Friday’s Forum

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FILED UNDER: Open Forum,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. charontwo says:

    I normally never read Marc A. Thiessen at WaPo because he is so over-the-top absurd – like the most extreme MAGA conceivable. but this teaser sucked me in:

    Marc A. Thiessen

    Trump doesn’t need an Iran deal

    Curiosity got he best of me:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/02/president-trump-iran-war-speech-endgame/

    So here it is, in all its delusional excess and vast ignorance:

    Trump doesn’t need an Iran deal

    Instead of waiting for Tehran to agree, Trump can declare victory and impose his will in five steps.

    In his address to the nation Wednesday night, President Donald Trump said that if there is no deal with Iran’s surviving leaders in the next two to three weeks, he will “bring them back to the stone ages.” Good. Trump does not need a deal to end Operation Epic Fury. In fact, he is much better off without one.

    Rather than waiting for Iran to agree to the conditions he has put on the table, he can simply impose the peace terms he has set unilaterally.

    Here’s how to do so in five steps:

    1. Complete all remaining military tasks. Trump said the war will “continue until our objectives are fully achieved.” So which tasks remain? Seize or destroy Iran’s fissile material so the regime cannot easily restart its nuclear program (or give what Trump calls its “nuclear dust” to terrorists for a dirty bomb). Take out all the remaining targets on the military’s list. Implement the innovative plan that sources tell me Centcom Commander Adm. Brad Cooper has prepared to open the Strait of Hormuz by force, and then hand the mission over to a multinational armada made up of countries who receive oil from the strait, which must take responsibility for keeping it open. Or, alternatively, the United States can charge a substantial “escort fee” for each ship passing through the strait, which would be waived for countries participating in the mission. And then, finally, either take control of Kharg Island, by seizing or blockading this linchpin of Iran’s energy export sector, or destroy it to cripple Iran’s ability to fund terrorist proxies and a military rebuild.

    If the U.S. completes these tasks, it will have a stranglehold over Iran, and the regime will never again be able to hold the world’s economy hostage. U.S. military commanders believe that these objectives can be achieved in the next two to three weeks, but the determination of when the mission is complete should be conditions-based. Success matters more than speed.

    Seriously? It’s that simple?

    2. Eliminate the Iranian leaders who were spared for the purpose of negotiations. Trump reportedly asked Israel not to strike certain Iranian leaders so he would have negotiating partners. If those leaders refuse his terms of surrender, their existence has no remaining purpose. Trump should issue one last ultimatum, then unleash Israel to take them out in a final barrage of leadership strikes.

    3. Unilaterally declare victory. No ceasefire. No peace agreement. When Cooper informs the president that he has achieved all the military tasks set out for him, Trump should announce that he is suspending military operations.

    4. Impose peace terms. Trump should announce to the remnants of the regime that all the demands he put forward are now in effect and will be imposed by force if necessary. If Iran violates any of his terms — by trying to rebuild its nuclear or ballistic missile programs, for instance, or providing support for its terrorist proxies — the U.S. and Israel reserve the right to strike at will. Iran tests America’s resolve at its peril.

    5. Bar Iran from firing on protesters and set conditions for eventual regime collapse. Trump should inform the regime that the U.S. will tolerate no more massacres and executions. If the Iranian people take to the streets and the regime fires upon them, the units and leaders responsible will face elimination. Each time they kill innocent Iranians, the U.S. and Israel reserve the right to respond by killing Iran’s political and military leaders.

    The threat of such strikes should hang over the regime like the sword of Damocles. It would be a game changer. Right now, Iran’s surviving leaders believe that Trump’s boot will come off their necks in a few weeks’ time. It may require a few surgical strikes after major combat operations have ended to disabuse them of that notion, but once they understand that a missile could fall on them from the sky at any moment for any violation of Trump’s terms, that pressure will begin to break the regime’s will and ability to rule.

