Nasrallah Killing Fallout
What we know a day later.
Publicly, at least the Biden administration is supporting Israel.
The White House, “Statement from President Joe Biden on the Death of Hassan Nasrallah“
Hassan Nasrallah and the terrorist group he led, Hezbollah, were responsible for killing hundreds of Americans over a four-decade reign of terror. His death from an Israeli airstrike is a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians.
The strike that killed Nasrallah took place in the broader context of the conflict that began with Hamas’s massacre on October 7, 2023. Nasrallah, the next day, made the fateful decision to join hands with Hamas and open what he called a “northern front” against Israel.
The United States fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and any other Iranian-supported terrorist groups. Just yesterday, I directed my Secretary of Defense to further enhance the defense posture of U.S. military forces in the Middle East region to deter aggression and reduce the risk of a broader regional war.
Ultimately, our aim is to de-escalate the ongoing conflicts in both Gaza and Lebanon through diplomatic means. In Gaza, we have been pursuing a deal backed by the UN Security Council for a ceasefire and the release of hostages. In Lebanon, we have been negotiating a deal that would return people safely to their homes in Israel and southern Lebanon. It is time for these deals to close, for the threats to Israel to be removed, and for the broader Middle East region to gain greater stability.
AP, “Biden and Harris call the Israeli strike killing Hezbollah’s Nasrallah a ‘measure of justice’“
The Israeli strike that killed Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah was a “measure of justice” for victims of a four-decade “reign of terror,” President Joe Biden said Saturday.
[…]
“President Biden and I do not want to see conflict in the Middle East escalate into a broader regional war,” Vice President Kamala Harris said in a statement Saturday that echoed Biden’s description of a “measure of justice.” She added, “Diplomacy remains the best path forward to protect civilians and achieve lasting stability in the region.”
But Peter Baker and Julian Barnes report for NYT, “Strike on Hezbollah Deepens Disconnect Between Biden and Netanyahu“
No one inside the White House was crying for Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday. But the Israeli strike that killed Mr. Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, once again deepened tensions between President Biden’s administration and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
Israeli officials gave their American counterparts no advance warning of the strike on Friday, according to U.S. officials, who were already peeved that Mr. Netanyahu brushed off a U.S.-French 21-day cease-fire proposal. Now American officials worry that they face a wider war that could engulf the region after nearly a year of effort by Mr. Biden to head off such an escalation.
[…]
While the president and vice president refrained from publicly second-guessing Israel, American officials privately expressed frustration about what they saw as the latest example of a pattern of defiance by an ally that Mr. Biden has sought to support. The miscommunications and miscalculations of recent days have only underscored the disconnect between the American president and the Israeli prime minister.
The expanding Middle East war comes at a politically sensitive time for Mr. Biden and the White House as Ms. Harris races to build support for the election that culminates in about five weeks. More turmoil in the region could fuel criticism from the left and the right even as Ms. Harris would prefer to focus attention on what she calls the dangers of another term for former President Donald J. Trump.
Some Biden team veterans even speculated about whether Mr. Netanyahu was intentionally trying to help Mr. Trump win the Nov. 5 election given their past alignment — a theory that, true or not, highlights the deep mistrust and suspicion that have grown in recent months between Washington and Jerusalem.
Meanwhile, in an “exclusive,” Reuters reports, “Iran’s supreme leader taken to secure location, sources say“
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been taken to a secure location inside Iran amid heightened security, sources told Reuters, a day after Israel killed the head of Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah in a strike on Beirut.
The move to safeguard Iran’s top decision-maker is the latest show of nervousness by the Iranian authorities as Israel launched a series of devastating attacks on Hezbollah, Iran’s best armed and most well-equipped ally in the region.
Reuters reported this month that Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Corps, the ideological guardians of the Islamic Republic, had ordered all of members to stop using any type of communication devices after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah blew up.
And The Telegraph reports, “Iranian general killed alongside Hezbollah chief“
Iran’s state-news service confirmed that Abbas Nilforushan, a top general in its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who led operations in Lebanon, was also killed in the bombing.
