Happy Fourth of July! Forum
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Appreciate the sentiment, but is it a “happy” 4th of July? I think not. Always loved and revered this country. Not now. Certainly not now. Pains me to say, but I think we all know it’s true. We’re a failed supposedly constitutional republic where everything we stood for in macro theory wass until recently a goal at least, until now. Now we’re reverting back to true, 18th century legalese – a power game of the connected instead of an equality striving for all. I won’t “celebrate” insomuch as have a burger and a beer with friends and family. But there will be no toasts to the current USA.
Happy 4th of July. Freedom for me but not for thee.
Trump says no progress on Ukraine in call with Putin
Putin is just thumbing his nose at Trump. He knows Trump only punches down.
Trump, at a 4th of July rally in Iowa, admits that he hates over half of the country.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1940932231221932507
Got an email this morning from the Social Security Administration hailing passage of the BBB, crowing about the 90% of SS money that will no longer be taxed. SSA quoted the stooge Trump put in charge:
We’re gonna need a new word for sycophant. Is it too early for a shot of bourbon?
@Charley in Cleveland: I’m on Social Security. Over 70, so I’m collecting. But to be honest, I fail to see how this “protects Social Security” . It runs down the trust fund faster. As far as I can see, it incentivizes working seniors (over 65) to collect earlier rather than delay delay pulling benefits. It does nothing for seniors where SS is the main source of income and don’t work or just work at low income jobs.
Since I also pull a pension and my wife still works, I will be a beneficiary. Maybe. Since we take the standard deduction, I’m not sure how this tax change will be mechanized.
@Scott:
@Charley in Cleveland:
It’s all bullshit. Nothing but a temporary tax cut for some seniors.
@Charley in Cleveland: @Scott: Should have done some research before replying to Charley. Here is an explanatory article.
Tax break for seniors: Trump bill includes additional $6,000 deduction
@Charley in Cleveland: I got that email too. It was eye-rolling in both tone and content.
“I’m a Yankee Doodle Dandy
A Yankee Doodle do or die
A real life nephew of my Uncle Sam
Born on the fourth of July”
(George M. Cohan)
Have a great and safe Fourth!
@Scott:
I’d have to go review my taxes, but I doubt I’ll see any benefit.
@Scott:
What trust fund? The government has used SS to pay for other things than benefits.
I still remember the days in the 1980s when politicians like Claude Pepper talked about SS lockboxes. My view back then was it is a bunch of mularkey.
BTW I’m 64 and collecting my SS benefits as is my 63 year old wife. We both paid in.
Happy 4th of July from the US Virgin Islands. It is carnival time down here. Yesterday was the anniversary of when slavery was abolished in the islands.
Dear Wife and I return to the BVI tomorrow before traveling home to Florida on Monday.
Is a wake a kind of celebration?
@Scott: Hegseth halted weapons for Ukraine despite military analysis that the aid wouldn’t jeopardize U.S. readiness
Trump and his administration are a pack of liars.
just nutha – I understand now. You thought my comment yesterday about your confirmation bias was a reference to an older discussion about confirmation bias, so you made a comment about data, which was a seeming non sequitur in the discussion we were having yesterday about data, but was a reference to another older discussion about data. Even though I explained what I meant.
@Bill Jempty: FYI: Policy Basics: Understanding the Social Security Trust Funds.
Several years ago in photos of one of the European air shows, I came across a photo of a private jet with the Interjet logo on the tail. I spent some time online looking for what it could possibly be used for, and came up empty. I thought maybe it was used to ferry airline executives around to places not served by the airline, like Europe.
Today on the way to work I was listening to the Captains Speaking podcast (yeah, I’m hooked), and one of the hosts casually mentioned the private jets owned by the airline he flies for (Ryanair, though they often don’t mention the name). The other host went on to explain these are mostly used to ferry spare parts and mechanics and/or engineers to outstations where a mainline plane may have issues, and where the airline has no personnel or stocks of parts based there.
They claim this is common practice for several airlines. The sense is that these small jets can take off on short notice, and prevent the need to displace cargo or passengers from regular flights, or even to add stops to regular flights as well. Also they are convenient if a plane had to divert to an airport the airline does not serve at all.
