Embattled Republican Senator Rick Santorum is gaining ground, now trailing Bob Casey, Jr. by six points in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.
In the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. leads incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum 48 – 42 percent among likely voters, including leaners, with 5 percent for Green party candidate Carl Romanelli and 5 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. In a two-way matchup among registered voters, Casey leads Sen. Santorum 47 – 40 percent, with 11 percent undecided. This compares to a 52 – 34 percent Casey lead in a June 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University. In this latest survey, 27 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they still might change their mind.
By a 49 – 42 percent margin, Pennsylvania likely voters say Santorum does not deserve to be reelected. Among registered voters who back Casey, 42 percent say their vote is mainly against Santorum, while 50 percent say their vote is mainly for the Democrat.
“Bob Casey’s lead over Sen. Santorum has shrunk to single digits in part because the Green Party candidate is siphoning votes from the Democratic challenger. It’s not surprising Sen. Santorum has narrowed the gap, but his bid for re-election is still in trouble as long as almost 50 percent of the voters say he does not deserve another term,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Casey still has the advantage as long as Santorum’s job approval is mixed and his favorability rating remains in negative territory. But three in 10 likely voters say they don’t know enough about Casey to form an opinion, and the key to the election may well be how those voters will swing once they get to know him. Santorum gets no help from President Bush, whose approval rating remains near record lows,” Richards added.
Richards’ analysis strikes me as plausible. For an incumbent to be trailing six points inside 90 days to the election, despite a spoiler candidate sucking 5 points from his leading challenger, is hardly a good sign. And 49 percent negatives are nothing to write home about, either.
Still, the Santorum campaign (which is touting this poll in a press release) is glad to at least be on the upswing. Casey had an 18 point lead in this same poll in June. That this race is still competitive should give the Republicans some hope.
UPDATE: Pollsters Gerry Daly and Bill Cullo have some interesting thoughts on the poll at Crosstabs.
