Outside the Beltway

Comments

1. Daryl says:
   Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 06:54

   According to a WSJ article (paywalled) Fatso is flummoxed by Irans ability to rapidly close the Strait.

   President Donald Trump has expressed surprise and frustration at how easily the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and is astonished that as little as one guy with a drone can project such power….People familiar with Trump’s thinking told the Wall Street Journal that the president has been grappling with concerns over potentially sending American soldiers to try to capture Kharg Island, a crucial hub for Iranian oil exports. Trump was assured such a mission was possible, according to the report, but is concerned about the possibility of mass American casualties.

   So much winning…

   https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-public-bravado-private-fear-59814dca?st=cBXjDp&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

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2. Kathy says:
   Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 09:04

   On the “opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, I was reminded of this bit in The Producers.

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3. CSK says:
   Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 09:41

   According to NBC News, 63 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance.

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4. Daryl says:
   Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 09:52

   @CSK:
   FAKE NEWS!!! Fatso is the greatest President EVER!!!

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5. charontwo says:
   Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 10:10

   Here is an Israeli take on recent events in Iran:

   “Amit Segal”

   Despite Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi’s announcement on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” to commercial traffic, the IRGC Navy attacked several commercial vessels the very next day, declaring that no vessel of “any type or nationality” is permitted passage. This jarring disconnect may be a sign of something more serious than desperation: a coup d’état.

   It is quite the allegation, but let’s look at the evidence. Beyond the strait’s schizophrenic travel regulations, the Foreign Ministry confirmed that new talks will occur, even though a date has not yet been set. Meanwhile, IRGC-affiliated media simultaneously announced that Iran has refused to participate in another round of negotiations with the United States due to “excessive” U.S. demands.

   Furthermore, the institutions of the Iranian state seem to be picking sides. The Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters—roughly the equivalent of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff—has released a statement defending the IRGC attacks in the waterway. The Supreme National Security Council joined the chorus, declaring that Iran will control the strait until the war ends.

   The split runs along a well-trodden divide: On one side, the political leadership, represented by President Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf; on the other, the men with the guns, led by an IRGC firmly under the control of Ahmad Vahidi.

   Let’s meet our aspiring generalissimo.

   Vahidi boasts a notoriously dark résumé, beginning as the IRGC representative during the Iran-Contra debacle that almost upended the Reagan administration, before playing a direct role in the 1994 AMIA Jewish community center bombing in Argentina that killed 85 people. His most recent experience was bathing in blood during his tenure as interior minister in 2022. It was Vahidi’s forces that severely beat and later murdered Mahsa Amini in the hospital over an “improper hijab”—igniting the Woman, Life, Freedom protests. Those same forces under his command executed the ruthless crackdowns that followed, with a death toll estimated as high as 5,000.

   In short: even The New York Times would struggle to label Vahidi a moderate in his—hopefully imminent—obituary.

   Yesterday’s shipping attacks confirm he has already assumed de facto control over Iran’s military apparatus, but his ambitions clearly extend beyond martial domination.

   Preceding the talks in Islamabad, Vahidi reportedly attempted to insert a commissar—Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohammad Zolghadr—into the delegation to keep an eye on the negotiations, despite the resistance of the political leadership. Zolghadr’s mandate was intended to inform leaders in Tehran if the diplomatic delegation strayed from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s wishes. Though, given Mojtaba’s continued incapacitation, calling them Vahidi’s wishes might be more accurate. Ultimately, Zolghadr, likely bitter over his exclusion and opposed to what he saw brewing in Islamabad—specifically the delegation’s flexibility regarding support for the Axis of Resistance—issued a scathing report, prompting senior leaders in Tehran to recall the negotiating team entirely.

   If there is a coup underway, its most immediate effect will be on the negotiations. Despite his denials, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf is the official on the phone with the Americans. But even if he agrees to terms, the current power struggle does not bode well for his ability to hand over regular Iranian dust, let alone the nuclear enriched powder.

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6. CSK says:
   Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 10:23

   DARYL:

   Well, per the WSJ, he’s contemplated awarding himself the Medal of Honor.

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7. Michael Reynolds says:
   Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 10:29

   Donald Trump has sidelined JD Vance as his chief negotiator with Iran after a string of setbacks.

   The wheels on the bus go round and round, right over Vance.

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8. steve222 says:
   Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 12:55

   @charontwo: That’s way too complicated. I thought it was pretty clear that as soon as Trump said he would keep the blockade in effect Iran would respond and close the strait. I actually wonder if Iran is deliberately trying to provoke large gyrations in the stock market as its own o the few things Trump seems to notice.

   Steve

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9. dazedandconfused says:
   Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 17:42

   @Kathy: Yet more fitting humor.

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10. JohnSF says:
    Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 17:47

    @Michael Reynolds:
    So, back to Witkoff and Kushner?
    Who are arguably even more incompetent than Vance.
    Interesting that Rubio is still not the point-man.
    Could either be internecine power games wanting Rubio sidelined; or Rubio sensibly preferring to stay out of the frame; or most likely a bit of both.

    lol, what an utter shitshow this administration is.

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11. JohnSF says:
    Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 17:54

    @dazedandconfused:
    @Kathy:
    I’m tempted to work up a Dire Straits playlist right now, lol

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12. dazedandconfused says:
    Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 19:50

    @JohnSF: Probably told Trump he is too busy with Cuba and Venezuela. Might be smart enough, anyway. Considering how much he likes to be in the press it’s a strong indication he isn’t down with this Iran business.

    If I were him I’d be whispering into Donald’s ear the tale of George HW Bush. George the Smarter ran arguably the cleanest, most successful and most popular major military operation in US history -but got voted out of office in the next election anyway.
    Thus, “It’s the economy, stupid” was born.

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13. Michael Reynolds says:
    Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 21:42

    @JohnSF:
    Trump can’t help but sabotage Rubio and Vance. He’ll sabotage anyone who might even be thinking about succeeding him in 2028. It’s his nature. I would not be surprised to see Rubio fired – he’s a potential 25th amendment vote. I wonder if Trump knows he can’t fire Vance.

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14. Kathy says:
    Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 23:53

    @Michael Reynolds:

    No, no. Pence was the one he couldn’t fire, Couch Boy is different. He’s a wholly owned subsidiary of Taco Grifters, Inc. He can be fired, sold, spun off, or liquidated at need.

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