So, that might be what the Interjet corporate plane was for. Even if it was also used to get executives to the air show.
@Charley in Cleveland: “Small print? They don’t even read the large print!”
@Kathy: In New Orleans maybe.
I see that we’re going to have UFC fights at the White House. How about mud wrestling? Hotties in bikinis wrestling in mud and the President gets to hose off the winners. That would be totally cool! Who would not love that.
If this is the old @Tyrell it’s been quite a while since you last commented! Welcome back.
If this is a new Tyrell, welcome!
The story behind “America The Beautiful”:
https://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2025/07/03/july-4-declaration-of-independence-250-anniversary-united-states-john-de-graaf
@Scott:
Hegseth halted weapons and Trump talked to Putin just before Russia unleashed a massive attack on Kyiv. Our Nazi party is selling out Democracy in Eastern Europe.
@Steven L. Taylor: Point taken but I also read a long time ago (Almanac of American politics maybe) how SS funds are sometimes used.
@Steven L. Taylor: Your link notes the SS trust fund is invested in federal securities, regarded by all as the safest investment. I read somewhere there’s actually a file cabinet in an SS facility, IIRC somewhere in Kentucky, stuffed with very large denomination paper bonds.
The link adds,
We’re going to fritter away four years of that available ten. And re the safe investments, Trump may also fritter away our “full faith and credit”.
Republicans want two things very badly. First, they want to be seen as protecting SS. Second, they want to destroy SS. Or maybe just seriously cut it, or privatize it. (Jamie Dimon must weep every time he thinks of that huge pile of money that JP Morgan has no hooks in.) The plan is to do nothing until 2035, then be, ever so reluctantly, forced by unforeseen circumstances, to gut SS.
@Slugger:
In the former Rose Garden?
@Steven L. Taylor:For your reading-
Disproving the notion of a Social Security trust fund ‘lockbox’
This type of legal action needs to be done in volume. And in every type of court. A few lawsuits to specific individuals wouldn’t hurt also.
U.S. citizen seeks $1M after arrest, detention for recording immigration raid at Home Depot
In Iowa yesterday, Trump said he calls Melania “First Lady” because it reminds him that he’s president.
I wish I could forget.
@Scott:
Unless there are civil or criminal consequences for individuals, I’m afraid there’s no incentive for DHS/ICE to avoid this behavior. They just got their ICE funding multiplied several times over, and it means nothing to them for “the government” to be on the hook for a $1 million civil settlement, or a thousand such settlements. I’m not saying that there can’t be individual consequences, but we shouldn’t expect ICE to discipline their employees for this behavior.
Many happy returns, rebels though ye remain… 😉
@Charley in Cleveland:
Take your cue from the short-lived show Stumptown:
Another case of Trump hiring only the best:
Trump US attorney who is prosecuting Democrats now at risk of losing her law license
The complaint was supported by several text messages suggesting that in the summer of 2021, Habba befriended Alice Bianco, a 21-year-old waitress who had just hired an employment attorney to pursue a sexual harassment case.
The texts indicate that Habba criticized Bianco’s original lawyer and offered to represent her instead. She ultimately drafted a nondisclosure agreement for $15,000, according to the report.
Gee, I wonder if Habba mentioned her connection to Trump, the owner of the golf club. Even after all these years I’m still surprised how almost every single person in Trump’s circle is a sleazebag.
@Scott: Passionately ambivalent about the issue as a whole, but I am struck by the irony that the primary reason this rule impacts to my benefit is because I have an investment portfolio that on good years roughly doubles my total income and year-on-year has returns larger than my other pension.
Yeah, it’s definitely another pseudo middle class tax cut. But that’s fair, given that we have only a pseudo middle class anymore.
ETA: On the other hand, I’m just fine with the “high income seniors not benefiting at all” part. They don’t need to win on every element of the tax bill anyway.
Haven’t seen this mentioned here, but at his Iowa rally yesterday, trump said…
That, for the few (<0.2%) very wealthy people who would owe estate tax, and also to burnish his credentials as a bigot. Wonder if that was on the teleprompter.
@Lucysfootball:
Who else would work for Trump but a sleazebag?
