Party-Switching and the Senate

Are Sinema and Machin going to jump ship?

Netanyahu Finally Out, But for How Long?

Israel’s long national nightmare is over. Or is it?

Trump’s Generals

My contribution to a continuing debate.

The GOP: Not a Civil War, Not a Purge

The GOP is actually pretty healthy at the moment, despite some public rhetoric to the contrary.

More on Social Policy and Comparisons

Mostly about how not to do it.

Sullivan on Biden (and a Discussion of Fiscal Policy)

On fiscal policy and historical comparisons.

Census Results Likely a Boost for GOP

The long shift of population from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt continues—with the unusual exception of California.

The Republican Advantage in the House

Any “fair” drawing of districts will yield a GOP advantage over time.

President Donald J. Trump greets guests on the South Lawn of the White House Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2020, prior to boarding Marine One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Md. to begin his trip to Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Nevada. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian) President Donald J. Trump greets guests on the South Lawn of the White House Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2020, prior to boarding Marine One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Md. to begin his trip to Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Nevada. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)

The Republicans are Going Nowhere

The party is unlikely to suffer consequences for its anti-democracy actions.

306

All the states have been called.

Not as Bad as We Feared

Revisiting predictions about what would happen if what has happened happened.

Some Swing State Polls

More good news for Biden.

A Note on 2016 Polling

Because sometimes a comment starts to become a post.

100,000 Americans Dead from Coronavirus

Yet another grim milestone.

The End of China’s Growth?

Or just a bump in the road?

I Was Right All Along, Except When I Was Wrong

Looking back at my predictions about the 2020 Democratic race.

Why 2020 Democrats Were Able to Consolidate the Moderates and 2016 Republicans Weren’t

The races are more alike—and yet more different—than we seem to remember.

Brokered Democratic Convention a Real Possibility

Could the fevered dream really come true?

What if November’s Loser Refuses to Concede?

There’s a very real possibility the legitimacy of the 2020 election will be contested.

Pro-Democracy Voters Send A Strong Message To Beijing On Hong Kong

Hong Kong voters send a strong message to Beijing, and the world.

After Months Of Protests, Hong Kong Heads To The Polls

After months of anti-government protests, Hong Kong headed to the polls in record number.

The Next Steps Forward On Impeachment

The next steps in the impeachment process are relatively easy to predict.

US Capitol Rotunda US Capitol Rotunda

Donald Trump, Joseph McCarthy, And Profiles In Republican Cowardice

Much like it did during the McCarthy Era, the Republican Party has to decide what side of history it wishes to be on. The right side, or the wrong side.

Parliament Defies Boris Johnson On Brexit

The House of Commons handed Prime Minister Boris Johnson a huge loss yesterday, throwing the short-term future of Brexit into doubt.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg Has Cancer Treatment For Second Time In A Year

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg underwent three weeks of cancer treatment earlier this summer. The second such treatment in a year, and the fourth in the last twenty years.

Beto O’Rourke Once Again Rules Out Running For Senate

Beto O’Rourke is once again rejecting the idea of running for Senate instead of President.

Raise The Debt Ceiling? Let’s Eliminate It Instead

The Trump Administration is warning Congress that we will need to raise the debt ceiling by September. Congress should take this as an opportunity to eliminate it entirely.

Appeals Court To Hear Argument Today In Case That Could Upend Obamacare

Later today, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals will hear argument in a case that could upend the Affordable Care Act.

1975 Warren vs 1975 Biden on Busing

A law review article written when the former was a student provides an interesting contrast.

June Jobs Numbers Bust Past Expectations But Uncertainty Remains

June’s jobs report brought in stronger than expected numbers but the fact that these numbers have not been consistent all year makes one wonder what the state of the economy really is.

Trump’s 2020 Campaign Kickoff Speech Unsurprisingly Filled With Lies

Not surprisingly, the President’s opening speech of the 2020 campaign was filed with lies.

Four Years After The Worst Escalator Ride In History

Four years ago, Donald Trump began his campaign for President. What has followed has been as bad as could have been predicted that day.

The Economic Recovery Is Ten Years Old, How Much Longer Can It Last?

The current economic recovery turns ten years old this month, but it can’t last forever.

Donald Trump And The Triumph Of The Conservative Grifters

At least some conservatives appear to finally be recognizing that their movement has been taken over by grifters and frauds. The only question is, what took them so long?

Slower May Jobs Growth Adds To Fears Of Economic Downturn

May’s Jobs Report came back with disappointing jobs growth, suggesting that the economy may be slowing down.

Trump Underperforming In Texas

A new poll of Texas voters shows President Trump doing worse than expected against potential Democratic challengers. Should Republicans be worried?

Republican Apocalypse … Now?

David Brooks joins the long line of commenters predicting the GOP’s demise.

Russian Trolls Using Social Media To Spread Anti-Vaccine Propaganda

A new report indicates that Russian social media trolls are involved in spreading anti-vaccination propaganda in the United States and elsewhere.

EU Elections Show Continued Voter Frustrations

The transatlantic rejection of elite consensus that began with Brexit continues.

Economic Growth Beats Expectations But Isn’t Much To Write Home About

First quarter economic growth came in higher than expected, but there are several caveats worth keeping an eye on.

Could Sanders Be the Democrats’ Trump?

In 2016, a crowded Republican field yielded an unlikely nominee. Could history repeat itself in 2020?

Andrew Marshall Dead at 97

The legendary figure was in charge of strategic forecasting at the Pentagon for decades.

Justices Divided on Partisan Gerrymandering

Oral argument hints that we may have a 5-4 ruling allowing state legislatures to continue stacking the deck.

Electoral Vote Map

A new tool for looking at possible Presidential election outcomes.

Roger Stone Indicted In Russia Probe

Roger Stone, who worked with the Trump campaign in an official and unofficial capacity throughout the campaign, has been indicted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

Theresa May Survives No-Confidence Vote But The Future Remains Unclear

Theresa May survived the Labour Party’s call for a no-confidence vote, but the future for her and for her country remain as hazy as ever.

Budget Deficit On Pace To Exceed $1 Trillion For Current Fiscal Year

Two years of Republican control of the Legislative and Executive Branches has put us back on a path toward $1 trillion budget deficits.

Federal Judge Strikes Down Affordable Care Act As Unconstitutional

Eight years after it was signed into law, a Federal Judge has ruled the Affordable Care Act to be unconstitutional.