- Via Wired: The FBI’s Jeffrey Epstein Prison Video Had Nearly 3 Minutes Cut Out.
- Via Forbes: Trump’s Pardons Cost At Least $1.5 Billion In Restitution.
- Via the BBC: US debt is now $37tn – should we be worried?
- Via the BBC: Where to go instead of the big US parks this summer.
- Via The Hill: Trump orders Interior to look at raising revenue at national parks.
- Via The Bulwark: Will the Senate Actually Confirm Trump’s Hooters-Obsessed Nominee?
- Via Politico: Vietnam thought it had a deal on its US tariff rate. Then Trump stepped in.
- Via The Atlantic: Hurricane Science Was Great While It Lasted.
- Via ProPublica: George Mason Is the Latest University Under Fire From Trump. Its President Fears an “Orchestrated” Campaign.
- Via TPM: Congress Throws More Money at Removing Immigrants than Most Countries Spend on Their Armies.
Mid-Week Pile o’ Tabs
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55 responses to “Mid-Week Pile o’ Tabs”
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It depends how Epstein died. I’ve heard more than one version. Three minutes might not be enough time to hang someone, for instance, even if the perpetrators left after stringing him up.
But for conspiracy theorists, who love nothing better than hunting anomalies, 3 minutes missing from a video will be taken as proof of all sorts of things, including the murder of the unlamented Epstein.
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@Kathy:
There’s an awful lot of smoke here for there to be no fire. Epstein dies in a high security prison, under 24/7 surveillance, having killed himself in a particularly difficult way, during the regime of a president of the United States whose career Epstein could have killed, and there’s a three minute gap which Trump’s AG explained as a daily one minute occurrence.Also, there both is and is not an Epstein list which was written by Obama then squirreled away and never used. Because: reasons TK.
Occam’s razor suggests an answer that is outrageous but likely: Trump is implicated in the Epstein files and had Epstein murdered, with the murder covered up. Wishing Ghislaine Maxwell well was not a flub, it was a threat.
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Three minutes of tape missing.
FWIW, I think if you polled most prisons (state and Federal), you’d find that missing footage and broken or not enabled equipment is the norm rather than the exception. This has less to do with conspiracies and far more to do with how little investment has been made in their infrastructure.
This strikes me as the type of thing that is hard for people without expertise in the area to imagine and expected by those who are familiar with these topics. I’ve yet to see a credible reporter with extensive experience in this case get particularly excited about the missing three minutes.
Most importantly, the camera in question wasn’t pointing at Epstien’s cell. It was a camera *near* his cell.
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Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
What all you list suggests is there may something being hidden, and it would perhaps pay to dig deeper and find out what it is. But one must not get ahead of the evidence, nor make assumptions one way or another.
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In my experience, immigrants are good guys that work hard. I have trouble understanding the desire to get rid of them. Without immigrants who would cut my grass, repair my roof, or marry my president? I’ve looked for bad guy immigrants. I looked at the marielitos that were sent here from Cuba selected by the Castro regime as being bad people. I am not finding any long term ill effects from letting them in. I welcome any input from someone knowledgeable on this issue.
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The administration argued additional revenue will “fuel investment in our national parks, reduce the maintenance backlog, construct critical infrastructure improvements and support conservation projects that improve our majestic national parks.”
The National Parks are profit centers, especially for the surrounding areas. There’s no reason to fuck with them. Trump, who bankrupts casinos, is a fool.
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@Matt Bernius:
Matt, that may be true, and it may or may not explain things, but remember this was not a mechanical failure according to Wired, it was editing. Do you have no qualms about the astounding coincidence that a man billionaires including POTUS wanted dead, ends up dead in jail while the guards were shopping on-line rather than doing the 30 minute check-ins and also the supposedly raw tape was tampered with?Someone should check the bank accounts and text messages of the guards on-duty that night.