    It will also create space for the Iranian opposition to organize and challenge the regime. When Iranians see that their oppressors can no longer kill them with impunity, they will lose their fear and become bolder in challenging them. The combination of external military pressure from the U.S. and Israel and internal pressure from the Iranian people will fracture the regime and create an opportunity for Iranians to replace the regime’s murderous theocracy with a pro-American government that is an ally for peace.

    This final element is essential to the long-term success of Trump’s Iran campaign. Forcing the regime from power in four to six weeks was never a military objective of Operation Epic Fury. But it is also true that if the current regime survives in some form, everything Trump accomplished in this war will be reversible. New leaders will take the place of those who have been killed, and capabilities that have been destroyed will eventually be rebuilt. America’s respite from the Iranian threat will be temporary. And once that threat reemerges, there is no guarantee we will have a president with the courage of Donald Trump to repeat what he has done.

    Operation Epic Fury will be a success for the ages. As Trump put it Wednesday night, “Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks.” But the only way to make the success of Operation Epic Fury permanent is to create conditions for the regime to collapse. Trump told the Iranian people, “When we are finished, take over your government.” The bombs have done their work. Now Trump must help the Iranian people do theirs.

    This is a real revelation, as I never realized people so delusional are real.

    ETA: This just reminds me why I never read this fantasist.

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  2. drj says:

    @charontwo:

    Thiessen is a propagandist. As such, he has to say something. Doesn’t matter whether it makes sense or if he believes it or not.

    The point is that the appropriate sounds are being made.

    Orwell:

    And yet, though you could not actually hear what the man was saying, you could not be in any doubt about its general nature. He might be denouncing Goldstein and demanding sterner measures against thought-criminals and saboteurs, he might be fulminating against the atrocities of the Eurasian army, he might be praising Big Brother or the heroes on the Malabar front — it made no difference. Whatever it was, you could be certain that every word of it was pure orthodoxy, pure Ingsoc. As he watched the eyeless face with the jaw moving rapidly up and down, Winston had a curious feeling that this was not a real human being but some kind of dummy. It was not the man’s brain that was speaking, it was his larynx. The stuff that was coming out of him consisted of words, but it was not speech in the true sense: it was a noise uttered in unconsciousness, like the quacking of a duck.

    Arendt:

    Mass propaganda discovered that its audience was ready at all times to believe the worst, no matter how absurd, and did not particularly object to being deceived because it held every statement to be a lie anyhow. The totalitarian mass leaders based their propaganda on the correct psychological assumption that, under such conditions, one could make people believe the most fantastic statements one day, and trust that if the next day they were given irrefutable proof of their falsehood, they would take refuge in cynicism; instead of deserting the leaders who had lied to them, they would protest that they had known all along that the statement was a lie and would admire the leaders for their superior tactical cleverness.

    Moreover, strictly (but also absurdly) speaking, Thiessen is right. Complete all remaining military tasks and no deal will be necessary.

    Which means that there is enough there to deflect and distract. So two sides. And that is enough in the modern media environment.

    After all, quite a few people are not interested in truth at all. The only thing they want is permission to believe what they already believe.

    And that is what Thiessen delivers.

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  3. Kathy says:

    @charontwo:

    This is a real revelation, as I never realized people so delusional are real.

    And how.

    If it were possible, not to mention as easy, to do what this person proposes, it would have been done already.

    4
  4. Charley in Cleveland says:

    Violence is Thiessen’s porn – done to someone else BY someone else. He couldn’t get enough of the Cheney/Rumsfeld war of choice in Iraq, and now he is drooling over the kind of videos they show Trump every day in which parts of Iran are being blown up. The common thread between Trump and Thiessen is their smug self-confidence that their delusions are reality.

    3
  5. gVOR10 says:

    Up early because I couldn’t sleep, so I’ll try to unburden myself by dumping some thoughts on you.