@Tyrell: TYRELL! It’s been ages! We’ve been wondering how you’re doing. Good to see you’re still with us. Have a happy 4th!
@Scott:
@Daryl:
If this doesn’t cause Europe to wake and smell the damn coffee, nothing will.
I might note, not a squeak from Secretary Hegseth about any impact on US stocks of supplies to Israel.
I might note that for all the calls for Europeans to increase defence spending, there has been considerable US diplomatic lobbying over the past decade to discourage general European purchases of the Franco/Italian SAMP/T instead of Patriot.
For instance, Germany excluded SAMP/T from the ESSI (“European Sky Shield Initiative”) they are leading, a move widely seen as an attempt to gain favour in Washington.
Similarly, the UK recent moves to possibly obtaining F-35A (in addition to the existing F-35B) and US B61-12 free-fall nuclear bombs.
When it would make far more sense, if the RAF gets the F-35A, to mate them to the French ASMPA-R stand-off missile and a French/UK warhead.
Except that gets nul points in DC.
As does the Airbus AEW project, for that matter, which is not received with much joy by Pentagon/US aerospace folks.
@gVOR10: “The plan is to do nothing until 2035”
That looks to be the case. From the SSA email, the statement “this legislation reaffirms President Trump’s promise to protect Social Security” is straight out of the Ministry of Truth.
The Understanding the Social Security Trust Funds link has a good explainer, but it does assume good faith efforts to protect Social Security…
One factor that people may take into account when deciding at what age to begin drawing their Social Security retirement benefit is the likelihood that they will receive 100% of their planned benefit throughout retirement. As our politics make this less likely, I agree with @Scott: that is incentivizes many people to begin collecting their benefits earlier.
@Slugger:
Given that the President gets to hose off the winners? Probably the hotties in bikinis. Even hos and sluts have standards, ya kno.
@gVOR10:
And an excellent and cunning plan doubtless.
But if Trump does not stop f@cking about with the Fed, with trade and the related dollar-recycling system, and the “wish upon a star” economic boom does not materialise (imuho, fat chance), the bond markets may well lose patience WAY sooner than 2035.
@Slugger:
Once a WWF kayfabe berker, always a WWF kayfabe barker.
I genuinely think Trump’s fake wrestling alignment explains LOT about his behaviour and rhetoric.
Truly a Commodus for our times.
“Are you not entertained?”
@Kathy:
In Ireland, sort of, traditionally.
Mourning and celebration, sadness and humour and getting rather drunk, combined.
It’s very Irish.
@JohnSF:
I’ve heard of this custom, but the only wakes I’ve been to on behalf of people of Irish ancestry have been subdued, civilized affairs. No booze. That may be the New England influence, of course.
@CSK:
Must be. 😉
Though, it appears the celebration of the wake varied a lot.
It was originally a sort of vigil, and often remained so in rural Ireland.
The more, umm, boisterous, celebratory variant seems to have developed more in Dublin and the emigrant traditions.
Though it has some connections with the older still traditions of the “funeral feast”.
@JohnSF:
That reminds me of a joke: A noisy, celebratory wake in Dublin was getting rather crowded, so it was decided to move the coffin to a corner of the room to clear space. One of the guests thought it would be appropriate to rest the coffin on some seats. So he asked a couple of guys with drinks in their hands if he could have three chairs for the corpse.
“Certainly,” they replied. “Hip hip hooray, hip, hip hooray, hip, hip hooray.”
@Scott:
I suspect Putin skillfully guided Trump into believing the soonest end to this war (and thereby being able to brag about ending is) is for Ukraine to concede to Russia’s demands, which can only be accomplished by Ukraine being in a bad way militarily.
Trump knows he can’t openly say he is doing that though.
@dazedandconfused:
Oh, Trump said a year or so ago that the way to end the war was to “give Russia what it wants.” His words.
@dazedandconfused:
That’s been the “realist” position since day 1.
And adopted in their various ways by the alt-left “campists” and various alt-right types.
The latter groups especially obsessed with blaming “NATO agression” and/or “Ukrainain nazis” for the origins of the war, and arguing that either the US should revert to isolationism and/or cultivate alliance with Russia.
