Israeli Airstrike Kills Hezbollah’s Military Commander and Several Deputies
A massive follow-up to the exploding communications devices.
While Israel’s operation targeting Hezbollah operatives with sabotaged pagers was widely hailed as a brilliant bit of spycraft, most of us were left wondering how it fit into the larger strategy. A massive follow-on yesterday may have answered that question.
WSJ (“Israeli Strike Decimates Hezbollah Military Leadership“):
Israel’s airstrike on a building in southern Beirut didn’t just kill a top Hezbollah commander—it took out an entire class of senior leaders of the militant group’s most elite fighting force, as the two foes lurch closer to all-out war.
Hezbollah on Saturday raised the death toll among its fighters from Friday’s airstrike to 16, including top military commander Ibrahim Aqil and many of the senior commanders of the elite Radwan force. The strike on top leadership followed a pair of broad attacks on the group’s rank and file, when thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies that had been rigged with explosives blew up roughly simultaneously across the country.
According to the group’s own death announcements, the week’s attacks accounted for about 10% of the 500 Hezbollah fighters to have been killed since the group started firing rockets across the border shortly after the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks on Israel that sparked the war in the Gaza Strip.
Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute think tank, said Israel’s string of attacks is aimed at killing the militants who underpin Hezbollah’s ability to fight a war.
“They’re looking to take out people who matter,” he said. “So this is calculated.”
The week has taken an enormous toll. Lebanon’s minister of health said Saturday that doctors had performed more than 2,000 surgeries on people injured in the attacks, primarily from the explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members. Friday’s airstrike left 37 dead, including seven women and three children, he said. The total includes the fighters. More than a dozen people were still missing Saturday morning, municipal official Ali al-Haraka said at the blast site.
One imagines having the leadership’s communications infrastructure destroyed helped make this attack successful and, indeed, may explain why so many were gathered in one place at the same time. If this is “mowing the grass,” it came with a heavy dose of Roundup.
But, of course, this may not be the end of it.
The attacks have also sharpened the already high levels of concern that Israel and Hezbollah were spiraling toward a wider war. Top U.S. military officials are increasingly worried that Israel could launch a major offensive in Lebanon.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin canceled plans for a trip beginning this weekend to Israel, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and the Pentagon announced Friday that the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman would head to the eastern Mediterranean on Monday amid the rising tensions. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group is already in the region.
Many of Washington’s closest Arab allies and partners in the Middle East fear a possible Israeli invasion of Lebanon, according to Arab officials, who said it could trigger unrest across the region and an opportunity for extremist groups to harness that anger and regroup.
I’m not entirely sure Israel is prepared to fight a full-scale war in Lebanon at the same time as it’s fighting in Gaza. But they’re certainly off to a good start.
There are two parts to Hezbollah. The military, and the guys who are actually governing southern Lebanon. The military guys want war, the guys trying to manage trash pick-ups and filling potholes, not so much. My guess is that the latter group is going to be left untouched. IOW, Israel is killing the warmongers and leaving the managers – who may actually GAF about their own people – alone.
This will appall the Israel haters, but Israel may well be doing a favor for the regular people who are just trying to live their lives. But that will be too shades-of-gray for most people, who will blame Israel for killing one child even if it may mean saving potentially hundreds of others. Which is why I get impatient with many here in comments who don’t seem able to grasp that this is the Middle East, and not Cincinnati. The rules are different, and very little is ever exactly what it seems to be.
If Hezbollah doesnt retaliate this was a good idea. If they do, can Israel sustain two fronts? Also, IIRC, the IDF didnt perform so well the last time they invaded Lebanon. Is there good reason to think it would go better this time?
Steve
@steve:
Hezbollah has been firing missiles into Israel every single day for months. 60,000 Israelis have had to flee their homes, and are now refugees in their own country. That situation is untenable. But it’s not a question of Hezbollah retaliating, the shooting is on-going. Hezbollah can either fire more missiles or fewer or none. They don’t have the ability to do anything else. The initiative is with Israel, which, in addition to missiles, also has jets and tanks. The question is whether Hezbollah wants hell raining down on the people they pretend to represent. Hopefully the governing wing of Hezbollah will be able to stop the crazies from doing to their people, what Hamas has done to theirs.
