Some Polls
Things continue to be tight, yet Harrisward.
Via CNN: CNN polls across six battlegrounds find Georgia and Pennsylvania are key toss-ups
Likely voters in Wisconsin break 50% for Harris to 44% for Trump, and in Michigan, it’s 48% Harris to 43% Trump. In Arizona, Trump lands at 49% to Harris’ 44%. In Georgia and Nevada, 48% back Harris to 47% for Trump, and in Pennsylvania, the candidates are tied at 47%.
And here are some local polls from MI, via WDIV is Detroit: New poll shows where Michigan voters stand in Trump-Harris race.
The race shifts when you look at the 91% of voters that say they are definite voters. Among definite voters Harris holds a 1.6% lead over Trump.
- 45.7% Kamala Harris
- 44.1% Donald Trump
- 3.9% Robert F Kennedy Jr.
- 2.3% Third Party Options
- 3.9% Undecided
I am assuming that RFK, Jr. is still on the ballot in MI, and hence his inclusion? Else, it makes no sense to be polling about him. Regardless, there is no way in the world that at the eventual two-party vote share in MI is going to be 89.8% in November. Either there are a significant number of respondents who will make up their minds, or they will be staying home.
Meanwhile, via The Hill: Republicans fret over Trump’s freefall among women.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll published Sunday showed Harris with a huge lead over Trump among women, 54 percent to 41 percent, while Trump enjoyed a more modest 5-percentage point lead over Harris among men, 51 percent to 46 percent.
Especially concerning for Republicans, the ABC/Ipsos poll showed Harris’s standing among women had jumped significantly compared to before the Democratic convention in Chicago, when she led Trump by only 6 points among women.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll published Thursday also showed Harris with a 13-point lead among women, 49 percent to 13 percent, and Trump with a smaller lead among men voters.
Both polls showed Harris with a 4-percentage point overall lead on Trump nationwide.
These aren’t good enough. We’ve re-captured the ‘Biden’s too old,’ soft Dems. But we’re still within the margin of error.
We have the edge in money, enthusiasm and GOTV. They have racism, misogyny and the electoral college advantage. It’s too close to call, because Americans are dumb AF.
@Michael Reynolds: Given the prevalence of Dark Money, I’m not sure we have a money advantage.