All such seem unable to grasp that Ukraine has agency in this.
And are not inclined to submit to Russian dominion, which is what all Russian “peace terms” to date amount to.
For that matter, the rest of Europe also is increasingly aware of a divergence of shared perceived interests from the US re Ukraine, and other things also.
And also tend to totally misread the motivations and goals of the Russian governing elite in general, and Vladimir Putin in particular.
The concept of a Putinist Russia “satisfied” by some concessions re Ukraine and then available as “constructive partner” for the US (for the “realists” and alt-right) or a “benign neutral” (for the alt-left) is a quite ludicrous misreading of the basic worldview of the Russian ruling elite.
@dazedandconfused:
@JohnSF:
My impression is Mad Vlad wants, for starters, Ukraine, Moldova, and the Baltic republics under his thumb. Next he wants Poland, Finland, and all or most of the former Soviet satellites as well.
Not that he’s not of a mind to, but El Taco cannot deliver all that.
@CSK: The problem is faking a shortage is not nearly as easy as he and Heggie had imagined. There are enough Republicans and people in the military arms supply industry who avidly support Ukraine to make SOP-gaslighting tactics very tricky, if not impossible, on this issue. Read about one who reportedly made supporting Ukraine the price of his BBB vote the other day.
Another impulsive, poorly considered decision.
@Kathy:
I can’t damn the Russians for hoping to have their neighbors “under their thumb” myself. Pretty much every country in the world wants that. Ourselves particularly.
Wanting and trying to make that happen by military force are two different things though. The Baltics, Poland, et all are not of great value. Ukraine, on the other hand, was until recently (in historical terms) considered “The best part of Russia”. A large chunk of the best agricultural land on the whole continent, and a large portion of the USSRs manufacturing and mining, access to a warm water port to boot. The sense of entitlement to Ukraine in Russia far exceeds that of anywhere else.
@dazedandconfused:
The lesson of modern European history is that such ambitions are a fool’s errand, and short highway to utter disaster.
The UK has scant desire to subjugate the Republic of Ireland, though its adherance to the EU post-Brexit has been a major problem.
Neither France nor the Netherlands seem inclined to desire to annex Belgium these days, despite much historic ambitions in that regard of both.
Japan is not currently trying to to assert domination over South Korea.
The general lesson is that attempting to subjugate neighbours tends to make said neighbours become somewhat testy.
And for other states, for their own various reasons, to support such hostile reactions.
Arguably, the Baltics and Poland are at least as important to Russia in terms of “pure strategy” as Ukraine.
Poland, for instance, is a major agricultural region. Grain production alone is about 50% of Ukraine.
It also has major mining and industrial assets.
Estonia and Finland are crucial to free Russian access to the Baltic.
Sevastopol in Crimea is not a crucial “warm water port”.
Its transport links are, to use a technical term “for shite”.
Novorossiysk dwarfs it as a cargo port, and is also now the main fleet base for the (sorry remnants of) the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Sevastopol having proved to be a somewhat unhealthy location.
And the whole thing is academic anyway: Turkey controls the Straits, and its navy and air force could stomp any atempt by Russia to challenge that.
This is the basic problem of Putinist revanchism: it simply does not make any sense as a national project, outside of some vague concept of “reviving Greater Russia” or regime preservation politics.
The irony is, that in order to pursue this delusion, Putin is conjuring a European antagonism which simply did not exist previously.
Germany was previously a happy, if somewhat delusional, wandel durch handel partner to Russia.
Now we have Germany committed to massive rearmanent to oppose Russia.
Now we have Finland and Sweden, former “formal neutrals”, joining NATO.
It’s true Russian public opinion tends to regard Ukraine as “different”.
But then, some MAGA seem to regard Canada as also somehow “rightfully American”.
One task of a sensible government is, sometimes, to tell a rather deluded base that it ain’t necessarily so; not to walk hand-in-hand down the happy high road to hell.
@Kathy:
It’s rather dificult to judge what Putin’s end-game may be.
I rather doubt he knows himself.
The primary aim imho was always “regime preservation” rather than expansion:
a Ukraine detatched from Russian dominance, and no longer under the Russian autocrat + oligarchs political economy would have been a massive political danger.