@Michael Reynolds: I’m not sure exactly who you number among the “Israel haters” — sometimes it seems that it’s anyone who gives a dam about civilian deaths in Gaza — but for once I’m in agreement with you on something Israel has done. If it turns out to be what you believe it is, then it could be a real step forward.
I wish they could figure out a way to take the same general approach in Gaza — to surgically take out the leaders and kill as few civilians as possible. Maybe their success here will be an inspiration.
Th problem is that this is mixed in with throwing bodies off the roof and raping prisoners. In those cases ,it is a given that the IDF will investigate itself, find that it was a few rogue actors, pretend to punish and leave it at that. It is hard to believe that the Israeli government GAF about civilian deaths. I think that they want civilian deaths just to the point that it becomes an image problem. A portion of the cabinet has publicly expressed they want civilian deaths. If these actions were accompanied by any “give” on Israel’s part it might mean something in the long run in terms of a peace process, but for now IMO it is a very successful short term strategic success. Ultimately the Israeli government wants misery for the Palestinians. This is demonstrated by the fact that they openly encourage terrorism against the Palestinian population in the West Bank.
@wr: The difference is that the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank are sitting on land the religious right want, and they want them out.
One of those killed, Ibrahim Aqil, has long had a bounty on his head for being part of the planning crew for the 1983 US Embassy and Marine barracks bombings in Beirut.
I am quite okay with him being gone.
Michael. Hard to get definitive info but AFAICT Hezbollah has mostly been using their Katyusha rockets. Those usually carry about 50Kg-70kg of explosives. They are unguided artillery rockets and not accurate. However, they do have quite a number of much larger rockets and missiles, ones carrying up to 1,000 kg of explosives. If launched into urban areas those could do real damage. So Israel is escalating, meaning those 60,000 really cant return now, in the hopes that Hezbollah backs down and James notes they are considering an invasion.
Maybe this works, but this feels a bit too much like our wars. Every time Israel has an air attack they announce they destroyed thousands of rocket launchers, but the rocket attacks dont stop. Sounds to me like MacNamara’s reports about how we were winning in Vietnam and more recently where it was always reported we were killing lots of Taliban and the Afghan troops were almost ready to function on their own. AS I noted before, prior land invasions have not all gone well. Attempts at massive retaliation with claims that “this time” we will kill so many that they learn their lesson has never stopped attacks in the past, except maybe as short run effects.
The older Hezbollah military leadership has always avoided all out war. They have pulled back from that in the past. Now they are dead and, I guess, Israeli leadership is hoping that the younger guys taking over will fold. Could happen, but you write fiction. What do you really think happens when you put the younger guys in charge? Anyway, Israel is gambling heavily that Hezbollah will fold and if they dont they have a 2 front war.
Steve
@steve:
I don’t think the Izzies want a two front war, but Gaza is winding down. HAMAs is all but surrounded with the cut off of the Egyptian tunnels and has become more and more prone to suicide attacks of late, a sure sign of despair.
My prediction? Either Hezb’allah cuts a deal forswearing vengeance and ending the exchanges of fire or southern Lebanon is going to be occupied once again. Probably have just a few days to make that decision.
A year ago, Israel was getting ready to move the IDF up to the West Bank to defend settlers as they attacked Palestinians and Jake Sullivan had finished up the final edits on a piece for Foreign Affairs about how great and quiet things are in the Middle East.
A year later, I find it hard to believe that Israel or America has any idea what they’re doing. I’ve been told numerous times here that nobody cares about the Palestinians and that there’s a great game that only a select few can understand at work. The alternative is that Israel and America have managed to put the situation in a place where even getting the hostages back and leaving Hamas rulers of a half-rubble territory has become an act of surrender. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has said that there’s no treaty without a Palestinian state. Doesn’t seem like they are spooked by Iran or Hezbollah, as some have predicted.