Updated x2: Russian Prisoner Swap Brings WSJ Reporter, Former Marine, and 14 Others Home
This morning the excellent news broke that Russia had released Walll Street Journal Reporter Evan Gershkovich and ex-marine Paul Whelan, and they are beginning their journey back to the US. While details on this are still emerging, Bloomberg and the Guardian seperately report that the release is part of a larger prisoner exchange with Russia:
Sources with knowledge of the planned exchange confirmed to the Guardian that a major swap would take place on Thursday in a location outside Russia. They declined to make further details public until after the swap had taken place owing to sensitivity of the matter.
Gershkovich and the former US marine Paul Whelan, both accused by Russian authorities of espionage, had already been freed and were en route to a destination outside Russia, Bloomberg reported. The Guardian understands the exchange will also involve Russian political prisoners being freed as well as numerous Russians jailed in the west for espionage, murder and other crimes being returned to Russia.
This is, from just about everyone’s perspective, really exciting news. Gershkovich has been in Russian Custody, slowly moving through sham show trials, for more than a year:
Gershkovich was arrested in March 2023 while reporting in the city of Ekaterinburg and was last month sentenced to 16 years in prison for espionage. He pleaded not guilty and the Wall Street Journal and the US government have dismissed the charges as nonsense.
Beyond the US Negotiating team and the Biden Administration, Gershkocich’s colleagues at the Wall Street Journal who have been keeping his plight in the public space since his capture. Less attention has been paid (at least in recent months) to Paul Whelan, who has been in Russian custody for almost six years. Here are details on his arrest and conviction from Bloomberg:
Whelan was detained by agents from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) in a room in Moscow’s Metropol Hotel, near the Kremlin, on Dec. 28, 2018. Investigators said he was a spy for military intelligence with a rank of colonel or higher, and had been caught red-handed with a computer flash drive containing classified information. Whelan said he had been in Russia for a friend’s wedding and had been given the drive in a sting by a Russian friend. He said he had thought it contained holiday photos. After a trial held entirely behind closed doors that U.S. diplomats said was unfair and opaque, Whelan, now 52, was convicted of spying in 2020, and sentenced to 16 years in a maximum security jail. He is currently being held in the IK-17 penal colony in the Mordovia region, east of Moscow.
Whelan waited a long time for release during which time he saw Russia exchange other prisoners with the US. He was not part of the 2022 exchange that freed American Basketball Player Brittney Griner from Russian custody.
Today’s a day to celebrate for all involved!
[Update 1: The Insider is reporting some additional details about the trade. In all Russia exchanged 16 prisoners for 8 prisoners held in a variety of countries. Three were behind held by the United States. From The Insider:
Russia has completed a prisoner exchange with the U.S. and Germany. According to data available to The Insider, the released political prisoners include Evan Gershkovich, Vladimir Kara-Murza, Paul Whelan, Ilya Yashin, Alsu Kurmasheva, Andrei Pivovarov, Oleg Orlov, Alexandra Skochilenko, Lilia Chanysheva, Ksenia Fadeeva, Rico Krieger, Kevin Lik, Demuri Voronin, Vadim Ostanin, Patrick Schobel, and Herman Moyzhes. In return, Russia has received FSB operative Vadim Krasikov, along with multiple spies and fraudsters.
Since Outside the Beltway is a political blog, and I need those sweet paychecks from George Soros to keep coming to me, I think its worth calling out a couple political observations around this release.
1: Paul Whelan was arrested and convicted during the Trump administration. I share this only as a reminder that, despite his instance that he’s tough on Russia and respected by them, Russia was still arresting Americans and putting them through sham trials.
2. American jury trials are nothing like sham trials in Russia. A popular theme in some conservative and right-wing circles is that Former President Trump and many of his followers have been subjected to “Russian-style Sham Trials.” In pulling together this article, I found this BBC deep dive into Paul Whelan’s case, which included this moment:
On 15 June, it took the chief judge just 1 minute 20 seconds to reach the key words in his verdict.
“Moscow City Court…finds Paul Nicholas Whelan guilty,” he read from the typed sheet, adding that the 16-year sentence would be served in a high-security facility for the most dangerous offenders.
The judge then turned to address the defendant, who was standing in a glass cage guarded by two FSB security officers in black balaclavas. Watching from the wooden courtroom benches, socially distanced and in medical facemasks, were the ambassadors of the US, UK and Canada.
“Whelan, do you understand the sentence?” he asked.
The American, whose glasses, side parting and blue sweater that he wore to each court appearance gave him the look of a neat, middle-aged librarian, looked back at the judge blankly.
His Russian wasn’t up to this.
