Iran Can Take Several Months More of This
Leaked estimates are at substantial variance from administration claims.
WaPo Exclusive (“U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s Hormuz blockade for months“):
A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.
The analysis by the U.S. intelligence community, whose secret assessments on Iran have often been more sober than the administration’s public statements, also found that Tehran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment, three of the people familiar with it said.
Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.
Trump painted a rosier picture in Oval Office remarks on Wednesday, saying of Iran: “Their missiles are mostly decimated, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had.”
Three current and one former U.S. official confirmed the outlines of the intelligence analysis, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.
Asked for comment, a senior U.S. intelligence official emphasized the blockade’s impact. “The President’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage — severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse. Iran’s military has been badly degraded, its navy destroyed, and its leaders are in hiding,” the official, who was not authorized to speak on the record, said in a statement. “What’s left is the regime’s appetite for civilian suffering — starving its own people to prolong a war it has already lost.”
Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other officials have consistently presented the war as an overwhelming U.S. military victory, despite Iran’s rejection of Washington’s demands that it abandon nuclear enrichment, surrender its uranium stockpiles, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and take other steps.
[…]
One of the U.S. officials who spoke to The Washington Post said they thought Iran’s capacity to endure prolonged economic hardship is far greater than even the CIA estimate. “The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance” inside Iran, the official said. “Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”
[…]
But the CIA estimate says Iran can survive the U.S. blockade for 90 to 120 days — and maybe longer — before facing more severe economic hardship, the four people familiar with it said.
[…]
The CIA analysis might even be underestimating Iran’s economic resilience if Tehran is able to smuggle oil via overland routes. Truck and rail convoys can’t replace the volume of ships and open sea lanes but might provide an economic cushion, one of the U.S. officials said. “There’s a belief they could begin moving some oil via rail through Central Asia,” the official said.
On the matter of Iranian weapons, the confidential intelligence assessment says that Iran’s inventory of missiles and mobile launchers remains formidable.
[…]
To control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, however, the missiles matter less than the lower-cost drones, analysts inside and outside the government say. And unlike medium–range missiles that can strike, say, Israel, these drones can be built in small warehouses and easily concealable facilities, another U.S. official said.
“All it takes is one drone to hit a ship and no one will give insurance” to the oil tankers, said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies.
The leaking of these reports, which are surely classified at least SECRET, is highly problematic and illegal. Intelligence analysts are not supposed to have their own agendas, much less leak national security information to the press to advance them. It’s damaging in more ways than one.
At the same time, the American public deserves to hear the truth from the President and his representatives about the war effort. If what they’re saying in public wildly varies from the intelligence briefings they’re getting, as is alleged to be the case here, they should be held accountable.
In my ideal world, the answer to this is Congress faithfully conducting its Constitutionally-required oversight responsibilities. The Armed Services and Intelligence Committees of both Houses, at a minimum, are surely privy to these same intelligence estimates. They should be calling cabinet secretaries to testify and explain the variance.
Alas, that world has been a fantasy for quite some time.
Said analysts might not be the source. This says the memo was “delivered to administration policymakers.” So maybe it was leaked by Tulsi or JD “Trump is America’s Hitler” Vance or some some other infighting insider battling Hegseth/Rubio on the not-a-war’s endgame.
We know already how much MAGA officials love problematic illegality.
What the public is told will be mediated by NPD and FTD.
“Frank George”
“Frank George”
The first link has a button you can push for a transcript.
@DK:
Came here to point out exactly this. I’m not sure why the assumption is that the *analysts* were the leakers, when the WaPo clearly states the leak was after it was delivered to policymakers.
Washington is loaded with people who have their own agendas. I think that’s particularly true for this administration. Someone doesn’t want his or her boots connected to the cement block that is the current Iran situation. I’d look inside the administration for the leak, and not amongst the intelligence professionals.
This is the point where Trump orders his goons to go after Daniel Ellsberg.*
*For the young’uns: Google Pentagon Papers.
Why would Trump listen to boring wet blankets like the CIA when he can be told what he likes to hear by pundits (e.g. Marc Theissen) and organizations (e.g. FDD)?
Does not compute.
ETA: Question: Is it really lying if you believe it?
@charontwo: ” Is it really lying if you believe it?”
Also sometimes called the George Costanza Theory, and with Trump it certainly resonates. Which is worse: pathological liar, or delusional? I lean toward Trump being delusional – he believes his own bluster….the “greatest ever,”….”the likes of which have never been seen,”….every president has wanted a new ballroom “for 150 years,”… and the granddaddy of them all, the 202o election “was rigged.” No evidence the election was rigged, and a mountain of evidence it was not, and he cannot stop making the claim. Note the difference between cannot and will not. Think delusional rather than dishonest* and Trump’s rantings make more sense.