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@Kathy:
If I were in charge of the facility, I’d be explaining why I left him in gen pop, where he committed suicide by stabbing himself 20-30 times
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@Michael Reynolds: In the immortal words of Cokie Roberts, “It would be irresponsible not to speculate.”
Not sure why so many here are so eager to throw water on your speculations. After all, they’re just offering possibly logical solutions, which have no greater relationship to the truth than your damning ones. Why the rush to acquit Trump?
Oh, and apropos of nothing, my former neighbor’s father in law was the polygraphist who gave the lie detector test to Rose Mary Woods. Even after all those years he wouldn’t repeat a word of what she said, but the living history was pretty cool.
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@Kathy:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Like most aphorisms, sounds cool, and is wrong. Never say never.
I lived in Washington DC during Watergate. You know what all we clever, in-the-know Washingtonians said? No way: Nixon isn’t that stupid. Well, he was that stupid, and the accusations were correct. Malice and stupidity are not mutually exclusive. In fact malice usually is stupid.
So the counter to Hanlon would be, ‘Malice and stupidity are close friends, if you see one, keep a sharp eye out for the other.’
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@Matt Bernius: Now that Jeffrey Epstein has been upgraded to The Jeffrey Epstein Hoax, I’m leaning towards Trump had him killed.
Possibly that the murderers showed up and found him already dead, because that would be so very stupid.
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The best way for Trump to get his supporters to stop asking about Epstein and the client list would be to get QAnon to believe that Epstein’s death was faked, he was tried in a military court in Guantanamo (can’t trust the pedophile judges in normal courts), and is providing information and the rest of the Globalist Pedophile Ring is going to be arrested any day now.
Obviously Trump can’t release the client list, as that would warn the targets.
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Never say never.
You just did.
Absolutes are rare, but sometimes they exist.
Anyway, Grey’s Law: Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice (why did I just hear about this now).
Kathy’s First Law: Speculation is never a substitute for evidence.
We know there’s stupidity and incompetence to spare in El Taco’s so-called administration, not to mention in El Taco himself, now very likely with a heavy dose of dementia to boot. Odds are this is more of the same.
Granted, there’s a lot of malice, too. But that’s openly on display, and incompetently implemented.
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I think if you polled most prisons (state and Federal), you’d find that missing footage and broken or not enabled equipment is the norm rather than the exception. This has less to do with conspiracies and far more to do with how little investment has been made in their infrastructure.
This is true, but I think on the same token I think its hard to understate how corrupt many corrections officers are in most states and at the federal level, and who would be willing to turn off or turn over camera footage for a fairly small sum.
Note: I am not taking a position one way or the other, as there just isn’t enough information yet. But I know and have seen enough corrections officers who will gladly break contraband laws for just a few dollars. They would also gladly look the other way/actively conspire to make a pedophile meet an untimely demise for a few grand.
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I think the entire Epstein discussion is misguided.
I doubt there’s much of a list, these perverts probably didn’t keep detailed records of their orgies. A black book at most, which isn’t worth much more than flight logs.
I’m more interested in the “tens of thousands of video’s” Bondi said she had.
That’s a very specific claim she’d have a hard time weaseling out of. -
@wr:
People will tend to dismiss the outrageous simply because it’s outrageous. Still, despite a decade now of the outrageous being routinely true. The safe position to take is always the most conventional one, the one a person believes is least likely to embarrass him.When this fucked-up era started I said a number of things about Trump: that he has excellent predatory instinct but is otherwise rather stupid and incapable of learning; that he is a textbook psychopath a man who enjoys hurting others and is incapable of empathy; that he is owned by Putin; that he is a weak and needy man; that he is a con-man and cult leader.
I was hardly alone in those beliefs, but there was quite a bit of pushback here at OTB on every point. Not everyone has come around, but I think it’s fair to say that opinion has moved much closer to where I started.
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Occam’s razor suggests an answer that is outrageous but likely: Trump is implicated in the Epstein files and had Epstein murdered, with the murder covered up.
I think Occam’s Razor suggests suicide and no list, but instead a bunch of conspiratorial bullshit coming back to bite the bullshitters.