“Nothing’s translated, Your Honour,” the 50-year-old protested, sending an interpreter scurrying over to explain his fate. The three judges swept off the podium and out of court.
3. Former President Trump campaigned on the promise that only he could get Gershkovich released. Take this comment from just two weeks ago on July 20th:
“Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was just sentenced to 16 years in prison by a Russian Court. Biden will NEVER GET HIM OUT, unless he pays a ‘king’s ransom.’” Trump posted to his Truth Social site.
“I will get him out FOR NO COMPENSATION immediately following our victory on November 5th, and it will be my great honor to do so,” he wrote, adding that people should vote for him, and the Journal should “STOP BEING STUPID!!!”
I expect that Trump will declare this “the worst deal ever.” First, I don’t think Gershlovich and Whelan would agree with that. Second, getting 16 prisoners in return for giving up 8 seems like a good deal to me. That said, I guess he could argue that the US gave up 3 and only got 2 in return, but that doesn’t feel catchy. Of course he could claim that he would have been able to get them back without giving up any prisoners–if you believe that, well, you’re probably not reading this by now. In the end this does rob him on a favorite talking point.
[Update 2: So the Trump camp spin appears to be that Putin released this hostages because he’s afriad that Trump will be elected in November and therefore wants to get this done now. It feels a little underwear gnomes to me, but maybe this dog will hunt with some folks.
Not that it will make a difference to the WSJ Editorial page.
Oddly the WSJ is not reporting this.
@Michael Reynolds:
Michael,
During the cold war, there were a few times where the Soviets agreed to allowed some dissidents or persons who wanted out of the USSR to immigrate as long as we didn’t make political hay out of it.
Indeed, excellent news. Welcome home, gentlemen.
ETA. I hope both gentlemen get the help they’ll need to recover from their ordeal. Especially Mr. Whelan.
The damage (physical, emotional, and psychological) from 16 years in a Russian high security camp is impossible for any of us here to conceive.
Cold War II is going to be even more bizarre than the first one.
What are the chances that Putin’s given up on Trump and is trying to make him look stupid by doing a deal with Biden?
@Michael Reynolds: Interesting. I briefly forgot that their website was wsj.com, since I never actually go there. So I simply typed wallstreetjournal.com. Amazingly, I’m simply getting a timeout. No re-direct, nothing. Somebody should buy this domain name and put up a parody.
@Not the IT Dept.: And that gets to my other thought. I almost could have believed that Putin would have held on to the hostages until Trump was re-elected. I’m not sure what his game is, unless he knows Trump is a lost cause.
On a podcast, Julia Ioffe said that at least some part of the prisoner exchange is a “Fuck you” from Putin to Trump. Putin doesn’t like being treated like Trump’s servant, and he also doesn’t feel that Trump’s been particularly helpful as of late.
And @ Flat Earth Luddite, the at least slightly good news is that Whelan’s only been in prison for five years or so, not sixteen. And seems to have maintained a decent attitude for most of it.
@Kevin: If that’s what it is, I think it might have to do with how Trump was able to stop an Immigration bill, but did not exercise the same energy or have the same success stopping the Ukraine Aid package.
@Kevin:
Maybe.
After all, El Felón went and effed up the workings of Congress earlier this year, but not to prevent more weapons and aid to reach Ukraine, as Mad Vlad preferred. Instead he disrupted an immigration bill, which Vlad cares not the smallest bit about.
Or maybe Mad Vlad’s calculus doesn’t always include the Convicted Felon.
Like stopping inflation and cutting crime, another promise Trump has already fulfilled without actually doing anything.
I suspect it’s more that, unlike the Iran hostage crisis, the Russians can see Gershkovich isn’t a big deal in this election and Putin just let the bureaucracy proceed routinely with negotiation.
If we haven’t already we should not allow any more Americans to go to Russia or if they do it is with the understanding they are stuck there if they get arrested. Too bad if you want to go to a friend’s wedding.
Steve
@Kevin:
I got the impression in Trump’s term that Putin discovered he could play Trump like a fiddle, but Trump being what he is, he wouldn’t stay played. It was conventional wisdom that Trump agreed with whoever talked to him last.
Vibes seem to be moving to a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. Putin may prefer dealing with a stable counter-party over Trump. It could be his US experts have told him Trump’s a lost cause. Or, it could just be that this is trivia, signifying nothing. It would be interesting to know whether Russian support of Trump online and otherwise has slacked.
Again, I want to show some appreciation for the Biden administration getting things done here, demonstrably helping their fellow Americans. Of course there were many, many advocates inside and outside the government for getting Gershkovich and Whelan and the others home, and that kept the pressure on. It wasn’t quick and it wasn’t easy, but everybody’s work here paid off. Well done!
