Outside the Beltway

Nate Silver: Odds Of Obama Winning At 91%

Doug Mataconis
17

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Well, to be precise, it’s 91.4% as of this moment:

Given that Silver bases his model on poll results, and that all of the polls are pointing toward an Obama victory, this isn’t surprising at all. Now, the question is are the polls, and Silver’s model, correct? Or, is Romney going to essentially prove every poll taken over the past month wrong and win the election tomorrow?

Since the polls are the only real evidence we have to tell us how this election may go, and since I find those who are letting blind partisanship cause them to reject the message the data is sending them, I have to say that Silver seems to be on the right track. We’ll see how things are tomorrow night.

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17 responses to “Nate Silver: Odds Of Obama Winning At 91%”

  1. edmondo Avatar
    edmondo

    This is sooooo exciting. In the next 36 to 48 hours Ann Romney should be getting her invitation to appear on the next season of Dancing with the Stars!

  2. edmond Avatar
    edmond

    This is sooooo exciting. In the next 36 to 48 hours Ann Romney should be getting her invitation to appear on the next season of Dancing with the Stars!

  3. KansasMom Avatar
    KansasMom

    Skinny girly geek for the win!

  4. Todd Avatar
    Todd

    Hey, my vote might actually count for something. I still have a hard time believing that Florida really turns Blue again tomorrow night .. but my mom’s been a volunteer who’s put in a LOT of hours for the Obama campaign in the Florida, so just for that reason alone, I hope that 55% chance comes in.

  5. KansasMom Avatar
    KansasMom

    Oh, I forgot balls. Skinny girly geek with the balls to stake his reputation on his math for the win.

  6. cd6 Avatar
    cd6

    HotAir did a poll and 94% of their readers are predicting a Romney win

    Gonna be some sad people tomorrow

  7. michael reynolds Avatar
    michael reynolds

    The important thing is that however it turns out we can all come together as one next Friday to watch Skyfall.

  8. Tsar Nicholas Avatar
    Tsar Nicholas

    In addition to the obvious pure political objectives (encourage Democrats; depress conservatives) the bogus media polls were about selling to the left something that would make them feel good; like a shrink prescribing Zoloft or a pusher dealing smack.

    That aside, if Obama wins, even if by exactly one corpse in Cleveland, Nate Silver will be to the left what Eric Clapton was to the London music scene. And if Romney wins, even if by a larger margin than W. Bush in ’04, the left will have that one covered too. Dissonantly. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

  9. mike Avatar
    mike

    You people just dont get it! Unless you like being forced to do what the government says you can do, which by the way is socialism, then you need to think about what ur doing! Obama had his chance and failed. Hell he even said he did!

  10. al-Ameda Avatar
    al-Ameda

    Which country do you think most conservatives will be emigrating to – North Korea or Iraq?

  11. michael reynolds Avatar
    michael reynolds

    @mike:

    Romney also had his chance. It was called the Bush administration. Sorry, not doing that again.

  12. Mr. Replica Avatar
    Mr. Replica

    Unless you like being forced to do what the government says you can do, which by the way is socialism, then you need to think about what ur doing!

    There fore the government telling people because of their sexual orientation that they can not fight for their country unless they lie about it, is socialism.
    There fore the government telling people they can not marry because it makes religious nuts feel icky, is socialism.
    There fore the government telling women they can not have access to readily available contraception or other reproductive services because it makes religious nuts feel icky, is socialism.

    Yet, only Obama supporters need to think about what they are doing? HA!

    (ps. I am not voting for Obama or Romney.)

  13. Gromitt Gunn Avatar
    Gromitt Gunn

    @Tsar Nicholas: I have an extremely hard time believing that you’ve heard of Eric Clapton.

  14. Tillman Avatar
    Tillman

    @Tsar Nicholas: I’ve just realized it. Lightning has struck my brain. You’re a funhouse mirror. You take all the weird crap people say about conservatives on this site and flip it around on liberals. But you make it your own with style (“wins by one corpse in Cleveland,” priceless).

    I have to say, a troll with style…that’s novel. You gave yourself away here:

    And if Romney wins, even if by a larger margin than W. Bush in ’04, the left will have that one covered too. Dissonantly.

  15. J-Dub Avatar
    J-Dub

    @michael reynolds: Republicans will think the sky is falling by tomorrow.

  16. Barry Avatar
    Barry

    @Tsar Nicholas: I read your comments, and feel your pain.

    Swwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet, sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet pain.

  17. stonetools Avatar
    stonetools

    John Hielemann, reporting to the Obama team:

    The Obama campaign’s confidence extends well beyond Pennsylvania. In conversations with an array of top advisers this morning, a clear picture emerged that Chicago believes it has Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire more or less in the bag; that it feels nearly as certain of carrying Ohio; and that Obama is just a tad ahead in Virginia. As for Colorado and Florida, Team Obama believes they are both too close to call, but thinks they could well win both; they are forthrightly pessimistic only about North Carolina among the nine battlegrounds.

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