Gas Prices Up 50% Since War Started
Making an unpopular war less popular.
AP (“Gasoline costs “50% more in the US than it did before the Iran war“):
The price of a gallon of regular gasoline climbed 31 cents in the past week, spiking to an average of $4.48 per gallon Tuesday, according to AAA, hitting the wallets of drivers after rising 50% since the war with Iran began.
The main reason drivers are paying more at the pump is because of the global energy crisis caused by the Iran war. The price of crude oil, which is the main ingredient in gasoline, has been climbing for most of the past two months because the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil normally passes, has effectively been shut, and oil tankers have been stranded there unable to deliver crude.
OTB readers of course know all this. As I’ve noted many times over the years, we’re all acutely aware of gasoline prices in a way that we’re not for any other commodity, both because it’s something we buy with regularity and because, unlike any other product I can think of, the price is in giant numbers visible from the street so we can comparison shop while driving.
In my personal experience, prices are up more than 50 percent. The station where I refuel most frequently, both because it’s almost always considerably cheaper than others and because I pass it on my morning commute, was at $2.33/gallon for cash customers the day before the war kicked off. It was $3.97 when I filled up yesterday morning. It was $4.07 when I drove past on my way home. That’s exactly a 75 percent hike.
AP provides this handy graph to illustrate the spike:
Because Americans feel this acutely, incumbents, and especially Republicans, will likely be punished for this in November. And rightly so, since this was a war entirely of the Trump administration’s choosing and the consequences were predictable and, indeed, predicted.
As always, when looking at gas prices, some perspective is in order. Because we’re so acutely aware of price fluctuations, we can get fixated on nominal prices. That’s especially true for those of us old enough to remember when gas was well under a dollar.
Here’s the Energy Department’s tracking of gas prices going back to 1950:
So, not only is $4.48 considerably higher than it was before the war, it’s actually expensive in inflation-adjusted dollars. It’s considerably higher than during the 1973 OPEC oil embargo and comparable to levels during the 1980 embargo. Indeed, only during short-lived spikes in 2008, 2014, and 2023 did the real cost exceed its current level.
At least egg prices are down.
UPDATE: Statista data journalist Felix Richter, writing in mid-April, adds this additional perspective:
[A]s bad as a trip to the gas station might feel these days, gasoline is actually more affordable now than it was for large parts of the late 2000s and the early 2010s. To find out how “affordable” gasoline really is, we divided the average national price of gasoline by the average hourly earnings of U.S. workers, and it turns out that things aren’t as bad as they seem. At the current price of more than $4 per gallon, Americans have to work 7.7 minutes to afford a gallon of gas. That’s far below the 10.7 minutes needed in June 2022 and almost exactly the 21st century average. Admittedly, gasoline was more affordable in the 1990s, when Americans had to work little more than 5 minutes for one gallon of gas, but looking at the past 25 years, the current price is nothing extraordinary when taking wage growth into account.
He provides this handy graphic:
It’s also worth noting that prices in the U.S. are some of the lowest in the world. In the EU, for example, the average price as of late March was over $7 a gallon, mostly owing to extremely high taxes.
Yep.
$2.30 vs $3.63 at my local Costco for me. That’s 58%.
Up 5 cents since Friday.
Brent oil is down about 11% in pre-opening trading. Based on Project Freedom being paused or ended plus something Trump said – IOW totally absurd, considering the nature/effectiveness of Project Freedom and the “reliability” of Trump pronouncements.
It’s Biden’s fault!
$2.30 vs. $4.99 here. A few counties west it just hit $6.
@Neil Hudelson: Interesting how the Trump war gas tax is hitting sections of the country differently. Midwest seems to be particularly hit hard.
Here in northeast Massachusetts, it’s $3.89.
According to my research, the last time people were ok with more expensive gasoline was never.
This is the kind of spin that makes people hate politicians – “who ya gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?” How many extra minutes the average worker has to work to pay for a gallon of gas is the kind of post hoc nonsense that comes from a think tank as a lifeline to apologists for a failed policy choice. The bottom line here is the cost of gas is dramatically higher because Trump started a war that didn’t need to be started. Period. Full stop. It’s an insult to everyone’s intelligence to concoct some bullshit comparison, label it “affordability,” and then offer it as a balm to Americans’ wounded wallet.
I’ve been worried that we are overplaying the gas price rise. It’s very hard on families already holding on by their fingernails, but it isn’t exactly the casus belli of a new revolution.
OTOH, this may just be the start. Chevron just yesterday announced that we would now start to experience actual shortages.
I love my little Nissan Leaf. Haven’t bought gas since I sold my gas cars almost three years ago. My wife and I share the Leaf for going around town daily, and my wife’s Beamer ragtop is for long road trips. She filled it up in February and it still has a quarter tank left. That’s how rarely we drive it. Its a 2020 and has less than 17K miles on it.
In the DR I have a KIA Ionic 6, which allows me to drive across the island, round trip, on one charge. Having an electric car is an absolute joy right now, given current gas prices.
The worst part for us is that several (3) sets of friends who were primed to come visit us this summer on road trips from Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota have all cancelled their trips due to gas prices. With the prices rising, and no sign of letting up, they cannot afford the road trips.
Sucks for them, and us.