    I had an unsettling experience yesterday. I attended my second meeting of a local “Civil War Roundtable”. Twenty or so FL retirees over lunch at a gated community country club. A brief, shallow presentation on Lee’s retreat from Richmond followed by discussion. Somebody mentioned Nathan Bedford Forrest, which led to complaining about a statue of him having been removed. The group president noted that that sort of thing started during the “civil rights crap” and dragged George Floyd into it. “People don’t understand what the Confederate flag stands for”. And then they wandered into how horrible birthright citizenship is. Seemed to be complete consensus in the room except for me, sitting quietly biting my tongue. After Tuesday’s TV talk from Trump I was asking myself how anyone could support such a blatantly stupid, senile, asshole. This Roundtable meeting answered my question.

    Then, having gotten up early I read Brad DeLong’s substack from Monday. A day before Trump’s talk, but still valid and the best brief summary of the situation I’ve seen. He quotes one Bret Devereaux:

    The Middle East… has exactly two strategic concerns of note: the Suez Canal (and connected Red Sea shipping system) and the oil production in the Persian Gulf and the shipping system used to export it. So long as these two arteries remained open the region does not matter very much to the United States…. Iran is very big and not very important,….[Thus] it would both be very expensive to do anything truly permanent about the Iranian regime and… impossible to sell that expense… as being required or justified or necessary. So successive American presidents… tried to keep a ‘lid’ on Iran at the lowest possible cost. The eventual triumph of this approach was the flawed but useful JCPOA (the ‘Iran deal’) in which Iran in exchange for sanctions relief swore off the pursuit of nuclear weapons (with inspections to verify)…. My own view is that the Obama administration ‘overpaid’ for the concessions of the Iran deal, but the payment having been made, they were worth keeping. Trump scrapped them in 2017 in exchange for exactly nothing….

    DeLong adds his own “not views so much as notes”:

    A reckless, senile or non compos mentis prince, no adult supervision: Start with the internal dynamics in Washington. A sane administration, confronted with the current situation, would be looking for an avenue to de‑escalate and slink home. That is simply what prudence dictates. But we do not have a sane administration. We have a “prince” whose preferences are volatile, who can be worked by whoever last got him on the phone, and whose senior staff behave—at best—like courtiers guessing which way he will jump this afternoon rather than officials executing a stable strategy.

    The traditional realist admonition is: do not look at the prince’s preferences, look at his constraints.
    But this advice assumes the prince is at least minimally rational and goal‑directed. If the prince is not, constraints are a much weaker predictor of outcomes. Institutions can buffer some madness, but they cannot fully neutralize it. And this administration has no figure who can say: this is the line, this is the plan, we are not doing anything crazier than this.

    Depressing.

    Biden had one miserable debate performance and the Dems united to hastily replace him. When do the GOPs act?

    9
  6. charontwo says:

    @gVOR10:

    When do the GOPs act?

    25 Amendment is a dead letter, can not happen to Trump, ever, because cabinet is filled with avaricious sycophants completely beholden to Trump. Impeachment will not occur while Mike Johnson is Speaker.

    So after next January is the earliest even possible.

    3
  7. Kathy says:

    @gVOR10:

    When do the GOPs act?

    At around $8.02 a gallon.

    8
  8. Slugger says:

    How does escorting ships work? I understand how convoys with escorting warships worked against U-boats, but how does it work when the attackers have drones and targetting missiles? I guess the escorts would provide expedient pickup of survivors.

    2
  9. Scott says:

    @gVOR10:

    Seemed to be complete consensus in the room except for me, sitting quietly biting my tongue. After Tuesday’s TV talk from Trump I was asking myself how anyone could support such a blatantly stupid, senile, asshole. This Roundtable meeting answered my question.

    There was going to be gathering of veterans on April 1st in my neighborhood. Being fairly new, I considered going. But I feared that I would encounter this exact brand of people.

    2
  10. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Slugger:

    How does escorting ships work?

    Remember those arcade games where the ducks streamed past and you shot them, sometimes with wax or cotton cartridge propelled by air or a light beam. Kind of like that, where the escorts and escorted are the ducks and the shooters have more options.

    It should be noted that the convoys of WW1 & WW2 suffered significant losses to the Germans and Japanese.