What is more likely: a massive cover-up or a suicide?
What is more likely: people like Bongino, Patel, and the rest making up a massive conspiracy for clicks and views, or that there isn’t the there there that they claim?
I am not saying I know, but I do know this: the part of MAGA that I agree with is cult-like is QAnon. QAnon is fueled by a bunch of stories of deep-state-led conspiracies about elite-level pedophilia. That is why they are obsessed with Epstein and his “client list.”
I would suggest, ironically, that you are perhaps falling for some of the same appeal of this story as many in the cult you like to deride have been.
You want it to be true.
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@Matt Bernius: I must confess, this is more persuasive to me than vast conspiracies.
I am not saying that it doesn’t sound fishy, but I need more than this to change my mind.
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@wr:
Why the rush to acquit Trump?
FYI: Not my goal. I am doing what I always try to do: give my honest assessment based on the available evidence.
Do I think it is possible that Epstein was murdered and that there is a list that is now being protected? Sure, it is possible. I just don’t think it’s likely based on the evidence.
I would note that Biden was president after Epstein died. The Biden DoJ would have had access to all these documents. Lots of people have seen this stuff/have knowledge of the case.
How are all those people being kept quiet if there is some real bombshell out there? There is no Democratic attorney from the Biden DoJ who wouldn’t leak this stuff to “save democracy”?
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@Michael Reynolds: I feel like you are disproving your objection. Malice and stupidity may be friends, but it is usually the stupidity that gets you caught.
And having worked in a modest-sized public bureaucracy, I can attest that stupidity is more frequent than malice.
To Matt’s point, the notion that old, poor equipment is an issue in a prison is far more believable to me than a conspiracy.
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@Michael Reynolds: BTW: I still don’t believe he is owned by Putin.
And I stopped pushing back on the cult thing because it was pointless, and trying to explain my position never went anywhere.
Don’t assume silence and lack of pushback is necessarily an endorsement. ;). I say as good-naturedly as text can convey, BTW.
(Also: who disagreed that he was weak and a con-man?)
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Well, the stuff outlined in the piece above is a bit fishy, but not nearly as rancidly fishy as some of MAGAs other lies.
I have two concerns: 1. Trying to figure out what the truth is and 2. Advancing an anti-MAGA political agenda.
They are not in concert on this one. I don’t plan to spend any effort on this story one way or another. Not gonna throw cold water, but not gonna hype it either.
MAGA will drive this or not. Of course, making Republican Reps vote against it is very nice, and well done House Ds.
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This reminds me of the Jempty conversation yesterday in one respect:
Hindsight can make healthy skepticism appear as motivated reasoning or naivety, and wild-eyed speculation appear as aloof wisdom.
The list feels like a MacGuffin.
I will say that @Daryl’s interest in the videos seems like the better road to take. IIRC, Epstein had cameras everywhere, so that claim seems reasonable.
Whether the DOJ has them, we don’t know. What the videos show, we don’t know. How comprehensive a collection, we don’t know.
What I do know:
If I had been around Epstein and participated in sexual acts with trafficked girls, I would be much more concerned about video evidence than I would some list that is only evidence of an undefined association that could have been for any number of innocuous reasons.
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@Kurtz:
I would be much more concerned about video evidence than I would some list
Especially if the video confirmed, “smaller than average” but “not freakishly small.”, and, “It has a huge mushroom head. Like a toadstool…”
Yes, they could remove or redact anything that was bad for Trump, but yesterday Dr. Taylor started off a discussion about how hard it is to maintain a conspiracy, and the disclosure of the 3 minute gap would remind them of the risk.
I think the likeliest scenario is that Q Anon started this, Trump found it profitable to ride it, Bondi isn’t very bright, and believing their own bullshit, she jumped to a conclusion without actually reviewing whatever is behind Schroedinger’s list. But, as others have noted above, they made their bed, and it would be irresponsible not to speculate.