Thus far, Farnaz Fassihi reports for NYT, “Iran Projects Caution After Israeli Strikes Against Hezbollah“
In the turbulent landscape of the Middle East, Iran’s aging supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could always rely on the close alliance, unwavering loyalty and deep friendship of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah.
When Israel killed Mr. Nasrallah in a massive airstrike on Friday, it abruptly wiped out a singular force in Mr. Khamenei’s hierarchy of close associates.
Iran had for 40 years nurtured Hezbollah as the main arm of its proxy network of militias, as a forward defense against Israel. But in the past two weeks, Hezbollah’s capacity began to crumble under wave after wave of Israeli attacks on its leadership, arsenal and communications.
Now, fissures have opened within the Iranian government over how to respond to Mr. Nasrallah’s killing, with conservatives arguing for a forceful response and the moderates, led by Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, calling for restraint.
All of this has left Iran, and its supreme leader, in a vulnerable position.
Four Iranian officials who knew Mr. Nasrallah personally and had been briefed on events said that Mr. Khamenei had been deeply shaken by his friend’s death and was in mourning, but had assumed a calm and pragmatic posture. The officials, including two members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly.
[…]
Significantly, Mr. Khamenei signaled that it would be Hezbollah, not Iran, that would be leading any response to Israel, and that Iran would play a supporting role. “All of the forces in the resistance stand by Hezbollah,” Mr. Khamenei said. “It will be Hezbollah, at the helm of the resistance forces, that will determine the fate of the region.”
It was a striking sign, some analysts said, that Mr. Khamenei may have no way to effectively respond at the moment to Israel’s onslaught on his proxies. Faced with a choice between all-out war with Israel or lying low in the interest of self-preservation, he appears to be choosing the latter.
“They are completely checkmated by Israel at this moment,” said Sanam Vakil, the director for Middle East at Chatham House. “Khamenei’s statement is indicative of the gravity of the moment and the caution; he is not publicly committing to anything that he can’t deliver.”
Israel has been targeted by Iran since the 1979 Revolution and by what became Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies since 1982. Neither threat is likely to go away any time soon. Still, in the span of a few days, the senior leadership of Hezbollah and the IRGC have been killed, the communications networks of the IRGC and its proxies has been gutted, and Iran’s leader is cowering in fear for his safety. As “mowing the grass” goes, that’s an incredibly effective showing.
Israel is showing up Iran’s impotence. Iran cannot protect its friends. It cannot retaliate against the killers of its friends. It’s fascinating to me, because Iran itself is a very tough nut to crack militarily, but its friends and allies, not so much. The script has been flipped – it’s Iran’s allies that have made it vulnerable. Iran looks like a paper tiger.
Biden’s right to push for a ceasefire because eventually Israel will want to stop and find a temporary political solution. But in the meantime Israel has done serious damage to Iran’s power and influence. And despite mild concern for Palestinians, every Arab country in the region is secretly thrilled.
Via Atrios, a claim that Hezbollah had agreed to a pullback contingent on a ceasefire in Gaza. Netanyahu chose a different path.
I have no idea how reliable Trita Parsi is. He does have a WIKI page. Alternate history is a silly game, but I can’t help but mourn Trump’s rejection of the JCPOA. I don’t know if it would have eased tensions with Iran, but it sure seems it would have been worth trying something other than perpetual war.
“Some Biden team veterans even speculated about whether Mr. Netanyahu was intentionally trying to help Mr. Trump win the Nov. 5 election given their past alignment ”
Just Wow! Is there any doubt at all that Netanyahu has been playing to and supporting the GOP and its candidates for years?
Steve
He’s not wrong
@JKB:
Kushner is paid by Sunnis not Shia. If Iran wrote him a check, he’d flip. He’s a whore. Just like your cult leader: he’s for sale.
@Michael Reynolds:
Perhaps but still the Hezbollah gun to Israel’s head has been deflected at least a bit. The Iranian leader has gone into hiding. The IRGC has ordered its members to not use cell phones, pagers and radios.