    3
  11. Jay L. Gischer says:

    @charontwo:

    Implement the innovative plan that sources tell me Centcom Commander Adm. Brad Cooper has prepared to open the Strait of Hormuz by force

    I recall that Nixon had a secret plan to win in Vietnam. I wish he had let us in on the secret.

    2
  12. Scott says:

    Photos Of F-15E Wreckage Emerge Amid Iranian Claims It Shot Down An American Fighter

    Iran’s armed forces claim that a U.S. fighter jet has been shot down over the country. According to Iranian state media, a U.S. F-35 was downed, although photos of the wreckage of a fighter on the ground point squarely to the aircraft involved being a U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle — provided they are legitimate.

    Tail code LN indicates Lakenheath AB in United Kingdom. F-15E is a two seater, air to ground aircraft.

    Time will tell what are the actual facts.

    The article has a lot of other assertions and denials and history of other aircraft incidents.

  13. Scott says:

    BTW, Trump Job Approval continues its downward march.

    At some point his job approval will be baked in and upward motion will be limited.

    1
  14. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Slugger:
    If I’m Iran I launch wave drone attacks on Navy ships and exhaust their interceptors. This will force ships back into port to re-arm, putting a strain on an already strained Navy. Then, every few weeks, hit a tanker. Time is on Iran’s side.

    2
  15. gVOR10 says:

    @Jay L. Gischer: Nixon’s secret plan turned out to be wait until he was a lame duck and quit.

    3
  16. Jen says:

    I am a HUGE fan of the show Derry Girls, and for some reason this reminds me of the episode where the Ukrainians from Chernobyl are visiting and one of them asks why the fighting in Ireland, saying basically “yes, but you are all Christians, just different flavors?”

    NEW: The Pentagon today invited more than 3,500 employees to attend a Good Friday service at its in-house chapel.

    Except it’s only for Protestants, not Catholics.

    ETA: And before anyone adds this, I grew up Catholic and know there’s no *mass* on Good Friday, but there is usually a liturgical service that involves the stations of the cross during Tre Ore, etc.

    2
  17. dazedandconfused says:

    @gVOR10:

    Re: This Roundtable meeting answered my question.

    It’s always been about race, and these attitudes fade very slowly, across several generations. Obama was elected probably 3-4 generations before a very large part of this nation might be able to accept a black man as POTUS. Trump shamelessly and stridently represented the back-lash.

    The movie Blazing Saddles had a happy ending. The sheriff accomplished something good and the people rallied around him. A happy fantasy, because the way things really work accomplishments incite more rage, not less. Everything else becomes secondary. Recall the Tea Bagger marching on Washington in outrage over healthcare reform? Seemed so illogical, but it wasn’t.

    With each advance there will be a backlash, but things will not be the same. 100 years ago we would have had most of them openly saying what was bugging them is those negros, today they feel compelled to hide it. Progress.

    2
  18. Gregory Lawrence Brown says:

    A second US Air Force aircraft has crashed in the Middle East.
    An A-10 Warthog ‘tank killer’ reportedly went down in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, around the same time an F-15 fighter jet crashed over Iran.
    Sky News Australia

    1
  19. JohnSF says:

    @charontwo:
    My main question is, where can I score some of what Thiessen is smoking?
    Because that stuff obviously allows you to live in a happy fantasy land.
    And I could really do with that right now.
    But back in sober reality, it’s utterly f@cking delulu.
    To put it mildly.

    Is this guy actually supposed to be serious analyst?
    (Honest question; never heard of the damn fool before now, afaicr.)

    2
  20. JohnSF says:

    @gVOR10:
    De Long generally perceptive on the basics, but overlooking some major aspects of all this.
    There is also the Bab el Mandeb; and the Iranian roles in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
    And the relation of those to refugee pressures on Turkey and Europe.

    The JCPOA was obviously the least-worst route; but would require modifiaction, because Iran was both violating it, and gaming it.
    Hence the (little noted) increasing European annoyance with Iran’s ploys.
    The sensible policy would have been to work from JCPOA to a more intrusive inspection system, to tell Iran to stop playing silly buggers about using a “sub-weapons” level to negotiate acceptance of their support for proxies hitting Israel, and if Iran refused, to assemble an enforcement coalition.
    But Trump just had to bin JCPOA “because Obama”.
    The damn fool that he is.