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BTW: I still don’t believe he is owned by Putin.
I believe he wants to be.
All this reminds me of Sagan’s take on Venus. More or less it goes like this:
I can’t see a thing on the surface of Venus. Why not? Because it’s covered with a dense layer of clouds. Well, what are clouds made of? Water, of course. Therefore, Venus must have an awful lot of water on it. Therefore, the surface must be wet. Well, if the surface is wet, it’s probably a swamp. If there’s a swamp, there’s ferns. If there’s ferns, maybe there’s even dinosaurs.
The short version is. “Observation: there was absolutely nothing to see on Venus. Conclusion: it must be covered with life.”
Lots of old SF down to the forties or fifties is set on Venus, usually portrayed as a tropical swamp planet of dense vegetation and exotic local lifeforms. Reality is an dried up desert hot enough to melt lead and pressures like those of the bottom of the sea.
So, a rather giant gap between assumptions and evidence.
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@Kathy: “Kathy’s First Law: Speculation is never a substitute for evidence”
I think in this case MR’s point — and certainly mine — is that evidence just doesn’t matter. Personally, I don’t care if we ever get “the truth” about this particular scandal.
What is important is that the speculation is the first thing that’s ever come along that can drive a wedge between Trump and his base.
You’ve got to keep your eyes on the prize here — and the prize is not finding out what happened to Epstein. It’s Trump losing support.
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Matt, that may be true, and it may or may not explain things, but remember this was not a mechanical failure according to Wired, it was editing.
First, this needs to be investigated. No question and I do think at this point an independent counsel is the right approach.
Second, “editing” can mean a lot here. It appears that two files were combined to create this video. It also appears that some or both of the videos had meta data added by investigators that was later stripped (which isn’t surprising to me either). There was apparently missing footage due to a system reset (which isn’t surprising at all–especially as a separate investigation detailed how antiquated the system was). There may also be clipped footage (the Wired article suggests there is), but we’re not sure.
Again, this should be investigated, but I’m still don’t think this dog hunts.
With all that said, the real screw-up was the government referring to this footage as “raw.” Raw has a very specific meaning and it’s clear this video hadn’t been raw for quite some time. Again, it’s a case where the “cover up” is the real crime. What’s even stupider is I really don’t think there was much to cover up in this case–I think this was a case of attempting to completely shut down questioning, only to do so in a careless, bullshitting way, that makes the situation worse.
Beyond that, I have some additional thoughts about why this is such an enduring issue for Trump. I’ll save those for an article I need to write.
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This is true, but I think on the same token I think its hard to understate how corrupt many corrections officers are in most states and at the federal level, and who would be willing to turn off or turn over camera footage for a fairly small sum.
Completely agree about correction officers. In fact, that appears to be at play here, but in a TOTALLY different way.
One of the big “questions” is why Epstein had two mattresses and more blankets than in a normal cell. Chances are that’s because he had paid off officers to get “special treatment.” He had a record of doing that when he was in State custody prior to his federal time:
https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/1942758367048675632 -
@wr:
What is important is that the speculation is the first thing that’s ever come along that can drive a wedge between Trump and his base.
I take the point. I just think it is dangerous for a lot of anti-Trump types to get all invested in the conspiracy now because it hurts Trump. I am seeing plenty of discussion that at least hopes that part of why the administration is balking ins because Trump is implicated (which I think MR thinks, BTW).
I also think that letting MAGA fight it out without becoming Epstein Truthers is the wiser thatn getting down in the mud.
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@Matt Bernius: Agreed on all of this.
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@Steven L. Taylor: “You want it to be true.”
Not claiming to speak for MR here, but for me, I actually don’t care if it’s true.
I care that it’s damaging.
Odds are there’s no there there. But these horrible people spent years spreading stories about vicious conspiracies in order to lie themselves into power… only to find that the morons they were manipulating won’t accept the actual truth from the people who lied to them.