I find it interesting that the media keep referring to Paul Whelan as an ex-Marine or veteran without the additional info that he was tossed out of the Marines with a bad conduct discharge for larceny: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Whelan_(security_director)
His value in the deal must not have been very high.
Monica Alba (NBC White House Correspondent):
Negotiating a high stakes prisoner swap while battling COVID in the midst of ageist smear campaign would be chill af Dark Brandon style stuff. Respeck.
@Scott:
The details of Whelan’s story and doings in Russia have always been shady and head-scratchy.
I’m guessing he’s in for a longer-than-normal CIA interview upon repatriation.
@Scott:
My understanding is “ex-” is used instead of former in cases where the person had a dishonorable or bad conduct discharge.
If some of our commenters who have been in the service can confirm that, I’d appreciate it.
Generally speaking, I think returning Americans is a good policy. In drafting the post I was going to note that there was at least one other American arrested and held in Russia during the Trump administration. However, the case of Taylor Reed was pretty complex, and he very well may have deserved to be arrested. Reed came home in the 2022 exchange that also released Brittany Griner.
Vance credits Trump for the release. These folks have no shame.
@Not the IT Dept.: “What are the chances that Putin’s given up on Trump and is trying to make him look stupid by doing a deal with Biden?”
Poor, IMHO. Trump sill has a horrifingly good chance of winning, and is the best foreign puppet that *anybody* has ever had.
@A country lawyer:
What on earth did Trump have to do with it?
@CSK:
He means Trump and Vance have no shame.
@CSK: My guess is that Trump was hoping to be one of the prisoners being exchanged.
I don’t like that we are rewarding hostage taking by Putin, but I’ll just grit my teeth and hope this does not lead to more hostages being taken.
No good options here. Glad we got these people out.
In fact, one of the people returned to Russia was mentioned on this very site as an absurd demand:
https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/russias-absurd-demands-for-griner-and-whalen-release/
I expect that not running for re-election has freed Biden to make unpleasant but likely right decisions. I hate this exchange, but the alternative is probably slightly more hateful.
At least the State Department’s travel advisory to Russia is clear:
They get a 4 out of 4 for “don’t go there.”
Morals of the story:
1) Arrest lots of Russians, and Russian agents. On grounds both genuine and spurious. Especially siloviki kids who drop litter or jaywalks
2) Deny granting travel visa to Russia to anyone, until they have been required to come in to the foreign office/state dept/whatever and given a prolonged lecture, with pictures, on the lines of “Why you really, really, should not go there.”
What is Putin doing? We have all of his best hockey players!
@JohnSF:
On the one hand, I don’t recall many US or Western reporters or tourists being detained in the USSR during the first Cold War*. On the other hand, it was a lot harder and more expensive to visit the USSR back then; these days, sanctions and all, there’s much better connectivity by air.
*I recall Nicholas Daniloff of US News and World Report was arrested on espionage charges in Gorbachev’s time. But he was released after a couple of weeks.
It was so nice to read Trump’s gracious and patriotic Truth Social post, welcoming these Americans home. /s
J/K of course, he was as classless and undignified as ever. What a sad sack of a person he is.
@Kathy: Different situation completely during the cold war. My boss at the produce warehouse was granted one of the first ever common citizen type post-Cold War visas to the USSR as a delegate on a trade mission. When he came back, he described how eerie it felt to get off the plane in Moscow and have a complete stranger walk up to him and his wife, address them both by name, and then be told simply to please follow him.
The Soviets lacked in social graces at the time, but doing the stuff that Putin does would have started a war under the circumstances of the era.
@Kathy: During the Cold War, there wasn’t that much travel between the two sides, and both sides were trying to win a cultural victory, so visitors were often shown the best side of the country they were visiting. Robert Heinlein wrote an essay about his visit to the USSR; they rolled out the red carpet, but it wasn’t a very good carpet.
@Kathy:
The Soviet leadership were not exactly fun people; but they considered themselves civilised, and generally adhered to the codes of international law regarding foreign civilians.
Despite the odd assassination or sponsoring of terrorists.
Putin and the siloviki are simply cynical thugs.
@Scott: I’m with you.The Reuters report on his release points that out: https://www.reuters.com/world/echoes-cold-war-paul-whelans-detention-release-2024-08-01/
But I guess it’s tough to say “disgraced former Marine” repeatedly.
@Jay L Gischer: “If that’s what it is, I think it might have to do with how Trump was able to stop an Immigration bill, but did not exercise the same energy or have the same success stopping the Ukraine Aid package.”
I think that it might have been some Senators and a few Reps not being traitors to Russia, and Biden pointing out to Johnson that he’d hang the fall of Ukraine around his neck.