    3
  21. JohnSF says:

    @Michael Reynolds:
    The problem is, current warships are mostly configured to deal with a relatively few “ship-killer” missiles. Not larger numbers of drones.
    Ironically, a lot of early post-WW2 ships with radar guided AA-guns would likely have been better suited to the task.
    But those we don’t have, right now.
    Oopsie.

    Also ironically, iirc the Iowa class battleships had exactly such, plus the armour capable of shrugging off drone hits.
    So did the Royal Navy Tiger class cruisers, for that matter.
    It will take a fair bit of effort to convert modern destroyer types to be so capable.
    Certainly not in time to effect the current problem in the Straits.

    (A bit of bias here perhaps: I always did love the Tiger class 🙂 )

    Meanwhile, Trump continues to screech his demands for allies to send ships to play “missile sponge” in the Straits.
    F@ck off, Donald.
    There’s not a single allied govenment that will do so, or would survive the parliamentary and popular revolt if they tried.

    3
  22. Slugger says:

    @Sleeping Dog: As I think more about this problem, perhaps the breaking of Enigma codes did as much as any Navy escort ships. BTW, who will pay for the escorts?

    1
  23. JohnSF says:

    @Sleeping Dog:
    An uncle of mine was in the Royal Navy in WW2.
    Served in destroyers on both Malta and Arctic convoy escort runs.
    He was fortunate; he survived both.
    Many did not.
    The Straits of Hormuz look likely to be even worse, if Iranian missile and drone fire cannot be suppressed.
    And how to do that short of a major land force operation looks tricky.

    The Germans never even attempted to try to pass major forces via the Straits of Gibraltar.
    They did do one major speed run via the Dover Straits, and were rather lucky.

    No allied navy is going to stick ships in the Straits to play “missile sponge” to rescue Trump from his folly. Still more when that would do sod all to actually resolve the problem.

    4
  24. Richard Gardner says:

    A few points on his excellency’s budget proposal.

    Navy Shipbuilding budget of $65.8B. Who is going to do the building? The infrastructure isn’t there and everything is behind schedule and throwing more money doesn’t magically add more dry docks to build ships in. The only possible bright spot is Philadelphia Shipyard that was recently acquired by Hanwha of Korea, maybe bringing some Korean “can do” (and refusing change orders?). Meanwhile we’ve all see the ads during baseball games to “Build Submarines” at Electric Boat (General Dynamics) = there also isn’t the skilled manpower, much more skilled needed than in 1944. https://news.usni.org/2026/04/03/pentagons-new-65-8b-shipbuilding-request-is-highest-since-1962

    Alcatraz – our appearance over substance guy wants $152M to turn it back into a prison to “serve as a symbol of law, order, and justice.” $152M is basic planning money (not sure if this is even enough to get to “30% design” – planning for a promenade in my town is $14-17M (about 2 miles @ 12 ft wide) but very complicated with unstable slope issues), zero dollars to actually do anything (est has swelled to over $150M). No water, no sewer (currently barged off – old days just dumped into the Bay). Just a guess is he remembers Ryker’s Island growing up in NYC and thinks island = prison. Plus the movie “Birdman of Alcatrez (played the night before his 1st tweet on the subject). Plus this will “get” Nancy Pelosi. https://www.oann.com/newsroom/trump-seeks-152m-to-rebuild-and-reopen-alcatraz-after-60-years-of-closure/

    This is all “magical thinking” but I’m not sure of the variety, Latin America (100 Years of Solitude) or Hollywood (Field of Dreams). Deus ex machina required (and hope I haven’t mixed my metaphors).

    I’m sure there is some military office (it used to be in Mass. because this is where all the fabric for uniforms came from in 1880) busy designing the campaign ribbon for Epic Fury. I bet you know who will butt in because be knows aesthetics. Will it have some gold?

    2