So let’s have investigations. Let’s dive deep into every aspect of this sordid detail. And every time there is truthful evidence that Epstein killed himself, it will just end up making the crazies turn even more on the Trumpies.
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@Kathy:
I believe he wants to be [owned by Putin].
I believe he wants to own Putin. Or perhaps be equal members at the top of the global nuclear-armed tyrants club. No way does Trump want to be in a subservient role.
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@Steven L. Taylor: “The Biden DoJ would have had access to all these documents.”
And at the rate Merrick Garland was working, he would have gotten around to looking into it no later than 2035!
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@Steven L. Taylor: “I just think it is dangerous for a lot of anti-Trump types to get all invested in the conspiracy now because it hurts Trump. ”
Completely with you on this. I’m not getting invested — I’m pointing and laughing.
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@wr:
If you want to fan the flames of conspiracy, and stir the crazies, and keep the whole FUBAR mess alive, go ahead.
But Reynolds seems to believe El Taco had Epstein killed and there is proof in the files, or that there’s some other damaging evidence against him in them. In that case, he has no evidence to back it up. He may be right, but he still has no evidence.
BTW, regarding “surely they wouldn’t be stupid enough to”, my takes is anyone can be stupid enough to do something self-destructive. Regan was stupid enough to trade arms for hostages with Iran (and then misappropriate the money for other purposes), and Bill Clinton was stupid enough to have an affair and lie about it during his time in office.
What I think is happening is the consequences of Rule of Acquisition number 153: Sell the sizzle, not the steak. People often enjoy anticipation more than they do the reveal. And you can string them along with anticipation reminding them every now and then the big reveal is coming soon.
Eventually, though, there has to be a reveal. For all the sizzle, the marks expect a steak too. The steak need not be good, it may not even need be steak, but it has to be there. If after stringing people along with the sizzle for years, you tell them there’s no steak, they’re going to be mad.
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@Kathy:
What I think is happening is the consequences of Rule of Acquisition number 153: Sell the sizzle, not the steak. People often enjoy anticipation more than they do the reveal. And you can string them along with anticipation reminding them every now and then the big reveal is coming soon.
Eventually, though, there has to be a reveal.
Not if you are JJ Abrams.
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Absolutely. I think it’s just as likely Epstein paid off some guards to not check on him for a bit so he could take the cowards way out.
My position remains agnostic, just very curious how this all develops
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I think it’s just as likely Epstein paid off some guards to not check on him for a bit so he could take the cowards way out.
That’s entirely possible too (though he probably didn’t share his intent).
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All I know about him is he should never be allowed anywhere near Star Trek or Star Wars.
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I’m late to this thread, but in general, I agree with everything Dr. Taylor and Matt Bernius wrote.
The entire Epstein situation has been peculiar from the start, and I think it took on a life of its own long ago, as most conspiracies do.
Now that Trump says it’s bad, I fully expect the right-wing conspiracists to “change their minds” and left-wing conspiracists to take up the mantle. But at this point, I doubt there is any there, there.
The JFK assassination conspiracies lasted for decades and took a similar route. The declassification from early this year did not reveal any major new information that would overturn the Warren Commission’s conclusion that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone, but I’m sure conspiracists continue to believe the government is “hiding the truth.”
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Having seen the inside of many conspiracies, first as a prosecutor and later as defense counsel, I can say that unlike Stringer Bell, conspirators do occasionally keep records. While I doubt that Epstein kept the type of list people seem to believe exist, I can say who does keep such lists and that is criminal investigators and prosecutors. The FBI is particularly good at this. An FBI file will typically have the agent’s summary of interviews, called form 302s, affidavits of witnesses, transcripts of recordings and lists of exhibits. Tying all of that together will be indexes, exhibit lists, timelines, and charts linking various witness statements and other proof gathered. Because Epstein was thoroughly investigated and many witnesses were interviewed, whatever will be in an investigators file is much more dangerous than some list Epstein may have jotted down. Anyone who was involved with Epstein should well be frightened that such file be made public.
