In the wake of the shootings in Newtown, Connecticut that resulted in the death of 27 people, most of them elementary school students at Sandy Hook Elementary School, national support for some form of gun control laws spiked to levels that had not been seen in quite some time. Among the most widely supported were some form of expansion of background checks at the Federal level that would close certain loopholes that allowed guns to be sold at gun shows and transferred between individuals without a background check taking place. That resulted in an effort in the Senate to pass just such a bill, led by Democratic Senator Joe Manchin and Republican Senator Pat Toomey. That effort failed, of course, and there were some observers who thought there would be some political consequences for the failure of Republicans to support the bill given the high level of public support for the idea. As it turned out, that backlash has failed to materialize, and indeed wasn’t even in evidence in the immediate aftermath of the defeat of the bill. At the time, I noted that this wasn’t entirely surprising given the fact that, while some gun control proposals have generally always been supported by the public, the entire issue of gun control was a low priority issue for most Americans and not one that was likely to motivate them to vote against politicians who went against their wishes on the issue.
As I explained at the time, this largely explained the fact that politicians did not seem especially concerned with voting contrary to majority opinion on the issue because, while it was a low priority issue among American who supported things like background checks, it was a high priority among opponents of those provisions and those voters were far more likely to be single issue voters on the issue of gun control than the public as a whole. This distinction between high support and low priority was borne out by polling in the months after Newtown. By July, we saw that gun control as an issue had largely faded from the mind of the average American, and by the one year anniversary of the shootings last December public support for most types of gun control had eeturned to the relatively low levels of support and concern that they were in before the shootings. All of this was, of course, consistent with the idea supported by polling that goes back years that gun control is not a high priority issue for the vast majority of Americans.
Now, as we approach the second anniversary of the Newtown tragedy, a Gallup poll finds that support for gun control measures has fallen even more:
Less than half of Americans, 47%, say they favor stricter laws covering the sale of firearms, similar to views found last year. But this percentage is significantly below the 58% recorded in 2012 after the school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, spurred a nationwide debate about the possibility of more stringent gun control laws. Thirty-eight percent of Americans say these laws should be kept as they are now, and 14% say they should be made less strict.
The percentage favoring stricter gun sale laws in the two years since Newtown occurred has declined despite steady and tragic high-profile shootings in the U.S at schools, malls and businesses. This past week, shootings occurred at a Seattle-area school and of police officers in Sacramento and Placer County, California. Amidst events like these in 2014, and the resulting calls for stricter gun sale laws, the 47% who favor stricter laws is just above the historical low of 43% measured in 2011.
Ten years ago, three in five Americans (60%) said they favored stricter laws regulating the sale of firearms, but support fell to 44% in 2009 and remained at that level in polls conducted in the next two years. Days after the Newtown shooting, support for stricter gun sale laws swelled. Since 2012, however, Americans have retreated from those stronger attitudes about the need for more gun control, and the percentage of Americans who say the laws should be less strict — although still low — has edged up.
The percentage favoring stricter gun sale laws in the two years since Newtown occurred has declined despite steady and tragic high-profile shootings in the U.S at schools, malls and businesses. This past week, shootings occurred at a Seattle-area school and of police officers in Sacramento and Placer County, California. Amidst events like these in 2014, and the resulting calls for stricter gun sale laws, the 47% who favor stricter laws is just above the historical low of 43% measured in 2011.
Ten years ago, three in five Americans (60%) said they favored stricter laws regulating the sale of firearms, but support fell to 44% in 2009 and remained at that level in polls conducted in the next two years. Days after the Newtown shooting, support for stricter gun sale laws swelled. Since 2012, however, Americans have retreated from those stronger attitudes about the need for more gun control, and the percentage of Americans who say the laws should be less strict — although still low — has edged up.
As this chart shows, the post-Newtown increase in support for new laws now looks like a statistical blip, and the longer term trend shows American support for new gun control laws trending downward:
More interestingly, demographic breakdowns show support declining among nearly all demographic groups:
And, we are at thTe point where nearly three-quarters of Americans oppose the idea of banning or more strictly regulating handgun sales:
At the time of the Newtown tragedy, there were some who suggested that the gun debate in the United States had reached a turning point in the gun debate and, for a time, it seemed as though that might be true. What we’ve seen instead, is a return to historic norms on the issue, and more importantly no indication that the Senators who voted against things like the Manchin-Toomey proposal would pay a political price for doing so. If anything, the political price was paid by supporters of greater gun control, as recall elections against the people who originated gun control bills in Colorado seem to demonstrate quite aptly. Now, it seems like the trend of public opinion has returned to where it was before Adam Lanza went on his insane rampage. Advocates of stricter gun control may not like that, but that appears to be political reality in the United States.
