While it may seem to those of us who pay steady and deep attention to the daily drumbeat of dumb in front of us that the public isn’t seeing what we see, the reality is that there is some penetration in the minds of the public (even if it’s slower and more shallow than we would all prefer to be the case). For example, from Fox News: Fox News Poll: Voters want major change amid economic and political discontent.
Voters say Democrats can better handle income inequality (+22 points), healthcare (+21), inflation (+10), the economy (+9), and foreign policy (+7). Republicans hold the advantage on crime (+7 points), while government spending (Democrats +3) and national security (R +2) are more evenly divided. On immigration, the GOP had an 8-point edge in April. Now, Democrats are preferred by one point.
Here’s the graph:
These are pretty stunning, especially “Inflation and Prices” and “The Economy,” as those were the areas that propelled Trump back into office in November of 2024. Further, the near tie on immigration shows substantial erosion of one of Trump’s signature issues and is a signal that the ICE escapades are not being greeted well by the country. Likewise, the mere 2-point gap on national security, a traditional area of Republican strength, reflects discontent with the Iran war.
There is also an enthusiasm gap.
More Democrats (68%) say they are extremely motivated to vote in November than Republicans (57%) by an 11-point margin. By a 25-point spread, more MAGA Republicans (66%) are extremely motivated than non-MAGA Republicans (41%).
And a support gap.
If the election were today, 53% of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 46% the Republican. That 7-point edge is just outside the poll’s margin of error. Democrats were up by 5 points in April. Notably, 53% is the highest percentage either party has received on the generic House ballot in Fox News polling since 1996.
Additional numbers in the piece show general unhappiness with the economy.
Emerson also has a new poll: July 2026 National Poll: Democrats with 11-Point Generic Ballot Advantage.
Here’s the relevant bit for this post:
Recognizing that district boundaries (whether we mean the ones inside of states, or the states themselves) have a huge amount of influence on our elections, rendering a lot of seats not competitive, none of this is good news for Republicans. There is sufficient discontent and desire for change to transform elections that otherwise might have been slam-dunks in the GOP’s favor into losable contests. It is why the Cook Report has one Republican state (NC) leaning D, and three Republican states (AK, ME, and OH) as “toss-ups” for the US Senate at the moment.
This election is likely to provide further evidence that the main motivator in elections is the way the electorate feels about the sitting administration and that those feelings are typically linked to the economy.
While historical counter-factuals are impossible to prove, I am willing to suggest that if Trump had simply sat on the economy that he was gifted by the Biden administration and avoided tariff nonsense and the Iran war, we would not be taking seriously the prospects of a Democratic Senate being seated in 2027.
One last graph is parting. While the decline in approval has slowed in recent weeks, Trump remains rather unpopular. I suspect that if we persist in gasoline being over $4/gallon nationally, the trend will resume in the negative direction (source).
