Outside the Beltway

Iran Declares Strait Open; Trump Says Thanks But No Thanks

We've switched roles.

James Joyner · Friday, April 17, 2026 · 3 comments

NYT (“Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is ‘completely open,’ but Trump says the U.S. blockade of Iran will go on.“):

The Strait of Hormuz is open for all commercial ships after the agreement of a cease-fire in Lebanon, Iran and the United States said on Friday.

Oil prices dropped soon after the announcement, though Iran said ships would have to take a “coordinated route” that shipping analysts said referred to a route that runs close to Iran’s coast.

Shortly after Iran’s announcement, President Trump responded in social media post: “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!” But later Mr. Trump said that a U.S. blockade of Iranian ships leaving the strait, which began on Monday, would remain in place. Iran said this week it would retaliate against shipping in the Middle East in response to the blockade.

This is, to say the least, bizarre. Granting that the U.S. blockade is ostensibly only on ships carrying Iranian crude (which, oddly, we’ve lifted sanctions on otherwise), it leaves us in the awkward position of violating our own longstanding policy and making Iran look magnanimous.

Regardless, the situation is murky:

The statements that the waterway is now open raised hopes in markets that oil and gas would start flowing out of the Persian Gulf in significant volumes again.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell more than 10 percent, to below $90 a barrel, its lowest level in more than a month, though it remains more than 20 percent higher than before the war started. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, also fell over 10 percent, to below $84 per barrel.

[…]

Iran’s foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, said in a post on X that the strait would be open for the “remaining period of cease-fire.” He did not specify whether that was the cease-fire in Lebanon or the one between the United States and Iran.

Iran has said before that the strait is open to shipping. And experts on the Strait of Hormuz said Mr. Araghchi’s statement should be treated somewhat cautiously, partly because he specified that the strait would be open to ships using a route — running close to Iran’s coast and Larak Island — that the country’s maritime agency announced this month.

“That does not equate to freedom of navigation,” said Martin Navias, an author of “Tanker Wars: The Assault on Merchant Shipping During the Iran-Iraq Crisis.”

U.S. forces began a blockade east of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, with the aim of stopping Iranian and Iran-linked ships.

U.S. Central Command posted a video on Friday of U.S. officials directing a merchant vessels to return to an Iranian port. It was one of 19 ships that have complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around and return to Iran, Central Command said on social media. “ZERO vessels have evaded U.S. forces during the blockade,” it said.

Iran’s assurances were not likely to be sufficient for major shipping companies, which are hesitant to send ships through the strait, even ones that have been stranded there for weeks, without more certain security guarantees. Hapag-Lloyd, the fifth largest container shipping company, had convened a crisis meeting to assess the latest developments, the company’s spokesman said.

“On paper, this looks great,” said Alexis Ellender, an analyst at Kpler, a marine data tracking firm. But he added that he expected it would to take some time — weeks, not days — before there was a significant upturn in the volume of ships going through.

Stay tuned to Truth Social for more details, I guess.