Some Swing State Polls

More good news for Biden.

September 12, 2020

Comments

The NYT/Siena College Poll has more good news for the Bide campaign: Trump Onslaught Against Biden Falls Short of a Breakthrough. Specifically, Biden leads in Minnesota (+9), Nevada (+4), New Hampshire (+3), and Wisconsin (+5). In all four cases, this is better than Clinton did in 2016.

Further, Mr. Trump is still struggling to garner the level of support most incumbent presidents enjoy at this late stage of the campaign. In none of the four states did Mr. Trump’s support reach the 45-percent mark — a particularly ominous sign given the absence of serious third-party candidates, who in 2016 helped him prevail with less than 50 percent of the vote in a series of battleground states.

Of special interest is that in Minnesota and Wisconsin Biden bests Trump on race relations (56%-37%), unifying America (53%-38%), and is essentially tied on violent crimes (48%-46%) and law and order (48%-47%). These are all noteworthy given the unrest that has occurred in those states and predictions that those events would severely erode Biden’s position in those locations in particular.

Like in other surveys, the other area Trump bests Biden is the economy (45% for Biden and 50% for Trump–again in MN and WI specifically).

2 responses to “Some Swing State Polls”

Raoul

September 12, 2020 at 8:44 pm

I’m surprised it is close in NH and especially Nevada – the poll seems off there but for some reason pollsters always undercount Dems in that state. I can easily envision 269-269 if Pa goes Rep.

1
Kylopod

September 13, 2020 at 5:52 am

@Raoul:

I can easily envision 269-269 if Pa goes Rep.

I was surprised to come upon this map the other day when I was examining the 538 averages in each state. For most of this cycle, I assumed WI would be the hardest state for Dems to flip among the Big Three, and initially this assumption seemed to be reflected in the polls. If Dems flip MI and PA but the rest of the 2016 map remains the same, Trump would win a razor-thin 270-268. If either ME-02 or NE-02–but not both–then flips to Biden, it becomes an electoral tie. This is the map that would result. If both districts flip, Biden wins 270-268.

But the recent polling has shown surprises–the biggest one is how close PA is compared with other states. Biden is not only doing better in WI and MI than in PA, he’s doing better in WI and MI than in two Clinton states: MN and NV. Furthermore, he’s doing better in AZ than in PA. That means that if he wins WI, MI, and AZ, but the rest of the 2016 map remains the same, it’s an electoral tie. This would be the resulting map.

I wish there was more polling in ME-02 and NE-02, because both could be extremely crucial in this cycle.

I can’t explain why PA is polling more Republican than those other states. It was supposed to be the Trump state that would be easiest for Biden to flip, given his own roots in the state. And until recently, the polls didn’t show it as harder than those other states. Of course this is all premature, and could change with further polling, or could be totally off come election time. But it is pretty curious we’re seeing this pattern at all.