Kamala’s New Map
Democrats suddenly have multiple paths to victory.
WaPo Principal Data Scientist Lenny Bronner explains how “Harris has opened up a second path to victory, according to The Post’s polling model.”
Since President Joe Biden exited the presidential race on July 21 and passed the baton to Kamala Harris, his vice president, the race has effectively reversed itself. It is no exaggeration to state that Harris would be the favorite to win the White House, according to our polling model, if the presidential contest were held today.
Relative to the day that Biden dropped out, Harris has gained two percentage points nationally and, as of Sunday, leads in our national polling average. In swing states, she has gained an average of 2.1 points since June 21 and leads in 2 of 7 of them.
Harris has taken the lead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and has substantially closed the gap in Michigan, where Donald Trump now leads by less than one percentage point (if this trend continues, we’d expect our average to show a tie in that state in the coming days).
According to our polling model, Harris still trails Trump in the electoral college tally if the election were held today and every state votes as their polling average currently demonstrates. Nonetheless, she would be the favorite if voters today went to the polls because Harris now has more paths to the presidency than Donald Trump — that is, she is competitive in more states that could add up to 270 votes or an electoral college victory.
Our modeling shows that Harris has two paths to possible success: the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada as well as North Carolina (she could win in either region and still claim the White House). Meanwhile, Trump must win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt to triumph.
There’s a whole lot more but that’s the gist.
Democratic consultant Doug Sosnik piles on in a NYT op-ed titled “How Harris Has Completely Upended the Presidential Race, in 14 Maps.”
With Kamala Harris now at the top of the ticket, the enthusiasm and confidence within the Democratic Party feel stronger than at any point I’ve seen since Barack Obama ran for president in 2008. And it’s not just vibes: The paths to victory in the Electoral College have been completely reshaped for the Democrats – and for Donald Trump – since my last analysis of the electoral map on July 12, nine days before Joe Biden exited the race.
Not only have Democrats come home to support their party’s nominee, they are now also more energized about the election than Republicans. Ms. Harris has quickly picked up support from nonwhite and younger voters.
We are now back to the same electoral map that we had before Mr. Biden’s summertime polling collapse: Once again, the winner in November will come down to the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Current polling shows the transformed race: While Mr. Biden trailed Mr. Trump in all seven battleground states last month, Ms. Harris is now leading Mr. Trump by four points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the latest New York Times/Siena College polls. Other polls show Ms. Harris in a statistical dead heat in Georgia and Arizona.
Those polls also reveal one of Mr. Trump’s biggest obstacles to winning the election: A majority of the country has never supported him, either as president or as a candidate for office. In the Times/Siena surveys, Mr. Trump had polled at only 46 percent in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And with the race no longer between two unpopular nominees, support for third-party candidates has dropped, making it much more difficult for Mr. Trump to win.
And yet: Republicans have a structural advantage in the Electoral College system of voting, giving Mr. Trump at least one advantage against a surging Ms. Harris.
The G.O.P. lost the popular vote in seven out of the last eight presidential elections, yet won the White House in three of those elections. In 2016, Mr. Trump eked out Electoral College wins in swing states like Wisconsin even as Hillary Clinton crushed him in the most populous states like California. The Republican edge has only grown stronger with the reallocation of electoral votes based on the most recent census.
Given that structural advantage, Georgia, and its 16 Electoral College votes, is increasingly becoming a pivotal state that Mr. Trump can’t lose. If Ms. Harris is able to carry Georgia – and Mr. Trump seems to be trying to help her by inexplicably attacking the popular incumbent Republican governor and his wife – then she would have 242 electoral votes, only 28 short of the 270 needed to win.
The titles mentioned in the headline are interactive an instructive. But the excerpt again has the gist: bu dumping Biden, Democrats flipped the script from an election they felt they couldn’t win to one where it’s their race to lose.
The fact that Georgia is again at play is huge. While it’s mathematically possible, it’s simply hard to fathom a race where Harris wins Georgia but loses Pennsylvania.
In 2020 it was hard for many people to fathom a race where Biden wins Georgia but loses Florida. Some people predicted it (like Larry Sabato) but the polls read literally didn’t seem to point to it, and it certainly wasn’t the traditional map. Sometimes two states trend in opposite directions, right under our noses. And there have been a few polls this year in which Harris appears to be doing better in PA than GA. It could be noise, but it’s worth keeping our eye on.
The most baffling pattern I’ve seen in recent polls is that in a number of them she seems to be doing noticeably worse in Nevada than in most of the other battleground states–such as the recent slate of polls from Cook showing her leading in all 7 battlegrounds, even NC, but trailing in NV by 5 points!
One caveat is that NV has a history over the past decade or so of consistently underestimating Dems in polls, even sometimes against the national trend (it underestimated Hillary in 2016), but there is always a chance we’re seeing some kind of realignment. Still, it’s one that’s hard to unpack in light of the 2022 results, where the Republican won the governor’s race in part by distancing himself from election-denialism and pledging to protect abortion rights to some degree, while the more MAGA Senate candidate went down to defeat.
@Kylopod:
Lack of edit button: I meant a few polls show her doing better in GA than PA.