*He’s certainly dishonest, too, as evidenced by years of fraud by and from the Trump Org.
Seems like a very NYT way to say Trump is lying.
And yet oil futures continue to trend downward. I have to wonder what they would look like if Trump was being more forthright about all of this.
While I tend to assume that people with money on the line have an incentive to look past the BS, I would not be surprised if the investor class isn’t more than a bit Fox News pilled these days.
Or maybe they think he will TACO out and that whatever toll Iran charges will be acceptable?
@Charley in Cleveland: Time for Dr. Frankfurt and On Bullshit. Is it lying if you neither know nor care what the truth is?
@Jen: The leak could be from some rogue CIA analyst. Or from Russian spy Tulsi or lazy and unqualified phony Vance. No way to know either way.
At any rate, they take an oath to the Constitution, not to the president. But our legal precedents and standards also obligate them to follow the commander-in-chief’s lead (how goofy of the framers, making head of govt and head of state one job instead of two).
Under most presidencies, Republican and Dem, there’s no conflict compelling enough to force a oath vs. president Sophie’s choice. Unfortunately, the current officeholder called for the “termination” of the Constitution, incited a violent terror attack on Congress while attempting an illegal election coup, publicly colluded with Putin against our intel and allies, and stole sensitive govt documents. These crimes and transgressions unacceptable, no matter what our unhinged John Crow Court says.
Having caused a bind with his traitorous antics, intel leaks now seem less like inappropriate lawbreaking, more like protected whistleblowing. Per usual with Epstein’s bestie, he did it to himself, via his own irresponsible depravity.
Respect or disregard for norms begins at the top.
@DK:
To paraphrase Lex Luthor: If man won’t kill the idiot god, then the devil will.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Trump not being forthright (read “Trump being an inveterate liar”) has been baked into the futures market for a long time now. These investors are gambling on TACO and the near certainty that Trump will at least claim the price paid to Iran is absolutely an unalloyed win for America.
Seems a bad bet to me, but Everything Trump Touches Dies was going to get to his rich friends eventually.
The reality of this war is how unevenly the consequences are felt by the American people. The rich barely know its going on. This is a major geopolitical conflict—U.S. naval blockades, missile inventories 70–75% of prewar levels, and an economy that can hold out 90–120 days or more. the poor are screwed.
All-the-while, our presidents severs trade willingly with historic partners, and blockades oil, which drives economies. Smart investors are making tons of money by just leaving it to their money manager, so let’s drink our lattes and sip on our tea. I love capitalism, but it needs to be reined in.
The war with Iran doesn’t exist for MOST Americans. We can only be angry about it in theory. Its partly because there are few a casualties, a byproduct of technology and AI. In the 80’s at least one could say “we all love the war machine and feed it with our babies”. So, without consequences the rich will only love it more.
Re oil futures. Krugman’s substack yesterday shows a number of short trades on oil futures, which came just before El Taco said or posted something that moved oil prices down. It looks a lot like corrupt insider trading.
I don’t think there’s an effort to lower oil prices to keep these corrupt profiteers from profiteering, but I’ve been wrong before.
I wonder if most of the reduction in Iran’s missile stocks came from missiles being used up in attacks.
It’s beginning to look like Iran can outlast at least the Arab Gulf states. UAE withdrawing from OPEC, and previously calling a $3B loan they had made to Pakistan. The on-again off-again maybe on-again KSA and Kuwait ban on US use of their bases or airspace to conduct the escort service through the Strait. Hints at least that something unusual is happening in Bahrain. Vice-president Vance is in Qatar today meeting with government officials.
This clusterfuck has badly damaged the U.S both in degraded military assets and diplomatic setbacks.
Here is an accounting of the bad news:
“Wajeeh Lion“
What is interesting about this isn’t that the leak varies from the official line, it’s that the difference is night and day. Of course the problem is that nothing the administration says can be take at face value, they lie continually and change the story to fit the question. The reality is that Mary McCarthy’s accusation about Lillian Hellman, accurately describes the Trump administration.
@DK: “This says the memo was “delivered to administration policymakers.” So maybe it was leaked by Tulsi or JD “Trump is America’s Hitler” Vance or some some other infighting insider battling Hegseth/Rubio on the not-a-war’s endgame. ”
Lots of rats leaving a sinking ship.
