I’ve just received an email from the folks at the political stock market Intrade with the subject: “Intrade Political Newsflash – Giuliani Has Just Overtaken McCain as Frontrunner for GOP Nomination!”

I couldn’t find a link online to the data [Update: LINK], but the email included this nifty graph of the trading results:

Then again, regular OTB readers know this is old news:

• Rudy Giuliani, Not John McCain, 2008 Republican Frontrunner (July 24, 2006)

For those who missed that one (for shame!) I reiterated it more recently:

• Clinton and Giuliani 2008 Frontrunners (January 18, 2007)
• Republican Frontrunner: McCain or Giuliani? (February 21, 2007)

I’m still not convinced that either man will emerge as the nominee but I agree with Michael Brandon McClellan that Giuliani has alienated the base less, despite almost certainly being further from them ideologically, than McCain.