It’s hard to believe the < $0.50 a gallon gas I put in my MG B in my first job out of college really cost about the same as last year. That's money illusion. Biden and the Dems paid a price for inflation. And it would only be fair for Trump and the GOPs to also pay a price. Biden brought inflation down, although voters, abetted by the supposedly liberal MSM, didn't seem to know it. Trump was elected mostly on promises to reduce prices. So people really should feel a sense of betrayal.
Note that the only way to bring prices down, as opposed to halting inflation, is recession. So Trump's promise was kind of stupid. Oh well, at least he's consistent.
@Michael Reynolds:
Disagree strongly. For families – even MAGA ones – who baely scrape by every month, NOTHING is more important right now than gas prices. Three friends of ours – who aren’t necessarily struggling, but are on fixed incomes – have said flat out that gas prices are causing them to rethink everything they do. Gone are the days where they’ll just run to Home Depot for something small. Gone are the days where they run to the grocery store for some milk and eggs only. Every trip is thought about now. Those of us who live in cities can forget how much driving rural working class folks actually do. Speaking to friends in rural Georgia yesterday, I was surprised by how angry they are at the gas prices because their monthly budget is up $300 on gas alone, not to mention the rest of inflation.
Headline in Politico:
Diesel price spike raises stakes for Trump, GOP ahead of midterms
@Charley in Cleveland: I don’t think he’s in any way trying to justify the war or the price spike caused by initiating it. He’s just, quite rightly, pointing out that a gallon of gas takes considerably less out of our pockets than it has historically.
More generally, most of us have a tendency to establish a “correct” price for something (a gallon of gas, a vending machine soda, a dozen eggs, a movie ticket, an automobile, a 3-bedroom house, etc.) in our head and complain when it goes up, while ignoring overall inflation, including that of our earnings. It can work the other way for things we don’t buy very often. For example, a lot of (most?) people my age have no idea how much college tuition has gone up since we went to school and therefore are out of sync on the debate on school loans.
By historical standards, today’s gas prices aren’t particularly high. Nowhere near what gas cost in the mid 80’s adjusted for inflation. The populace is dissatisfied and it will squak about everything.
@Sleeping Dog: Sure. But, even though they’re about at a “normal” rate, they’re decidedly higher than they have to be. The 70% extra I’m paying right now is entirely a function of a war of choice.
@Kathy:..the last time people were ok with more expensive gasoline was never.
When I worked at a the local, independent Wides Oil Company gas station in Carbondale IL (1972-’73) regular leaded gasoline cost 35.9¢-39.9¢/gal. When gas was headed towards 99.9¢/gal in the late 70s I heard more than a few people say: “If gas ever gets to $1 a gallon I’ll walk.” None of them ever did. They all kept driving and bitchin’.
I think the first time that I paid $1 for a gallon of gas was in December of 1979.
@Gregory Lawrence Brown: That 1979 dollar has inflated to $4.55 in 2026 dollars. So, the national average right now is almost exactly the same as it was then.
@Sleeping Dog: @James Joyner: Americans do love to complain, hence why the party in power usually becomes more or less unpopular, quickly. But in this case, the vexation is justified.
Through the 70s into the early 80s, one could still buy the median price house on salary at or slightly above minimum wage in the US. Today, min wage would need to be $60-$70 an hour for that to hold true. Most Americans in 2026 are not near making ~$130,000+ in yearly income.
Fuel costs being similar to way back when adjusted for inflation is cold comfort when other necessities are now so expensive and remuneration so low that gas takes a relatively bigger bite out of budgets.
Having budgets busted stupid tariffs and an unnecessary war is legitimately infuriating, especially when the incompetents are simultaneously cutting healthcare and earmarking $1b for a gaudy ballroom.
Today’s Sleepytown regular unleaded/gal. gas price per Gasbuddy:
1 station $5.209
1 station $5.119
6 stations $5.009
1 station $4.809
In the People’s Democratic Socialist Republic of Seattle, gas prices are up a bit less as a percentage, since we have heavy gas taxes. $6.49 at a random place near me. A paltry 44% more than the $4.50 some random website said I was paying a few months ago.
Weirdly, our regressive tax structure might help buffer things for the poor, since they are already used to paying a small fortune. If I knew any poor people I could ask them.
Just wait for the feed-through of US and global food price increases due to shortages of diesel fuel and fertiliser.
The impact in the US is likely to be noticeable. The efffects in some poor and food-marginal countries in Africa and Asia could be utterly awful.
@James Joyner: I think that is key. We didnt cause Russia to invade Ukraine or cause the Arab Spring. In this case it is is voluntary inflation. The other key factors I believe is that this is occurring so soon after the last bout of gas prices increasing. The wounds were still raw for a lot of people and Trump had promised to lower prices beginning on his first day of office.
Steve
@JohnSF:
Yep, people are going to starve because of this clusterfuck.
I’m spending most of the summer in Portugal. I thank the gods that it’s not worse. The Portuguese are nice people and may continue to wait on us even as a recession caused by my President begins to take hold. The French, though? Or your people? Acid scorn from a Frog, cold contempt from a Brit.
Election night eighteen years ago, driving around Florence with our American license plates and an Obama sticker, Italians were slowing to wave and honk and the whole world loved us.