If Ukraine followed the Polish (etc) route to a law-bounded and prosperous polity, that would have been a massive political threat, simply because Ukraine was a Slavic, Orthodox, formerly Soviet, and formerly Russian Imperial, polity.
Russians could have looked there and said: “why not us?”.
As regards wider revanchist ambitions, it’s difficult to judge.
But the Russian “ultras” who Putin has increasingly patronised certainly have have almost unlimited ambitions in regard of subjugating former Russian/Soviet dominions to “due obedience” on the basis of resisting a hateful “western” challenge and attempt to “destroy Russia” either directly or by “social corruption”.
The problem for Europe is, we cannot now trust Russia.
Russia might or might not have immediate designs on other states.
But the logic of their position is plain enough: to enable Russia to be a Power it must dominate at least eastern Europe.
We must now work on worst-case assumptions.
And it is becoming clear, that also applies to the US as well.
So, Europe must become a Power again.
And that is a hard road to walk.
A road Europe hoped never to have to walk again.
I liked the 1990’s.
Damn Putin and damn Trump.
More tariff chaos is on the way.
I suppose the Abominable Act on its own is not enough to wreck the economy.
@JohnSF:
IMO, all the former Soviet Republics are pretty much now subservient to Mad Vlad. Remember Georgia was going on a path similar to Ukraine’s when it got invaded. Maybe he can let go of the Baltics, but perhaps only because they are in NATO.
As to Europe, well, Russia always cries “encirclement!” So how about making military alliance with Japan, Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan, the better to make Russia’s delusions come true.
The big obstacle there would be China. Not that it wouldn’t abandon Russia, Xi wants what’s best for Xi, after all, and doesn’t seem to care much what it is. Rather China would insist on leading and dominating. Since he can dominate Vlad but not Europe…
Seriously, getting Japan and South Korea onboard does help in pressuring Vlad from the East as well as the West.
In their 11-3 Fourth of July victory over Saint Louis at Wrigley Field today the
Mighty Cubs hit 8 home runs! A new record for home runs in one game for the Cubs.
Before this 3 game series is over there won’t be anything left of the Cardinals except little red feathers floating on Lake Michigan!
@Kathy:
Not so much.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are far from subservient.
So is Azerbaijan, which is effectively a Turkish ally.
Moldova has its particular problem with the “Transdnistrian Republic” aka a Russian military/mafiya colony, but subservient it ain’t.
The Central Asian states vary between Russia, China, and Turkey, depending.
Belarus is subservient, because Lukashenko is hated by by a large percentage of the population, and now needs Putin to prop him up.
Georgia is contested; Armenia is in the Russian camp out of lack of options.
Europe is already, effectively, aligned with South Korea and Japan.
The UK has a formal alliance with Australia.
The issue now is: why should Europe stick its neck out for US positions in East Asia, if the US is indicating it will not re Russia in Europe?
And if the US is not serious about a settlement in the Middle East i.e. getting Bibi to behave?
If the US is intent on keeping options open re Russia, the corollary is Europe does the same re China.
The idiocy of MAGA is that they cannot see that necessary strategic calculation by Europe.
imho both are mistaken: Russia cannot now depart from alliance with China without collapse, and Chain will not abandon Russia which it regards as an essential tool to poke the US in the eye, and also to intimidate Europe.
It’s all horribly reminiscent of the machtpolitik contests of European militarised diplomacy from 1870 to 1914.
In the larger picture, Europe may need to become a Power.
But it cannot, and pretty certainly will not, become one militarily in re Pacific/East Asia.
Even if Europe could build the SSN and CV forces required, the primary focus will be control of the NE Atlantic, Med, Baltic, and just possibly the NW Indian Ocean.
Europe might just stretch to a support committment to Australia or even, just maybe, Indonesia.
But the Pacific?
No way.
@JohnSF:
I think you’re right. Putin got away with grabbing part of Ukraine in 2014 and expected a walkover in 2022. He saw an easy victory and great glory for himself. In the American lexicon we have the metaphor “tar baby”. Putin grabbed it and he can’t see how to let go.
@Matt Bernius: Thanks. This the old Tyrell, but not feeling old. Thanks.