@charontwo:
I looked into the background of the substack author (Frank George, PhD). I couldn’t find anything to support his expertise in NPD or FTD.
AFAICT, he has no clinical training, and his expertise (indicated by degree and peer-reviewed pub record) appears to be in the genetics of addiction.
Tbh, the way he markets himself and allows others to describe his background and expertise (eg, podcast intros) raises a lot of red flags for me.
I don’t mean this as an ad hominem — though I recognize that term could reasonably be applied to my comments — or to tell you who/how to read. I just offer it up as a caveat emptor from someone in the field.
My first thought was also the Pentagon Papers like MR above. Up until they were released few people had any idea how much we were being lied to by our government and how much the military was complicit in the lies. Given how much our public tends to trust the military this was important. I would like to think that the military is not again complicit in the lying. If the claims about this report are correct we should look at the claims made by our military leaders. I expect Trump to lie but will be disappointed if Caine joins Powell and the Vietnam 4 stars plus McNamara in whitewashing our actual results.
Steve
But here, with Iran and Trump, there doesn’t seem to be much truth to guard, just lies, like turtles, all the way down.
While looking for the accurate Churchill quote I came across Orwell,
@gVOR10:
I think Churchill said this in connection to Operation Overlord, the Normandy landings. Not letting the enemy know where you intended to land troops is eminently sensible. Histories say the nazis swallowed the various deceptions. They even refused to send reinforcements to Normandy, because they’d be needed for the real landings at Calais.
In fact, the panoply of deceptions and misinformation to trick the nazis into thinking the landings would be elsewhere, was named Operation Bodyguard.
Now, the Iranian leadership knows well how long they can hold out in the face of a US blockade. So keeping that information from them is simply impossible. On the other hand, it might be useful for the aggressor not to let Iran know that they know this.
@Mimai:
Thank you. I should have checked him out myself, my bad.
Iran can probably hold longer than Trump has patience for.
Especially given the GCC states are also on a timeline here.
But it should not be ignored that the damage to the Iranian economy is also real, and severe, and growing. It was economic crisis that provoked last years unrest, and could do so again
Therefore, sanctions relief is an important goal for the Pasdaran; what they may be willing to trade for it now remains to be seen.
The idiotic thing about Trump’s approach is that there were clear indications Iran was open to a deal before the fighting, and before the closure of the Straits placed another major card in their hands.
(And let’s not even start about the JCPOA …)
Which is one reason why the GCC states, in their different ways, are so pissed off that what they thought was going to be “limited coercive strikes” was shifted by Netanyahu to “regime kill”, and has left them as Iran’s punching bag.
Mind you, I doubt Jerusalem is any happier, given the US is pretty obviously forbidding Israel with going forward with a “maximum destruction” policy.
Also, as I’ve said before, in the longer term, if Iran attempts to insitutionalise its control of the Straits, there are a lot of other parties, the GCC in particular, but also other Asians, who are likely to push back, over time.
The US and Iran are not the only actors in this play.
@Kathy:
The British made something of an art out of deceiving the Germans.
Not just re OVERLORD.
There were also the “Man Who Never Was” aka Operation MINCEMEAT and BARCLAY re the Sicily landings, some aspects of the Battle of the Atlantic, ULTRA cover stories, the “Double Cross System” of turning the Nazi spy networks in the UK, inculding false reporting of V-1 and V-2 strikes, the “Battle of the Beams”, etc etc.
@charontwo:
That is a very insightful summary.
(Don’t agree with all of it, but it’s still first class analysis, imho)
That fellow is a “must follow”.
@DK:
Very true.
I’d not rule out Rubio, though.
I suspect he’s smart enough to realise what an epic f@ckup this is, and would love to pin the blame on Hegseth and Trump.
But at the same time can’t openly say so.
Same applies to Vance.
As to Gabbard, who knows.
Less personal incentive, perhaps, but more crazy?
(Side bet on Elbridge Colby? roflmao)
@JohnSF: Haaaa Is Elbridge Colby real? This is the type of name behind Watergate leaks or the Pentagon Papers, or else involved in the Profumo Affair, or maybe executed for spying for the Soviets in 1954. Can’t be a living person lol
@DK:
Elbridge Colby, the WASPiest WASP that ever buzzed, lol
He was all behind a “pivot to the Far East” and that support for Ukraine, and involvement in the Middle East, was taking the focus away from China.
In short, another rather silly “realist”.
Sees a bit of the picture, mistakes it for the whole thing.