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@Andy:
A conspiracy theorist dies and goes to heaven. When he arrives at the Pearly Gates, God is there to receive him. “Welcome. You are permitted to ask me one question, which I will answer truthfully.”
Without hesitation, the conspiracy theorist asks, “Who really shot Kennedy?”
God replies, “Lee Harvey Oswald shot him from sixth floor of the Texas School Book Depository. There were no accomplices. He acted alone”
The conspiracy theorist says, “Shit! This goes higher up than I thought!”
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I have two concerns: 1. Trying to figure out what the truth is and 2. Advancing an anti-MAGA political agenda.
They are not in concert on this one
The truth is that Trump has weaponized conspiracy theories, and the best way to combat this is to put him in a situation where he has to show he has nothing (or something!).
Sometime the truth is better revealed by asking questions than by actually stating the truth. People have to be prepared to listen to the truth.
Also, if Epstein was blackmailing people to fund his lavish lifestyle, there’s a list. And Bondi has said there are videos (although we don’t actually know who is in them).
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@Andy:
But at this point, I doubt there is any there, there.
The likelihood that he kept an island stocked with underage women for sex, flew people out on the regular, and that no one other than him partook seems absurd.
There is definitely a there there, even if we don’t know what the there is.
There are definitely people who knew and abetted, unless the island was maintained by robots.
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@Kathy:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
What all you list suggests is there may something being hidden, and it would perhaps pay to dig deeper and find out what it is. But one must not get ahead of the evidence, nor make assumptions one way or another.
Reminds me of a quote I first came across five decades ago in a German History & Culture class in college, something like: “Why look for conspiracy when stupidity explains so much.” by Goethe probably back in the 19th century.
Occam’s Razor, Hanlon’s Razor, Goethe … they were all tapping into the same vein.
Me? I think Epstein had good reason to consider suicide. It could have been something else, but I’m not yet convinced of it. Right now I’m looking at this Republican-created mess as a brief Schadenfreude moment, perhaps short-lived, things change quickly these days.
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@Gustopher: I am certainly not claiming that people didn’t go to the island or that there isn’t daming evidence of some kind about somebody in the DoJ.
I am just not convinced that there is, as I said the other day, One List to Damn Them All or that whatever evidence exists proves specific crimes. We already know there of people who have flown on the plane or been to the island. I am not convinced that someone had Epstein killed.
Again, I am open to evidence.
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@wr:
“I think in this case MR’s point — and certainly mine — is that evidence just doesn’t matter. Personally, I don’t care if we ever get “the truth” about this particular scandal.
What is important is that the speculation is the first thing that’s ever come along that can drive a wedge between Trump and his base. ”
I’m all for that. As @Kathy says, “If you want to fan the flames of conspiracy, and stir the crazies, and keep the whole FUBAR mess alive, go ahead.”
Totally agree. I suggest that you and MR and anyone else with some spare time should create accounts on Trumpy sites. Claim that you’re good friends with Elon or that your brother in law is a guard at that jail. Based on your inside info you know it wasn’t a suicide. Stir up the wackos. I think that would be more effective than “just asking questions” here. I’d love to do it myself but I’m too lazy.
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@Andy: Exactly.
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And today Bondi fires the Epstein prosecutor. Way to tamp down the conspiracy maniacs there…it is seriously fascinating to me that Epstein might (I stress the “might”) be what causes so many MAGAts to break from Trump. Of all the “grab the popcorn” moments with Trump over the years, and all the harms he has done, THIS is what his base is going to turn on him over?!?!
My wife and I are rooting for casualties, and not too worried about the truth of it. After 13 (or whatever it’s up to now) Benghazi investigations these right wingers deserve to be hoist on their own petard.
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@a country lawyer:
100% this. -
@Andy: Precisely, but I wonder if this will be something that is more difficult to gaslight than normal. Labeling his most ardent supporters “stupid” might have been a step too far, even for him.
“The Edge… There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over.” -Hunter Thompson.
