Iran Declares Strait Open; Trump Says Thanks But No Thanks
We've switched roles.
NYT (“Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is ‘completely open,’ but Trump says the U.S. blockade of Iran will go on.“):
The Strait of Hormuz is open for all commercial ships after the agreement of a cease-fire in Lebanon, Iran and the United States said on Friday.
Oil prices dropped soon after the announcement, though Iran said ships would have to take a “coordinated route” that shipping analysts said referred to a route that runs close to Iran’s coast.
Shortly after Iran’s announcement, President Trump responded in social media post: “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!” But later Mr. Trump said that a U.S. blockade of Iranian ships leaving the strait, which began on Monday, would remain in place. Iran said this week it would retaliate against shipping in the Middle East in response to the blockade.
This is, to say the least, bizarre. Granting that the U.S. blockade is ostensibly only on ships carrying Iranian crude (which, oddly, we’ve lifted sanctions on otherwise), it leaves us in the awkward position of violating our own longstanding policy and making Iran look magnanimous.
Regardless, the situation is murky:
The statements that the waterway is now open raised hopes in markets that oil and gas would start flowing out of the Persian Gulf in significant volumes again.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell more than 10 percent, to below $90 a barrel, its lowest level in more than a month, though it remains more than 20 percent higher than before the war started. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, also fell over 10 percent, to below $84 per barrel.
[…]
Iran’s foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, said in a post on X that the strait would be open for the “remaining period of cease-fire.” He did not specify whether that was the cease-fire in Lebanon or the one between the United States and Iran.
Iran has said before that the strait is open to shipping. And experts on the Strait of Hormuz said Mr. Araghchi’s statement should be treated somewhat cautiously, partly because he specified that the strait would be open to ships using a route — running close to Iran’s coast and Larak Island — that the country’s maritime agency announced this month.
“That does not equate to freedom of navigation,” said Martin Navias, an author of “Tanker Wars: The Assault on Merchant Shipping During the Iran-Iraq Crisis.”
U.S. forces began a blockade east of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, with the aim of stopping Iranian and Iran-linked ships.
U.S. Central Command posted a video on Friday of U.S. officials directing a merchant vessels to return to an Iranian port. It was one of 19 ships that have complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around and return to Iran, Central Command said on social media. “ZERO vessels have evaded U.S. forces during the blockade,” it said.
Iran’s assurances were not likely to be sufficient for major shipping companies, which are hesitant to send ships through the strait, even ones that have been stranded there for weeks, without more certain security guarantees. Hapag-Lloyd, the fifth largest container shipping company, had convened a crisis meeting to assess the latest developments, the company’s spokesman said.
“On paper, this looks great,” said Alexis Ellender, an analyst at Kpler, a marine data tracking firm. But he added that he expected it would to take some time — weeks, not days — before there was a significant upturn in the volume of ships going through.
Stay tuned to Truth Social for more details, I guess.
I’m old enough to remember that this is all ENTIRELY of Trump’s making.
I’m young enough to know nothing in process today will match the verifiable effectiveness of the JCPOA.
And I promise you that Fatso will not be held to account for his failure.
Axios has a report this AM that the felon’s minions are whispering that the US will buy Iran’s enriched uranium for $20B using the Iranian funds that have been frozen. The report notes that Iran is desperate for cash, that is true, but $20B seems short money, particularly when it is their own.
The felon will find a deal difficult to make, as he’s proven himself an untrustworthy negotiator. It is entirely reasonable on the part of Iran to believe any agreement isn’t worth the paper it’s written on..
Rabbit season! Duck season!
I’m a little impressed with how life just seems to go on as normal despite all of this. Prices are up, gas is way up, and other than that, no one seems to notice just how utterly screwed up everything is. Trump’s war without an exit, plan or even internal consistency is just background and has become as normalized as the HHS Secretary cutting the penis off a dead raccoon, or a new Star Wars movie being released.
@Gustopher:
This is why creeping authoritarianism happens, life isn’t completely disrupted and things seem mostly normal. Then you’re a boiled frog. If the felon wasn’t so incompetent, we’d be much worse off. His tariff nonsense and allowing ICE to rampage for his entertainment created disruption that came to the attention of a much larger portion of the populace than lower key, but still horrible programs would. Then the stupidity of attacking Iran…
If he had gone about subverting the country quietly, attacking and subsumming the oppositional elites, universities, the press, law firms etc, one after another would have fallen and few would have noticed.
@Sleeping Dog: I have come to appreciate this last year why fascism is called an “aesthetic movement”. They are highly concerned with how things look
This can work very well for them, propaganda wise, but it also means that they never, never fly under radar. It’s not in their nature. I think there might be forms of authoritarianism that do, but maybe none of them are in the West.
@Kylopod: “Wabbit season!” Not “Rabbit season!” This important edit brought to by Looney Tunes, as opposed to the White House.
@Jay L. Gischer:
Several pundits have made the point that other autocrats, like Mad Vlad, Orban, Erdogan, etc., have proceeded more slowly and incrementally. They also point out they were rather more popular at the start of their terms, and in the first few years.
Maybe not under the radar, but not a big showstopper with every step, either.
El Taco always tries to be the center of attention. A requirement for being said center is that there be attention. You won’t get that with subtlety, much less by going under the radar.
@DAllenABQ: Hey, if I can’t sanewash folks with “looney” in their name, I might as well take a duckwalk across the Grand Canyon without looking down.
Well, to be fair to Trump (and my lord, how much I hate to say that) Iran is still trying to play games.
“The Straits are open; IF you take the northern track and check in with us for approval.”
Er, nope.
This is, despite what Americans on both sides of the Trumpian/non-Trumpian divide may think, in opposite ways, NOT just a US vs Iran decision.
The GCC and the rest of the world are not going to put up with, for a prolonged period, an Iranian surcharge on Hormuz transit.
Or a US one, come to that.
“Mehdi Parpanchi”
What various Iranian sources are saying.
Trump has a proven track record of lying about what other people have said in negotiations. It may be a crude “put words in their mouth and they won’t dare deny them” tactic; it may be that he is incapable of active listening and simply takes it for granted they’ve said what he wanted them to say; it may be that the officials doing the actual negotiating gild the lily in an attempt to make him happy; it may be that his mind is so addled he can no longer tell the difference between fact and fantasy. Or a combination of all four.
In this instance it’s clear he desperately wants to end the war ASAP with a triumphant victory, so that’s what he will keep asserting is happening regardless of the truth. But I’m mindful of what a Gulf State minister said after being an observer at the pre-war “peace negotiations”:
@Sleeping Dog:
Might be a deal attractive to Iran, if they can get hard cash, considering they could do with the money, the enriched uranium is currently out of reach anyway, and if they did recover, go 90% and remetallize, they’d likely be on the receiving end of an Israeli nuclear strike.
(Which was the real reason for 60% and hold; that and it’s utility as a bargaining chip)
Might as well cash in for something, rather than just die.
The overall question for the Pasdaran is, as it always has been: what can they get in exchange for deals re Hormuz, uranium, missiles, proxies etc. And how far can deals on one part avert concessions on others.
And what is the current balance in the Pasadaran between self-interest and ideology?
Must we go through this every week?
Monday — Trump announces some insanity. Oil prices go up, stocks fall.
Friday — Trump calms down. Oil prices fall, stocks go up.
Someone is making a killing off of all this.