Outside the Beltway

Greenspan Sees 1/3rd Probability of Recession

Steve Verdon
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Former Fed Chairman Greenspan has put the probability of a recession in 2007 at 1/3rd.

March 6 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said there’s a “one-third probability” of a U.S. recession this year and the current expansion won’t have the staying power of its decade-long predecessor.

“We are in the sixth year of a recovery; imbalances can emerge as a result,” Greenspan, 81, said in an interview yesterday at his office in downtown Washington. “Ten-year recoveries have been part of a much broader global phenomenon. The historically normal business cycle is much shorter” and is likely to be this time, he added.

Wow, and I thought I was on the pessimistic side! This seems like a fairly high probability of recesssion. Sure the housing and auto-industry are not doing great, but so far there appears to be little spill over into the rest of the economy.

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8 responses to “Greenspan Sees 1/3rd Probability of Recession”

  1. Edgardo Avatar
    Edgardo

    Greenspan continues to recycle his nonsense predictions. You should ask him what is his probability of recession for a normal year, otherwise you don’t know how abnormal this year is. Giving his thinking about the economy, you should also ask him about the probability of a recession for the next two years, three years and so on, and more important for which period the probability is close to one. How much are you willing to pay for this kind of advice?

  2. davod Avatar
    davod

    He is talking the stock market down. Just in time for the election season.

  3. Triumph Avatar
    Triumph

    Former Fed Chairman Greenspan has put the probability of a recession in 2007 at 1/3rd.

    I am putting the probability of Greenspan acting like a normal retired person and limiting his pronouncements to where you can get a good early-bird all-you-can eat fish dinner at 0.

  4. Pat Avatar
    Pat

    Greenspan should STFU. His wife should do the opposite.

    Carter/Clinton/Greenspan making political/economic pronouncements after they are out of office is most unbecoming.

  5. Rick DeMent Avatar
    Rick DeMent

    Sure the housing and auto-industry are not doing great, but so far there appears to be little spill over into the rest of the economy.

    As long as they keep pumping 300 to 500 billion into the economy in borrowed cash every year I would be suprised as well.

  6. Bandit Avatar
    Bandit

    He now consults the magic 8 ball before making any announcements

  7. Steven Plunk Avatar
    Steven Plunk

    I agree with many here that he should stop this nonsense of speaking out. For years fortunes relied on his pronouncements and he was held is such high esteem. Now that he is no longer chair of the Fed he should realize what damage his words can do. With great power comes great responsibility and he needs to learn it.

    Bernake should ask him to tone it down or as Pat said STFU.

  8. Corey Avatar
    Corey

    Today’s 250 pt market meltdown is further proof of a housing-driven recession. More details on my blog at http://infohype.blogspot.com

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