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Friday’s Forum
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32 responses to “Friday’s Forum”
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With all the talk about AI, I recall this book from 2020. A speculative fiction story of American about 40 years in I’ve recommended it before, but it seems even more relevant (even prophetic?) today.
The Resisters by Gish Jen
From Good Reads:
The time: a not-so-distant future. The place: AutoAmerica. The land: half under water. The Internet–the new face of government–is “Aunt Nettie”: a mix of artificial intelligence, surveillance technology, and pesky maxims. The people have been divided, and no one is happy. The angel-fair “Netted” still have jobs and literally occupy the high ground, while the mostly coppertoned “Surplus” live on swampland if they’re lucky, on the water if they’re not.
The story: To a Surplus couple–he was a professor, she’s still a lawyer–is born a Blasian girl with a golden arm. At two, Gwen is hurling her stuffed animals from the crib; by ten she can hit whatever target she likes with a baseball; her teens find her playing happily in an underground Surplus league. When AutoAmerica re-enters the Olympics-with a special eye on beating ChinRussia–Gwen attracts interest. Soon she’s at Net U, falling in love with her coach and considering “crossing over,” even as her mother is challenging the AutoAmerican Way with lawsuits that will prove very dangerous.
An astonishing story of an America that seems only too possible, and of a family struggling to maintain its humanity in circumstances that threaten their every value–even their very existence.
As a side note. I’m always astonished that some books stick in my head while others quickly disappear. The Why? is always a mystery to me. I ‘ve never discerned a pattern. Example, two other books I’ve read (among many) that I remember are Plainsong by Kent Haruf (1999) and Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny (1967). Then again, I’m not a writer and never will be.
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@Scott: Oh man, loves me some Lord of Light. It is sitting on a bookshelf behind me as I type 🙂
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BTW, what is going on with the Ukraine-Russia War?
Yes, it is still going.
Latest from the Institute for the Study of War:
• Russia and Belarus completed their combined nuclear exercises on May 21, highlighting Russia’s ability to leverage Belarus for future Russian military operations and Russia’s deepening de facto control over Belarus.
• Ukrainian strikes continue to constrain Russian oil refining and energy revenues, even as the war in the Middle East has provided a budget windfall in the short term.
• Russia continues to tap into its gold reserves to cover its budget deficit.
• The Kremlin is attempting to manipulate Russian media coverage to downplay the Kremlin’s censorship campaign, likely to improve the public perception of the United Russia Party ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections.
• Ukrainian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian forces launched one ballistic missile and 116 drones toward Ukraine overnight.
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@Jon: Me too. I couldn’t tell you how many times I’ve reread Lord of Light. And I still find something new each time!
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Oh, goody.
Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, one sign it is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments. Four sources told CNN that US intelligence indicates Iran’s military is reconstituting much faster than initially estimated.
The rebuilding of military capabilities, including replacing missile sites, launchers and production capacity for key weapons systems destroyed during the current conflict, means that Iran remains a significant threat to regional allies should President Donald Trump restart the bombing campaign, according to the four sources familiar with the intelligence. It also calls into question claims about the extent to which US-Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military in the long term.
While the time to restart production of different weapons components varies, some US intelligence estimates indicate Iran could fully reconstitute its drone attack capability in as soon as six months, one of the sources, a US official, told CNN.
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Since Iran dominates the news and ICE hasn’t murdered any white people recently I hadn’t seen much news about ICE and their activities so I missed this one that Foreign Policy provided.
“Ross-Mahé is an 85-year-old French widow who spent 16 days in ICE detention last year after being arrested for overstaying her visa in the wake of her American husband’s death. She was imprisoned under appalling conditions, sometimes shackled at the wrists and ankles, until she was deported back to France. Ross-Mahé and her late husband’s sons had been battling over his estate, and the probate judge in the case accused one of Ross-Mahé’s stepsons of initiating her arrest. The French foreign minister publicly called for her release, criticizing ICE for its harsh enforcement methods.”
