Saturday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
·
Saturday, April 18, 2026
·
9 comments
OTB relies on its readers to support it. Please consider helping by becoming a monthly contributor through Patreon or making a one-time contribution via PayPal. Thanks for your consideration.
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
The Black Death may have been propagated by massive volcanic eruption(s) in the tropics. It’s very possible that the volcanic ash lead to a vitamin D deficiency which left Europeans much more susceptible to disease.
@Gavin:
Unfortunately, I think that article is a prime example of sensationalist overclaiming.
It happens quite a lot, actually, when it comes to “big” historical questions. For instance when a medical professional diagnoses a famous historical person from a painting or some such, or when a scrap of pottery is dug up in Israel/Palestine, which then inevitable “proves” some Biblical factoid.
Because if you look at it very little of that article makes any sense. I mean, the story goes like this:
* Bad weather/bad harvests in the Mediterranean in 1340s which may have been caused by a volcanic eruption -> Sure, OK.
* In response, Italian merchant republics started trading grain with the Black Sea area, with grain ships transporting the rats that brought the Plague to Europe.
However, these trade routes existed long before the spell of bad weather in the 1340s, as the article itself acknowledges:
Thus, there would have been shipborne trade between the Black Sea and Italy regardless. Which makes it safe to assume that plague-infested rats would have made it to Italy anyway.
In this case is quite likely that the original research made some sort of small but useful contribution to the scholarship (which is pretty much never the case with historical diagnoses or Biblical archeology), but then somebody thought to create a bit of extra buzz by pointlessly connecting the research’s findings to a major historical event.
I absolutely hate it when that happens because it basically relies on (and further strengthens) the ignorance of the audience to give a small boost to some researcher’s career.
Of course, there are structural reasons tied to how scholarship is funded that cause this to happen.
Still, no bueno.
A few days ago, aviation blogs reported United’s CEO pitched the Taco so-called administration on a merger between United and American.
I would love to say not even this clown car of idiots at DOJ, FTC, etc. would go along with allowing a massive airline monopoly. And if I ever find a way to say it convincingly, I will.
On related matters, Spirit is begging El Taco for a bailout to avoid liquidation.
This has a great chance of success. El Taco pour good money at a bad investment? That’s practically his MO. It won’t even be his money. It will be your money.
Mulling over whether to replace one of our cars, so considering if we go EV, which would work for us, hybrid, then the question of plug-in or mild or a good old fashion ICE that is a known commodity.
While hybrid have a certain logic, being at sort of the best of both worlds, though some of the cursory reading that I’ve done indicates that plug-ins are more troublesome than mild, with EV’s being the most troublesome. EV/plug-in issues are blamed, logically, new tech teething pains. So if we go that route, I’d lease rather than buy, it makes no sense to own an out of warranty maintenance nightmare.
I’ve been paying attention to a neighbor, who bought an EV about a year ago. After she had it about a month, there was a service loaner in her drive for about a week. That was repeated a few months later and at the beginning of the winter, the car went off on a flatbed and was gone for several weeks. This morning, I noticed another loaner in the drive…
Picked up the auto issue of consumer reports and will peruse that. I hate car shopping and do so even more now because new vehicle shows are mostly gone.
@Sleeping Dog:
Having driven hybrid electrics (HEVs) for a few years, I can’t imagine buying a new car with less electric power functionality. The mild hybrids, as I understand them, improve fuel economy but don’t have some of the features of an HEV with a several hundred-volt traction battery: EV-only driving while stop-and-go and at low speeds, A/C working with the engine off, engine running only long/often enough to charge the battery while stopped in the car.
A plug-hybrid would be nice, but the PHEV models sold in the US seem limited, and many of them are the more powerful varieties that many of us don’t need. And if course a BEV would be nice—-for me, maybe as a second car.
Next on my late night reading list, once I’m done with Babylon 5, is The Space merchants, by Cyril Kornbluth and Frederick Pohl.
I read it years ago, and never got around to re-reading it. then a few days ago Tom Grant, the non-OTB half of Ancient Geeks, mentioned obtaining a copy in his substack. I wondered if I still had mine, and I found it.
What if you won a Nobel Peace Prize, and then gave away your medal to a moron for nothing.
El Taco doesn’t mind dictators and oppressors, so long as they flatter him and pay him off.
Today’s History Lesson
April 18, 1906
San Francisco Earthquake
I lived in San Francisco for a year ending in June of 1975. I remember a few minor temblors but nothing to shake me out of bed.
My wheelchair bound quadriplegic friend Joe who was my roommate when I lived there spent 20 years living in The City by the Bay. He was living there on October 17, 1989 when the Loma Prieta earthquake killed 63 people. I was able to reach him by telephone the next day. He said the power was out but the water still on. He lived on the third floor of his building and couldn’t get out for a few days as the elevator was not working . Fortunately his personal attendant was able to get to him every day. He also had other friends to help him out. It took him a while but he finally relocated to Chico, California to get away fron the earthquake threat.
@Gavin:
@drj:
This fits in with a long-running line of hypotheses on environmental factors that increased the impact of plague. But it was almost certainly multi-causal.
European population had grown considerably up to the mid 1300’s; it was pressing on the limits of what medieaval agriculture could sustain.
Bad harvests due to adverse weather produced malnourishment.
Damp weather produced fungal blooms in stored grain, which was in any case inadequately dried and stored; and food shortage meant even mouldy grain got eaten.
Resulting mycotoxins also weakened immune response.
Weather shifts that produced cold, wet summers in Europe also seem to have produced drought in central Asia, inducing migrations of plague bearing rats. Also it may have prompted shifts in nomad populations that may also have been carriers.
Combine those with the horrendously unsanitary conditions of medieaval life, add in a virulent new plague variant both bubonic and pneumonic, and you have the “perfect storm”
It remains very difficult to try to model all the factors,and their relative importance.
And it’s important to remember that some previous and subsequent plague oubtreaks could be almost as damaging where they took hold eg “Plague of Justinian” in the 540’s, Great Plague of London 1665/1666. the Third Plaugue in China and India in the 1880’s.