance on cable now and then.

  49. Bill Jempty says:

    @Kathy:

    One of them is the 80s Dune. What’s amazing is how many of those movies I’ve actually seen, mostly by chance on cable now and then.

    I survived saw the 3 hour and 39 minute version of Heaven’s Gate when it first came out in the cinemas in Nov 1980/Dec 80.

    Another huge bomb, Cleopatra, I missed. I have never watched Dune.

  50. dazedandconfused says:

    @Kathy:
    Fair enough. A definitive report thru ep 3 is all I can do. Or wish to ever be able to do, I guess.

  51. Kathy says:

    @Bill Jempty:

    I streamed Cleopatra on Netflix years ago. It wasn’t terrible, and the production values are first class. The history is largely right, though much simplified. For instance, Octavian wouldn’t have thrown a spear at the Egyptian official upon declaring war. And his disclosure of Anthony’s will should have been a shameful, sacrilegious act he’d have had to justify to the Senate before showing them what was in it.

    I’ve read the original plan was for two movies: Caesar and Cleopatra, and then Anthony and Cleopatra. That would have made more sense than killing off the leading man halfway through, then bringing in Anthony, who hadn’t been seen that much, to take over.

    It did not escape the flaw that most stories, and many histories, of Cleopatra wind up making her a supporting character to Caesar and Anthony.

  52. Michael Reynolds says:

    New season of Vera, doing one of our two versions of a Vera drinking game. Drink on ‘love’ or drink on ‘pet.’ I’m doing ‘pet.’ It’s safer. Four Roses Single Barrel.

  53. Rob1 says:

    @Kathy:
    Sounds like he invited himself.

  54. Rob1 says:

    @wr:

    He doesn’t, but (and it’s painful to type this) the office he has won does. This is not just a personal ceremony, it is a state funeral.

    Trump has transgressed protocol, trod on decorum, and defiled decency. He no longer deserves the consideration he has rejected. Keeping his malevolent presence out of the limelight of this state funeral is the way to honor the office. He, after all, has 4 years to continue his relatively unchecked rampage. Maybe more if he and his followers find a way break the term limits rule.

    3