When asked about it the ICE spokesperson claimed they were just keeping America safe. Just the tiniest bit of human decency would allow for a widow overstaying a visa. Just the tiniest bit of common sense would make clear you dont need shackles on an 85 y/o woman. ICE, under Trump, has neither of those qualities.
Steve
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The Man in the Mirror
Trump Flips Out At ‘Total Jerk’ Stephen Colbert In 2 A.M. Rant After Final ‘Late Show’
“Colbert is finally finished at CBS,” Trump wrote on Truth Social at 1:52 a.m., about an hour after the “Late Show” finale concluded. “Amazing that he lasted so long! No talent, no ratings, no life. He was like a dead person.”
– No talent?
– No ratings?
– No life?
– Like a dead person?This comment, in itself, convinces me that Trump’s minders set him in front of a TV which they have replaced the screen with a mirror.
I don’t know why Trump “says hello, we say goodbye”
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@Scott: Ukraine has been under constant bombardment for 4 years and keeps making drones so we shouldn’t be surprised at this result. Israel bombed Gaza much more completely than they bombed Iran and Hamas was still fighting.Bombing is great at causing lots of destruction and for focusing on specific targets but rarely that effective at achieving strategic goals alone.
Steve
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But… but… the data!!!!
Data Centers Can Make Neighborhoods Up to 4 Degrees Hotter, Study Finds
The study, published May 18 in the Journal of Engineering for Sustainable Buildings and Cities, measured heat pollution from a 36-megawatt data center in Mesa, Arizona, and a 169-megawatt data center campus in the neighboring city of Chandler. The researchers found that air temperatures downwind of these facilities were up to 4 degrees F (2 degrees C) higher than upwind temperatures. This heat impact extended up to a third of a mile (half a kilometer) out from the perimeter of the data centers.
These findings suggest data centers can compound the urban heat island effect, which is when a city experiences much warmer temperatures than nearby rural areas. This is especially concerning for cities where extreme heat already poses a significant public health risk, like Mesa and Chandler. [..] a single data center can produce more waste heat than 40,000 households.
Knowledge is power. Literally.
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@steve222:
When asked about it the ICE spokesperson claimed they were just keeping America safe.
I know a soon-to-be-80-year-old orangy American whose arrest would truly make America safer, and much less broke.
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@Scott:
Iran rebuilding military industrial base faster than expected, already producing drones, according to US intel
Life will find a way.
I read a piece (sorry no link at the moment), that stated Iran had been planning for a US assault for decades and has created a disbursed and subterranean capability to resist and keep fighting. The country is mountainous and rocky. And as much as I have studied much about the region and traveled/lived in parts of the Middle East, I’ve been chagrined to learn that I had zero perceptions of the daunting, vertiginous Iranian coastline along the Straits of Hormuz. So much so, an attempted surface invasion would make Inchon look like a “walk in the park.” Apparently this aspect didn’t figure too heavily into the early go-no-go strategy session with our President who loudly threatened such actions. No Teddy Roosevelt, Trump speaks loudly and threatens with big schtick.
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@Scott:
With all the talk about AI, I recall this book from 2020. A speculative fiction story of American about 40 years in I’ve recommended it before, but it seems even more relevant (even prophetic?) today.
I’ll have to circle back to that one. But add to your list: “This Perfect Day” by Ira Levin. That was the book that set my young mind upon ” the possibilities” of a not too distant future.
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This is interesting:
http://www.salon.com/2026/05/22/trump-exhaustion-syndrome-is-infecting-the-world/
“A fat man with a bad haircut from America.” Perfect.
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Trump’s pick for surgeon general sells supplement with ingredient banned by Pentagon
Donald Trump’s nominee for surgeon general sells an herbal supplement that contains an ingredient prohibited by the US military and which health experts have warned can cause liver damage.