This was from before she announced price controls as a new policy. While I am committed to voting against Trump this is beyond stupid and if she adds a few more policies this stupid I would have to think about not voting. Have to hope this is pandering, but it’s stupid pandering.
Steve
From a quote in the piece:
The GOP won the WH while losing the popular vote twice (2000 and 2016). Bush won the PV in 2004, but obviously wouldn’t have been in that position if he hadn’t won the EV in 2000. (I assume that is the error the author is making).
@Kylopod:
As I recall it, GA was always a vague possibility that Florida simply wasn’t.
@Kylopod:
Nevada is lagging at the presidential level, but Senator Jackie Rosen has fallen off my worry list. So, my suspicion is that NV will come over. We have very strong unions in Vegas, and I assume they’ll step in.
@Steven L. Taylor:
That is not correct. Here are the final averages:
Florida:
RCP: Biden +0.9
538: Biden +2.5
Georgia:
RCP: Trump +1.0
538: Biden +1.2
Polls before the election varied in who would win either state, but they pretty consistently showed Biden doing better in Florida than in Georgia. Commentators like Sabato predicted it was an illusion based on an understanding of how well-organized Dems were on the ground in both states (which is to say, he knew the party in FL was in absolute shambles whereas in GA they’d built up a massive turnout operation, courtesy in part of Stacey Abrams).
Sounds like it’s time for the voter suppression ratf$cking to ramp up. The GOP in the lower southeastern states teach masterclasses on that.
@Argon: I expect actual voter intimidation tactics from the right wing this election, like open carrying just outside the polling location perimeters. Be prepared to fight back.
@steve:
I somewhat agree with this as written, but no policy proposal will keep me from voting to keep the TFG out of office.
Also, the term “price controls” appears to be a tell that the source is MAGA or RW media. Elsewhere, I’ve seen it called a proposed “ban on price gouging” for grocery items. Details are TBD…
Maybe it’ll be similar to Bob Casey’s policy/strategy for combatting “greedflation”, as promoted in his PA media campaign. From the Casey campaign website (dated Nov 28, 2023!)…
While Casey does have a significant polling lead right now, that may have a lot to do with the Casey legacy (for older residents) and the fact the his opponent is out-of-state hedge fund manager guy.
@Eusebio: This was my read as well…it’s not “price controls” so much as a ban on gouging (which, as noted, is already on the books in 37 states).
It’s also becoming apparent that a number of companies raised prices and were just trying to maximize profit, rather than responding to inflation as they claimed, as many are now reducing prices. As long as Harris doesn’t overplay her hand on this, it’s potentially a good strategy because corporate greed is the other guy’s area of expertise.
@steve:
1) The only people who’ll vote against her for this are already against her.
2) It’s not going to happen. By the time legislation could even be crafted, inflation will have ceased to be an issue.
3) This is just so she’ll have something to say when asked about food costs.
This is a campaign mistake. They should not respond to demands from reporters and other media for policy positions. It only provide targets for attack. They should only attack Trump’s economic record. Mediocre GDP growth, huge deficits and national debt, incompetent and wrongly targeted tax cuts. You know, the crap he brags about.
I’ve said it before but negative partisanship works. Karl Rove was right. Attack the opponent’s strength. Run on about four broad themes. That’s it.
I’m afraid Democrats will fall again for the demand of 100s of Elizabeth Warren type white papers.
I suspect price controls and the homeowner subsidy will have zero negatives. The year is not 1995, and Alan Greenspan is not giving pundits an erotic charge. There are plenty of economists who will defend them, and the overreach is going to be hilarious. Most people believe intuitively they are being ripped off by corporations. There’s absolutely zero desire by anybody real to embrace any kind of libertarian dogma about regulation. Add all of this together, and throw in the crypto-nazi populism of the tech-financed JD Vances and it will be a gift to Harris.
You don’t have to be libertarian to not like price controls, you just have to look at the empirical results of past attempts at price controls. I have some hope this is not truly price controls and has been misrepresented but even if it is, it’s bad messaging. Send out something that says “I am a former prosecutor. I don’t want price controls but I do want to go after companies that take advantage of disruptions to engage in price gouging. “
Steve
@Steve: Luckily for you she did just that.
Source
Question from an ignorant Brit: does anyone know if the Democrats have repaired their state operation in Florida?
I recall Rick Wilson a couple of years ago opining that Florida should be competitive, but the Dem state party was so chaotic they just couldn’t get it together?
Is this correct?
@JohnSF:
From what I have read, Dems in FL and TX are still a mess, these should not be as red as the election results (and current polling) have been. Senate should be in play there, considering Scott and Cruz the targets but apparently not.
As far as I can tell, “price controls” came directly from Fox News. No doubt they will be rolling out “socalist price controls” in short order…
@Kylopod: Thanks for the numbers. I stand corrected.
@anjin-san:
I wonder how that will affect a mother of three with a food budget that comes up 100 dollars short.
@Kylopod: There’s an abortion referendum on the ballot in Nevada. That’s going to be bringing out additional Harris voters. I don’t know if that can be quantified, but it’s like having the wind at your back.
What are the two main regions where Harris has potential paths to success?