@steve:
If Poland or someone were alleged to be trying to influence the election in favor of Harris it would become bothsides. Only then would it enter the political universe FTFNYT allows itself to recognize.
As I said in yesterdays post on this topic:
Iran miscalculated and trapped itself.
The Hezbollah heavy missile arsenal can either be primarily a deterrent against an Israeli attack on Iran, or primarily a deterrent against an Israeli campaign against Hezbollah
It cannot readily be both
Iran was encouraging Hezbollah to continue short-range rocket strikes to demonstrate that Iran counted for something as a sponsor of Hamas.
But it is obviously very hesitant about letting Hezbollah use the heavy missiles, which will both lead to a massive IDF counter-strike and could lead to Iran having little effective to deter an Israeli direct strike on Iran.
Iran’s remaining deterrent threat if the Hezbollah arsenal is neutralised is to respond to an IDF air campaign by closing the Gulf, and possibly striking the Arab oilfields.
But that in turn will bring US intervention as sure as night follows day.
And that could be the end of the tale for the rulers in Tehran.
@JohnSF:
Larger missiles also generally require more elaborate launch facilities. Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon is not a large area, so this is not analogous to ineffectual USAF SAM-hunting in Iraq. The Israelis are capable of counter-battery fire from very close range, with missiles, air strikes or good old fashioned tube artillery. If Hezbollah fires a large ballistic missile, chances are the launch site is gone minutes later.
Related development: IDF has carried out sizable scale air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen
Pretty obvious message to Tehran: “That option won’t work for you either.”
Also: the distance to Hodeida is a range equivalent to much of Iran from Israel.
@Michael Reynolds:
Precisely.
If this escalates to the next level, the Hezbollah heavy missile arsenal will be a very rapidly diminishing asset.
And that is what Iran must now calculate.
Use it and lose it, or back off.
Rumint: Israel may have killed Maher Assad, the younger brother of Syrian president Bashar Assad.
How well I remember US presidents bragging to the world that the Taliban was no more! That al Qaeda was finished! That ISIS had been wiped off the face of the earth!
But I’m sure Netanyahu knows what he’s doing, and this will end once and for all any Palestinian resistance to the Israeli occupation.
Looking at the known command hierarchy of Hezbollah, it seems Israel has killed the entire upper tiers.
And a fair bet most of the lieutenants and staff are gone also.
This is one of most comprehensively effective command destruction operations ever.
And I suspect the IDF/IIA are nowhere near done yet.
@Ken_L: Hezbollah are not Palestinians.
Quite obviously, this does not resolve the issue re. Palestine/WestBank/Gaza.
What it has done has massively diminished the capability of Iran to act effectively in the Levant.
A sensible Israeli government would now try to reach an accommodation with Fatah and the Arab states.
Unfortunately “sensible” and “Netanyahu” usually only encounter each other in passing, and generally in the opposite direction.
Maybe it’s the most effective ever. I am still having trouble reconciling the intelligence and military services that have supposedly eliminated all of hezbollah leadership with the one that didnt see 10/7 coming. note that 10/7 happened in the week of the 50th anniversary of the last big surprise attack, at time when Israel should have been most vigilant. Also, Gaza was in their backyard.
I only see a couple choices here. Their intel used to suck but it got much better rapidly. It’s the same highly capable intel service but Israeli leadership ignored it or didnt allow it to function in Gaza. Or, Israel is exaggerating their successes as the intel service still isn’t all that good. Finally, maybe Hezbollah is just worse at security than Hamas.
Steve
@steve:
Some accounts indicate that Hezbollah’s activity in Syria over the past decade produced a lot of intelligence data and leads.
And also being on one side of an Arab civil war undercut Hezbollah’s standing as a champion of Arab unity and resistance, and produced a LOT of people with massive scores to settle.
Hamas, on the other hand, especially its operation in Gaza, seems to be a lot more circumscribed, and so more secure.