Dr Nicole Saphier’s record of selling dietary supplements, which are only loosely regulated in the US, has raised concern among doctors and consumer advocates, some of whom allege she sells “snake oil”.
Only the bestest and brightest for sure, zebbahh neighbahs
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Had the SpaceX Starship launch streaming yesterday. Musk’s braver than I am — first Starship V3, first Heavy Booster V3, new Raptor 3 engines throughout, and a new launch tower, all less than a month before the trillion-dollar IPO. Blowing things up really isn’t an option this time. Two 30-minute delays yesterday and then scrubbed because of a problem with the tower. Same launch window for another try today.
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Wife and I just came back from early voting in the primary runoffs. On the Democratic side there was nothing terribly important or urgent to vote for. But, as I explained to my kids back in the day, and now to my adult children, voting is part of your civic duty. Do it even if you are not excited about the candidates and/or issues.
As an aside, my big beef with Texas voting is that, because of history, there are a lot of positions to vote for that are purely administrative positions that have very few political components. If I were king, I would turn those positions into hired ones and shrink the ballot down to something more comprehensible and understandable. I think it would help increase the voting participation.
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Blowing things up really isn’t an option this time.
But that’s what Xtarship does best!
Or at least what it does most.
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@Michael Cain: When Gene Kranz told the Apollo 13 ground staff, “Failure is not an option.”, it was great motivation. It was not a statement of fact.
Musk may have good reason to be completely confident that Starship will have a successful launch. Or he may just be delusional and rolling the dice ahead of the IPO
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@gVOR10:
He never actually said that*.
But that’s a minor quibble. He made it clear they’d do whatever they had to do to bring the crew back safely, which was the entire point. The line was made up for the movie, reasonably so. Kranz then used it as the title for his memoir.
What really stands out to me is what he said after the Apollo 1 fire that killed three astronauts. I don’t have the exact quote, but the gist is that mission control was responsible for everything and had to improve constantly.
Consider the pad test involved no fuel, and planned no movement of any kind. The fire was a result of bad design from North American, who built the command module; especially a hatch that was too difficult to open. Moreover, Kranz wasn’t even on duty when the fire took place.
*On the other hand, Adam Savage did say, numerous times, “failure is always an option on Mythbusters.”
They were both right.
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@Scott:
Our primary ballot was very simple—five races, each with a single unopposed candidate (or write-in). And then a list of party state committee candidates, from which the voter could choose several. It took me less than a minute in the voting cubicle Tuesday morning, but the Bruce Springsteen concert that evening lasted almost three hours. -
@Scott: I have a friend that moved to Houston from Miami, and he told me a tale about deciding who to vote for for Railroad Commissioner. He noted that despite the name, they have some energy management responsibilities, too. Charming, but also kind of a WTF?
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@Kathy: I just looked this up, and it’s a very interesting little tale. Kranz didn’t say it at the time, that’s certain. He said to the filmmakers when they interviewed him to prep for the film that when bad things happened in Mission Control: “We just calmly laid out the options; and failure was not one of them …” This was transformed by scriptwriters.
Thing is, though, Kranz love it, thought it reflected their attitude well, and used it as the name of his memoir
I once was acquainted with a woman who had done PR for Sun Microsystems. Their president Scott McNealy, was famous for saying kind of out-there things in the press, the most famous of which was “You have no privacy, get over it.”
I asked about, and my friend confirmed, that Scott did not write all those things he said himself. But they show him the press release and he approves it, therefore he said it. Or maybe he tweaked it a bit. And he said it.
So yes, Gene Kranz said that, just not at any moment during the Apollo 13 mission.
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Tulsi Gabbard has submitted her resignation as the director of the national intelligence, a White House official and senior administration official told MS NOW.
She is stepping down to support her husband as he battles a rare form of bone cancer, the White House official said.
Effective June 30, 2026. -
…and he told me a tale about deciding who to vote for for Railroad Commissioner. He noted that despite the name, they have some energy management responsibilities, too. Charming, but also kind of a WTF?
It’s been a long time since I was living in Texas and heard the story from long-time Texans, but it was a place to put Northern carpetbaggers after the Civil War and deny a bunch of power to the Governor.
For a long time the Railroad Commission set production limits on oil companies in Texas (and Oklahoma tagged along) to provide price stability. It was almost certainly unconstitutional, but the alternative had been really ugly. The end of that as a serious influence was during the first Arab oil crisis: the Commission said “open it up” to offset the Arabs’ reduced production and… nothing happened. The days of glory for the East Texas oil fields was done.
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XpaceS prospectus contains such charming items like:
One passage in the prospectus discloses that xAI’s Grok chatbot, especially its “spicy” and “unhinged” modes, present a heightened risk of creating numerous harms including “the generation of potentially explicit content and misinformation or deceptive outputs, potential nonconsensual or exploitative imagery, intellectual property infringement, or content that could be viewed as exploitative, harmful, harassing, abusive, or discriminatory”.
The prospectus also states that the company is the subject of numerous domestic and international law enforcement investigations and inquiries related to allegations of Grok creating nonconsensual images.
I can remember when such things would have caused investors to run for the hills.
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@Flat Earth Luddite: Hey, she was recommended by Dr Oz. What would you expect?
@Kathy: @Kathy: Think you win the internet today.
Final thought of the day. Ebola is spreading again in Africa. Doesnt it make you feel good that we have such a giant in health care in charge if we face an Ebola pandemic? Oz and Saphier can make miracle pills and we will be great.
Steve
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The latest Xtarship didn’t blow up.
It lost one engine on the booster, and one on the upper stage. It didn’t reach the right trajectory, either.
So Commander Ivanova can still be quoted: “No boom today.”
I know it’s hard to design, build, test, launch, and operate a new type of rocket. But, still, that was true of other revolutionary designs like the Saturn V, the Shuttle, the SLS even, not to mention the Xalcon 9, and few took several explosions, mishaps, breakups, and other types of failures before they were operational.
About the only other rocket I can think of that even comes close is the Soviet N1 moon rocket, which blew up on four out of four launch attempts (a perfect record!)
I’m sure Xtarship will eventually fly, get into orbit, and deploy satellites. It may even be fully reusable. But I wouldn’t bet a penny on a successful Xtarship lunar lander, which would require as many as 12 Xtarship launches plus orbital refueling. I’d bet against it being successful not just by 2028, but by 2035.
Hm. I should check the prediction casino sites…
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@Kathy:
They lost one of the Starship engines on the way up, so didn’t reach the intended altitude or velocity. An amazing thing happened on reentry, though. After passing through maximum heating, the vehicle climbed and maintained speed, and got back onto the intended course. None of the previous tests have demonstrated anything like that. Did the intended banking maneuver and arrived smack on target where they had a dozen cameras recording. Hovered and showed enough lateral control for a future “catch”. None of the signs of heat-related problems with the tiles or control surfaces evident on prior flights. Starship V3 appears to be a huge step up from V2.And a KA-BOOM when they let it tip over at the very end, with a nice fireball :^)
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@Scott:
Interesting datum I came across (lost linky, apologies):
US is pushing Ukraine to transfer drone tech with full IPR re networking, detection, etc to US.
Ukraine is telling US to get lost; they will license on their terms.
And also asking in return for US tech data on Patriot systems and missiles.
I’ve said it before: neither Russia nor, it seems, the US, really appreciate the military/technical/industrial capability of Ukraine.
Ethiopia it ain’t.
Combine that with the financial and industrial resources of Europe dedicated to supporting Ukraine, and Europe plus Ukraine have the potential to move to full strategic/technological separation from the US.Elbridge Colby and J.D. Vance may come to have cause to regret their assumptions.
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